مطالب

This research aims to rank the non-breakable factors influencing currency crises in Iran. It analyzes the influential variables using Bayesian averaging methods and seasonal data from 2001 to 2021. Unlike classical methods, Bayesian analysis incorporates uncertainty and prior information in model and parameter selection, providing a more accurate assessment of the significance and impact of each variable on currency crises. By integrating uncertainty into the model, Bayesian techniques enhance the precision of determining key influential variables. The findings indicate that among all the identified influencing variables, nine key variables play a significant role in exchange rate fluctuations. These variables include the export-to-output ratio, exchange rate gap from equilibrium rate, inflation, and the uncertainty index, which are crucial in determining exchange rate movements. Additionally, imbalanced liquidity growth and rising inflation exacerbate pressure on the exchange rate, increasing the likelihood of currency crises. Excessive liquidity expansion, coupled with inflationary pressures, leads to financial instability. This research not only identifies the primary determinants of currency crises but also underscores the necessity for economic policy reforms. The results from the Bayesian model show that variables consistently maintaining their impact despite other factors are recognized as "non-breakable." These non-breakable factors should be prioritized in economic policymaking to ensure financial stability. By considering these critical variables in policy decisions, economic authorities can adopt more effective strategies to prevent currency crises and mitigate adverse economic effects.

Objective: The primary aim of this study was to integrate the role of social networks and subjective norms into the theoretical framework of the investment model of relationships to predict marital stability among divorce-seeking couples in the city of Ilam. Methods: This research employed a correlational design. The statistical population included all divorce-seeking couples in Ilam during 2019–2020 who visited family courts, counseling centers, and divorce registry offices. A sample of 160 participants was selected using convenience sampling. Data collection utilized the following instruments: the Marital Instability Index (Edwards et al., 1987), the Social Networks in Marital Relationships Scale (researcher-developed, 2019), the Subjective Norms in Marital Relationships Scale (researcher-developed, 2019), and Rusbult’s Investment Model Scale (1980). Data analysis was conducted using path analysis via AMOS version 23. Findings: The findings indicated that the tested model exhibited acceptable fit. Significant positive correlations were found between marital satisfaction and marital commitment, while significant negative correlations were observed between the quality of alternative relationships and marital commitment. Additionally, relationship investment and marital commitment were significantly positively correlated. A significant relationship was identified between marital commitment and marital instability at the level of p<0.05. However, no significant relationship was observed between social networks and marital commitment or between subjective norms in marital relationships and marital commitment. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that marital commitment mediated the relationship between satisfaction with the relationship and marital instability (p≤.05), the quality of alternative relationships and marital instability (p≤.05), relationship investment and marital instability (p≤.01), and subjective norms and marital instability (p≤.05). However, marital commitment did not significantly mediate the relationship between the influence of social networks in marital relationships and marital instability. Conclusion: Based on the findings and the role of subjective norms and social networks within Rusbult’s investment model, the results of this study can be utilized in counseling centers to enhance and prevent the instability of marital relationships.

The concept of myth within the Qur’an has been a subject of extensive scholarly inquiry among Orientalists, offering diverse perspectives and methodologies. Angelika Neuwirth, a prominent Qur’anic scholar, has made significant contributions to this field by examining the Qur’anic historical narratives and proposing a connection between these narratives and the concept of myth. In her view, myths function as narratives that employ archetypes to illuminate and interpret the world. To substantiate her claims, Neuwirth adopts a contextual approach, drawing upon the methodologies of biblical criticism. Emphasizing microstructures and contextual details of Qur’anic verses, this approach aims to uncover the origins of the stories and historical narratives in the Qur’an, attributing them to the social and theological milieu of early Muslims. It posits that these narratives are deeply rooted in the socio-theological milieu of early Muslims. Aligning with this approach, Neuwirth characterizes numerous Qur’anic stories and events as myths that have been shaped by archetypes embedded in the collective unconscious of the Qur’an’s audience. This paper employs a descriptive-analytical methodology, coupled with a comprehensive review of relevant literature, to critically evaluate the methodological underpinnings and presuppositions of the contextual approach to Qur’anic myth. Neuwirth's perspective is examined as a representative of this scholarly trend. The findings of this study reveal that, beyond methodological shortcomings, Neuwirth's approach is subject to several criticisms. These include an overemphasis on context as the sole determinant of Qur’anic knowledge, a neglect of the fundamental distinctions between the Qur’an and the Bible concerning the concept of revelation, and an overlooking of the distinct processes of compilation and canonization that shaped these two texts.

Russia's extensive military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the extensive conse-quences of the continuation of this war have caused the world's food security to face serious challenges due to the fact that these two countries play an important role in the supply and export of grains and oilseeds. This research has sought to use the descriptive-analytical meth-od to test the hypotheses and the library and data collection method to collect data, using the popular Pakistani human security theory, to this Answer the question: What effect did the war between Russia and Ukraine have on the food security of the world? The results indicate that, although the war in Ukraine had quickly disrupted the supply and increased the global price of grains, oilseeds and agricultural inputs, but this process did not continue and therefore with the support measures of countries and International organizations, such as the partial reopen-ing of Black Sea ports through the Black Sea Grain Initiative under the guidance of the Unit-ed Nations, the European Union Solidarity Lines Initiative, increasing global humanitarian efforts, canceling or reducing export restrictions of major food producing and exporting coun-tries. After a period of 4 months since the start of the war in Ukraine, from May 2022 on-wards, the markets have gradually become flexible and adaptable in the face of this crisis, and the prices have returned to the pre-war level by August 2022. This trend improved the adverse effects of the Ukraine crisis on the world's food security significantly and the fear of a contin-uous lack of grain in the world market did not come true.