علیرضا قباشی

This research aims to rank the non-breakable factors influencing currency crises in Iran. It analyzes the influential variables using Bayesian averaging methods and seasonal data from 2001 to 2021. Unlike classical methods, Bayesian analysis incorporates uncertainty and prior information in model and parameter selection, providing a more accurate assessment of the significance and impact of each variable on currency crises. By integrating uncertainty into the model, Bayesian techniques enhance the precision of determining key influential variables. The findings indicate that among all the identified influencing variables, nine key variables play a significant role in exchange rate fluctuations. These variables include the export-to-output ratio, exchange rate gap from equilibrium rate, inflation, and the uncertainty index, which are crucial in determining exchange rate movements. Additionally, imbalanced liquidity growth and rising inflation exacerbate pressure on the exchange rate, increasing the likelihood of currency crises. Excessive liquidity expansion, coupled with inflationary pressures, leads to financial instability. This research not only identifies the primary determinants of currency crises but also underscores the necessity for economic policy reforms. The results from the Bayesian model show that variables consistently maintaining their impact despite other factors are recognized as "non-breakable." These non-breakable factors should be prioritized in economic policymaking to ensure financial stability. By considering these critical variables in policy decisions, economic authorities can adopt more effective strategies to prevent currency crises and mitigate adverse economic effects.