درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

The positive impacts of fiscal policy could be undermined when accompanied by uncertainty. We examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic activities in the provinces of Iran. It includes production, investment, unemployment, and economic participation of the active workforce in these provinces, taking into account the effects of economic sanctions imposed on the economy. We employed two types of shocks: fiscal level shock (representing fiscal policy) and its volatility shock (as fiscal policy uncertainty), which derived from a specified fiscal reaction function. We estimated a Panel VAR model using provincial data from 2003 to 2020. The results of the impulse response function indicated that following the impulse in the fiscal policy uncertainty, the response shows an increase in the unemployment rate in the short run, a decrease in the capital investment, and an increase in the inflation rate in the short and medium terms. In the medium and long term, the response indicates a decrease in GDP growth and a reduction in the economic participation rate of the active workforce.

The implementation of an effective tax system requires specific conditions, among the most critical being equity and efficiency. Taxation on income must align with the principle of the ability to pay; therefore, governments strive to set tax rates appropriately and impactfully. An disproportionate increase in income tax rates can lead to significant social repercussions on income distribution and public welfare. Consequently, calculating the optimal tax rate to maximize social welfare is deemed essential. This paper models the strategic interaction between taxpayers and the tax authority to achieve an optimal tax rate and identifies the factors influencing this rate. By designing a game among taxpayers, assumed to be uniformly distributed within the interval [0, 1], and evaluating the revenue generation of the tax authority, the paper delves into the game formulation and analyses the results. Findings indicate that the optimal tax rate exhibits an inverse relationship with the assessment rates set by investigating groups. Additionally, under specific conditions, the optimal performance tax rate has been determined to be 18%.

The exchange rate is a critical variable that impacts the economy in the international environment. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the two approaches to exchange rate determination outlined in the Law on Permanent Decrees of the Country's Development Programs under economic sanctions. The analysis involves a theoretical discussion of a set of mathematical equations and software results, obtained from the algebraic and numerical solving of a simulated version of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in the context of the international economy for a small open economy. The model is calibrated using the structural parameters of the Iranian economy. The criterion for evaluating the rule and comparing it with other policy options is the "stability" of macroeconomic variables, a key aspect of the Resistive Economy Strategy as the obliging basic document in economic policy-making and planning. The stability is quantified using the "Variance" index. Based on the results of this study, the adoption of the rule-based inflationary exchange rate determination approach, compared with the contingency approach to exchange rate determination, on the one hand, offers the possibility of achieving lower inflation rates and exchange rate growth pace. On the other hand, it will reduce the instability of selected macroeconomic variables, which is desirable from the perspective of the overall policies of the resistance economy strategy. Therefore, it is recommended that, in the presence of foreign economic sanctions, the economic authority should implement inflationary rule of exchange rate determination based on the current inflation rate.

This study explores the considerable significance of candlestick chart patterns as a foundational asset within the realm of stock market analysis and prediction. As a graphical representation of historical price movements and patterns, Candlestick charts offer a distinct and valuable perspective for understanding how the financial market operates. This perspective assists us in accurately pinpointing the most advantageous times for making decisions to buy or sell financial securities, such as stocks or bonds. These charts provide insights into market trends and potential trading opportunities. We adopt an innovative approach by harnessing image processing techniques to extract and analyze patterns from Candlestick charts systematically. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of visual data in financial analysis, particularly in times of market volatility and uncertainty. Investors often resort to technical analysis strategies when confronted with erratic market trends, often relying on insights derived from chart-based analysis to guide their decision-making processes. By meticulously extracting essential insights from candlestick charts, our study aims to provide investors with more efficient and less error-prone tools. Ultimately, this endeavor contributes to the enhancement of decision-making precision and the mitigation of risks inherent in participating in the dynamic stock market landscape.

The development of the nation’s economy is supported by the growing diversity and enthusiasm of interest among academics, particularly in the transforming procedures with an entrepreneurial orientation. The study investigates changing entrepreneurial-oriented practices and the performance of SMEs utilizing a cross-sectional survey amongst the four top grocery registered SMEs operating in Ikorodu local government division of Lagos State, Nigeria. The tool for gathering data is a questionnaire with two sections: bio-data and research questions. While 100 respondents formed the sample size proportionally selected from the study focus. Pearson correlation is the statistical tool for data analysis. The study reveals that creativeness and alleviation of business loss have a highly significant impact on SMEs performance; with pro-activeness having a weak, but positive relevance on SMEs performance. In conclusion, to further improve and optimize entrepreneurial orientation practices and adapt to future threatening changes, firms need to strengthen the desire for healthy competition, identifying and targeting the weaknesses of their competitors. It is recommended that more innovativeness should be sought after as guiding principles for capability and adaptability to handle the complexity of the ever-changing business surrounding, while involvement in risk-taking should be adopted with inevitable zeal and willingness to attain organizational growth and improved performance. Pro-activeness should be given adequate consideration to maintain and surpass existing performance as opportunities come but once. Despite study limitations, future researchers may need to enlarge the sample size and create awareness of research conducted on SMEs generally. Keywords: Change, Entrepreneurial orientation, Performance, Practices, SMEs.

Objective: The tourism sector, a significant component of the global service industry, is vital for a nation’s economic development and income generation. Therefore, it is essential to ascertain the factors influencing the demand for this type of service. The main aim of this study is to examine the impact of exchange rates on tourism demand in Iran. Methods: This study examined the long-term and short-term relationships between Iran’s tourism arrivals and variables such as the exchange rate, political risk, and other factors influencing tourism demand, including inflation, foreign investment, oil revenue, GDP, and population, employing time series data from 1995 to 2024 and the Dynamic ARDL simulation method. Results: The results indicate that political risk significantly detrimentally affects Iran’s tourism demand, whereas the exchange rate has a notable positive influence. Since 2010, when the fourth round of sanctions began, political risk has escalated owing to internal and external conflicts, negatively impacting international tourism demand. Conclusions: The interplay between exchange rate variables and political risk was found to positively influence tourism demand. The increase in the exchange rate decreases the costs of tourism services, and also stimulates creative business endeavors in the tourism industry.