درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

Industrial investment in Iran, especially in the wake of sanctions’ intensification in the 2010s, decreased significantly. The government implemented fiscal policy which has been associated with uncertainty. In this paper, using a dynamic panel model and generalized method of moments, we examined the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran over the period 2002-2020. The results indicated that the growth of fiscal level shock,resulted in a low but positive effect on investment directly. However,the coefficient of cross effect between the growth of fiscal level shock and the fiscal policy uncertainty undermined the positive effect on industrial investment. The government has had two effects on industrial investment indirectly through the demand side shock. By creating demand, it has had a positive effect on industrial investment with the cross effect between the growth of the fiscal level shock and industrial sales. However, on the other hand, the growth of the fiscal level shock has been associated with the creation and growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, so that the cross effect between the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty and the growth of industrial sales on industrial investment shows a high negative coefficient. The results of these two effects suggest that due to high uncertainty,the indirect government effect on investment in 24 industrial groups is negative, which happens through the demand-side shock. Moreover, the growth of fiscal policy uncertainty, sanctions, and interest rates, respectively, have had the most adverse effect on investment in 24 industrial groups in Iran.

Given the increasing importance of achieving low and stable inflation rate during the last decades, adopting the most suitable practices to implement monetary policies has always been of concern by monetary authorities of different countries. Inflation targeting (IT) regime is the most recent strategy to guide monetary policies that have been introduced following the occurrence of exchange rate targeting and monetary targeting problems. In this respect, in the present research, the performance of a number of IT countries versus that of the non-targeting ones was first investigated employing the difference in difference (DID) method. Then, considering monetary and oil shocks, IT performance in production gap in the economy of Iran was practically examined using smooth transition autoregressive regression (STAR) model. The Results indicated that implementation of IT policy was successful in applying the four main and most influential indicators in the production of treatment countries. In addition, it was revealed that variables such as IT, oil shock, and facility and exchange rates had a statistically negative effect on production shock in the economy of Iran. However, the monetary shock was found to have a statistically positive impact on production shock. Therefore, according to the findings regarding the successful performance of targeting countries, policymakers are recommended to implement IT policy during a long-term interval in order to stabilize it and also provide its prerequisites in the economy of Iran. JEL classification: E31, E58, E52.