درخت حوزه‌های تخصصی

The United States is the world's first producer and consumer of oil and play a special role in international oil market relations. In a sense, due to the differences in the energy programs of the parties of this country, we will see significant changes in the international energy markets. The Trump's economic thinking in business field is based on the neo-mercantilist while the Democrats believe in global and multilateral trade. The most important energy policies of the Republican Party are the development and expansion of fossil fuel production, increasing the share of the oil market, lifting environmental restrictions, confronting OPEC, and unilateralism in the oil and gas trade. In contrast, the Democrats' most important plans in the US election are to return to the Paris Agreement and re-impose environmental restrictions, reduce oil production through legal sanctions such as taxes, expand renewable energy and use financial resources to manage the oil market and trade convergence. The main question of this article is what effect do US parties energy programs have on the oil market? The method of this research is a qualitative in a descriptive-analytical manner using desk research.

Since the 1970’s developing and developed countries have experienced unprecedented public debt levels. This surge in public debt has emphasized the importance of public debt management. Since risks such as reducing economic growth, increasing inflation, and depreciation of the national currency accompany unplanned public debt accumulation, governments should be alert not to endanger economic growth with ill-considered borrowing. In this paper, we aim to analyze Iran’s external debt variations concerning major macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth as a proxy of economic growth, inflation, and sovereign oil generated incomes. The method that is applied in this research is cross wavelet transform which is a powerful mathematical approach for analyzing the financial data.      Our results show there are different patterns in small and large scales between variables and external debt as a dependent variable has different relations with endogenous and exogenous factors. In the short run, low oil prices as an exogenous variable, during the 1980s have shaped governments’ debt accumulation behavior but on larger scales, indigenous variables such as governments’ budget deficits have been much more dominant in shaping governments borrowing patterns. In a chronological view, US cruel sanctions and the Iran-Iraq war were major events affecting sovereign borrowing behavior.

In this paper, we study the identification problem of parameters of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with emphasis on structural constraints, in order to make the number of observable variables is equal to the number of exogenous variables. We derive a set of identifiability conditions and suggest a procedure for a thorough analysis of identification at each point in the parameters space. The procedure can be applied, before DSGE models are estimated, to determine where identification fails. We also use a Monte Carlo simulation and study the effect of restrictions on the estimate. The results show that the use of restrictions for estimation, when identification is reduced, leads us to inaccurate estimates and unreliable inference even when the number of observations is large.

Development of e-banking has empirically modified the structure and characters of banks’ performance, efficiency, risk and challenges which have also been articulately recognized based on the international best practices. E-banking brazenly accelerates and restructures financial transactions via enhancing technology and expanding the banking services in comparison with conventional banking. Accordingly, online access to the banks’ products, financial statements, payment services and even credit scoring has considerably improved banks-customers relationships in the context of lending and borrowing practice, deposit composition, investment opportunities, trade finance options as well as account management diversification. The impact of recent e-banking developments is statistically evaluated for Iran’s banking network via Dynamic Panel Data approach. The findings highlight that the ratio of ATMs and Electronic Cards transactions to banks' assets negatively-significantly influence the profitability due to higher substitution ratio with the other payment instruments and maintenance cost. The ratio of online branch transactions to the banks' assets negatively-insignificantly affects the profitability owing to the rapid increase in the NPLs and loan/loss expenses which has consequently shrunk Shared Revenues over the past 10 years. SWIFT-branches have positively-significantly enhanced the banks internal-secured cash flow while contemporaneously improves fund efficiency, banks’ services fees, and ultimately profit margin.

Innovations in electronic banking in Iran have led to the development in capacities such as payment instruments and transactions by cards, which are known as electronic payment equipment in the Iranian banking network. Financial supervision is required to be increasingly based on reporting and regulatory processes to efficiently and proactively monitor risk and compliance at banks and financial institutions. Besides, the banking system needs relevant information and instruments on strategy, assessments, and policy decisions in line with the required procedure to enhance transparency. Designing a new criterion in banking innovations by combining the Electronic banking instruments, considering the Electronic banking capacity proper and scaled to the banks’ assets, equity and resources as well as distinguishing the impact of banks’ profitability and capital are attributed as the key contributions in this paper rather than other similar researches. Results indicate that Electronic Banking capacities including the pin-pad, ATM, online branches, card services, and P.O.S volumes have positively and significantly influenced transparency since scales of these innovative capacities have expanded relative to the banks' assets and capital due to their contributions in the velocity and disclosure of data collection and analysis potentials. Results also denote that the state-owned banks in Iran are less transparent than private banks and the size of the bank hurts transparency. The return on equity in the form of bank ownership is multiplied as well as results also indicate that the productivity of equity returns has a positive effect on transparency. The ratio of non-interest income to total income also has a positive impact on transparency. There would be needed to provide transparent information on fee-based services to develop non-interest income. Hence, to improve transparency, the development of fee-based and non-profit-based services are required.

Nowadays, predicting the financial behavior of investors plays a crucial role in decision-making and the financial policy-making process. This study is aimed at providing a paradigm to predict the financial behavior of investors in Iran’s stock market. 24 experts were interviewed to identify the variables, and 24 variables were identified. The interpretive structural paradigming was carried out using a self-interaction matrix based on the experts’ opinions. The MICMAC analysis has been used to identify the types of the variables. As findings of the study, a five-level paradigm was determined, in which environmental factors and the background of financial behavior on the fifth level were the most influential variables and also arbitrage, bias, and the perceptual mistake were the most impressible variables of the paradigm on the first level. MICMAC analysis of this study suggested that the variable of environmental factors had low dependence and high efficacy. Furthermore, psychological projection, perceptual mistake, arbitrage, and bias are dependent variables with high dependence and low efficacy. Other variables are mediator variables with high dependence and effectiveness.