حسین فراهانی

Purpose- Climate change has negative effects on the economic, social, and environmental aspects of rural households. Given the importance of the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of rural people, this study was conducted with the aim of reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience and adaptation to these conditions in Mashhad Township.Design/methodology/approach- The statistical population of the study is 11,706 rural households in Mashhad Township, out of which 372 households were selected proportionally by multistage stratified random sampling based on Cochran’s formula. The main tool of the research was a questionnaire whose validity was examined through content validity, structural validity, and reliability by composite reliability and Cronbach’s alpha (a= 0.9). The data were analyzed using SPSS and LISREL software. To examine the fit of the measurement model of the effects of climate change on sustainable livelihoods, the collected data were analyzed using second-order confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL software.Findings- The results of the study showed that the greatest impact of climate change was on financial capital, including income reduction, increased costs and increased product prices, reduced productivity and employment. In addition, the greatest effects of climate change on social capital include were on reduced sense of belonging and increased dependence on government support; on human capital include a were on reduced health levels and quality of life; and on natural capital include a were on reduced land resources and pressure and occurrence of hazards; and on physical capital were on reduced services and facilities for people. The research findings also showed that the goodness-of-fit indices (AGFI=0.91, GFI=0.91), (NNFI=0.91, CFI= 0.92), and (RMSEA= 0.073, X2/df= 2.97) confirmed an excellent fit of the measurement model of the effects of climate change on sustainable livelihoods with observed data. In addition, the results of structural equation modeling showed that the greatest impacts of climate change among livelihood capitals were respectively related to physical, financial, natural, social and human capitals.

Purpose- Rural tourism has various effects on the economic and social aspects of rural households. Considering the significant impact of tourism on the economic and social development of local communities, this research aims to investigate the economic and social effects of rural tourism in Baft County.Design/methodology/approach- The statistical population consists of 2512 households in the rural of Baft Township, out of which 333 households were selected through simple random sampling based on Cochran's; formula. The primary tool for data collection was a questionnaire, the validity of which was examined through content and structural validity, and its reliability was assessed using composite reliability and Cronbach's; alpha (α = 0.90). Data analysis was performed using SPSS and LISREL software. To examine the fit of the measurement model of economic and social effects on rural tourism; the collected data were analyzed using LISREL software and second-order confirmatory factor analysis.Findings- The research findings indicate that the most significant impact is on the economic dimension, including employment and income, investment, and satisfaction. Moreover, the most prominent effects in the social dimension include social participation, protection of intangible heritage, sense of place, heritage and tradition preservation, tourist satisfaction, education and awareness, and ultimately, cultural elevation. The research findings also revealed that the absolute fit indices (AGFI = 0.91, GFI = 0.94), comparative fit indices (NNFI = 0.92, CFI = 0.95), and parsimonious fit indices (RMSEA = 0.054, X2/df = 2.63) confirm the excellent fit of the measurement model of economic and social effects on rural tourism with the observed data. Furthermore, the structural equation modelling results indicate that the most signicant impacts are in the economic dimension of employment and income and the social dimension of social participation.