سید حسین میرجلیلی

Financial Sector includes financial institutions, financial instruments, financial markets, regulations over the financial sector, and policy-making organizations in the financial sector. Financial institutions that collect deposits of the public are consist of governmental(governmental and developmental) and private banks, non-banking financial institutions, credit unions, and Gharz-ul-Hassanah Funds. Commercial insurance companies, social insurances, pension funds are contractual financial intermediaries within the Iranian economy. Investment companies that invest in securities act as investment financial institutions. In the money market, there exist banks, non-banking financial institutions, credit unions, and Gharz-ul-Hasanah Funds. The most important capital market institution in Iran is the Tehran Stock Exchange and there is no derivatives market. Financial instruments within the financial sector of the Iranian economy are stocks, Participation certificates of advantageous projects, and short term and long term deposits in banks. The major regulations over the financial sector in Iran are the law for interest-free banking operation, monetary and banking law, establishment law for securities exchange and the law for issuance methods of participation certificates, and the establishment law for central insurance of Iran and insurer. Some of the challenges within the financial sector of Iran are as follows: Bank-base-system of the financial sector, government's intervention in profit rate assignment and provision of compulsory facilities, lack of presence of private sector within the derivative market, taking effects of monetary policy from fiscal policies and the non-diversified securities within the capital market.

Islamic banks had demonstrated significant resilience during the global financial crisis, because of relying on real economic activities , avoiding toxic financial derivatives, and keeping higher liquid assets. However, they were vulnerable afterward in economic crisis. Canadian banks as an example of the most successful conventional banks during both the global financial and economic crisis, also had demonstrated significant resilience, because of institutional setting, prudential regulator, high capital-asset ratio, leverage cap, and conservative mortgage market. Islamic banks can learn from this experience and make a reform on liquidity management , corporate governance and consider the experience of resilient conventional banks.

This paper examines potential output with alternative methods for the period 1978-2008 using annual data of the Iranian economy. We applied Hodrick - Prescott Filter, Production Function and SVAR methods for estimation of annually potential output. The results show that the turning points for these methods look similar and almost produce similar results for output gap. Also the estimated potential output and output gap are conformed to economic and political events as output gap has decreased in war period (1980-1989) because of war expenditures, reducing production and therefore decreasing GDP. Also Iranian economy has been faced with negative output gap and therefore a severe recession because of the crisis in South East Asia in late 1990s. Gap trend is uprising after 2005 for the reason that happening oil shock and economic advancement for increasing oil income.