مرتضی مجیدیان

Exporting agricultural products is considered as one of the strategies for developing non-oil exports and achieving sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Saffron, as an export commodity, holds particular significance in Iran's non-oil exports. Given Iran's position among the top four saffron-exporting countries globally, this study aims to prioritize Iran's saffron target markets based on market competition indices and calculate its relative advantage and export stability index in the world market and Iran's export target countries. Comparison of the global market structure of the product during 2003 to 2022 revealed that despite the significant shares of Iran, Spain, England, and Nigeria in most years, the market structure has been characterized by a multi-sided monopoly, open and closed, and in some years dominated by oligopoly, indicating an increase in the number of competitors and the competitiveness of the export market for this product. Iran, with an average share of 13.6% in the saffron export market and producing over 80% of saffron, does not have a direct share in global exports, and most of Iran's saffron is exported to countries such as the UAE, Spain, China, and Oman, and then re-exported to other countries, for which strategies such as market expansion and branding need to be prioritized. The results showed that in 2022, four countries, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Iran, and Spain, accounted for 93% of the total world exports, and Iran ranked second in terms of export volume in the saffron export market during the study period. Also, Iran had an export stability index of less than one (0.96) but the trend of this index indicates a decrease in Iran's stability. The results showed that the majority of Iran's saffron exports are concentrated in only four countries, with the composition of these countries varying over time. To enhance market stability and growth, it is crucial to expand the target export markets. Prioritization should be given to China, UAE, Spain, India, USA, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and Kuwait, with average priority ranks of 4.15, 6.85, 7.7, 7.95, 8.9, 12.3, 14.35, 15.25, 15.5, and 16.45 respectively. Furthermore, the results indicated that the export market for saffron is oligopolistic. Therefore, it is essential for all exporting countries to collaborate in determining the price and market share for each country. This collaborative approach can help in stabilizing the market, ensuring fair pricing, and promoting sustainable growth in the saffron industry.