سید حسین میرجلیلی

In the decade of 1979-1988, there was no development plan in Iran. During 1989-2022, six development plans implemented in Iran’s economy. The assessment of development plans conducted based on the performance and the results of economic indicators over the period. Economic Growth over the course of development plans was volatile. There has been a double-digit inflation rate over the course of the development plans and Productivity and the distribution of income indices were volatile. The challenges of planning in Iran include lack of common understanding on basic concepts of development plans, challenges of comprehensive plan, essential change due to external shocks, time span, parallel initiatives, coordination failure and lack of independent evaluation entity.

In Iran, especially in the aftermath of economic sanctions of the 2010s, and the intensification of the government's budget deficit, since 2012, there was a diminishing investment, followed by a decrease in production which led to stagnation in the economy. The government plays its economic role by implementing fiscal policy. However, when it is associated with uncertainty, the effectiveness of fiscal policy may be undermined. Therefore, we need to measure the uncertainty of fiscal policy in Iran. We measured the uncertainty index of fiscal policy in Iran using a specified fiscal reaction function. In this function, there are two types of shocks. First, fiscal level shock and second, volatility shock which is a proxy for fiscal policy uncertainty. To this end, we employ particle-filter to estimate fiscal policy uncertainty in Iran. In this paper, by measuring the structural budget balance function for Iran, we utilize it as a dependent variable. The results indicate that the trend of balance or total budget deficit has a compliance with the trend of balance or structural budget deficit for Iran suggesting that the nature of government budget in Iran is a structural one, and in the 2010s the sanctions, adversely affected on the government budget. In 2012, the intensification of sanctions led to the increase in the uncertainty of fiscal policy until 2015 that the trend of fiscal policy uncertainty was mildly downward. In 2017, the uncertainty index of Iran's fiscal policy has increased rapidly until it reached its maximum in 2020, in which the economy did not face with such uncertainty for fiscal policy since 1979.

Financial sanctions have economic consequences for the oil-dependent economies. We examined the impact of financial sanctions on exchange rate fluctuations and macroeconomic variables in Iran. To this end, we employed a new Keynesian DSGE model. The results indicated that with the shock in foreign exchange, production (Y) and imports initially decreased. Oil production has shown a positive reaction initially and a negative reaction in the medium term, and after 7 periods, the effect of the shock has disappeared. The capital stock (K) also decreased initially, and in two periods, it reacted positively. In the tenth period, its effect disappeared, and in the long term, it became partially negative, and its effect disappeared. The inflation rate has decreased initially, and its effect disappeared over time. Consumption decreased, and after five cycles, the reaction became positive and then disappeared. The interest rate increased initially and then decreased, and in the 10th period, the shock effect disappeared. The exchange rate initially decreased and then increased after one period.

Providing financial services for social projects represents corporate social responsibility (CSR), because it indicates ethical commitment for creating better social environment. It improves public image and loyalty of customers, increases the commercial value of the trademark, promote public trust, create confidence of the beneficiaries, and attract valuable resources by the corporate. Corporates have realized that they are responsible for the society in which they operate. We examined the impact of CSR on the efficiency and profitability of banks. The statistical population of the research is 16 banks listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2014-2018. Four variables represent efficiency and profitability. Also, six variables included in the model as control variables. The results indicated a positive and significant effect of social responsibility on the efficiency and profitability of the banks, so that the CSR has most effect on the return on assets, net profit margin and return on equity respectively.