شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی ورزش تربیتی عراق در افق 2033 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ورزش تربیتی به عنوان یکی از زمینه هایی که در تربیت نسل جوان نقش داردْ مطرح است. هدف این پژوهش شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی ورزش تربیتی عراق در افق 2033 بود. پژوهش حاضر از نظر مبانی، تفسیرگرایی، از لحاظ رهیافت پژوهش، استقرایی و از حیث ماهیت، ترکیبی بود. جامعه آماری پژوهش ذی نفعان ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق (اساتید دانشگاه، معلمان، دانشجویان و دانش آموزان) بودند که از بین آن ها 20 نفر به صورت هدفمند به عنوان نمونه آماری انتخاب شدند. برای گردآوری داده ها از ابزارهای مصاحبه و پرسشنامه، برای ممیزی آن از معیارهای لینکلن و گابا (1985) و به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از روش تحلیل-ساختاری استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد، 71 عامل تأثیرگذار، محیط ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق در افق 2033 را شکل می دهند که از بین آن ها 16 عامل دارای اهمیت و عدم قطعیت بسیار زیاد هستند. همچنین پیشران های کلیدی ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق در افق 2033 پنج پیشران با بیشترین امتیاز در عدم قطعیت و اهمیت است که شامل: 1. نرخ رشد اقتصادی کشور عراق، 2. جهت گیری سیاست داخلی، 3. ضریب نفوذ فناوری، 4. سبک زندگی شهروندان و 5. وضعیت گفتمان زیست محیطی می شود؛ درنتیجه لازم است وضعیت آن ها در طراحی برنامه ها و اقدامات ورزش تربیتی کشور عراق به طور ویژه لحاظ شود. در عراق هیچ بازیگری کنترل کامل روی تمامی این مؤلفه ها و پیشران ها ندارد، اما سیاست گذاران و بازیگران با شناخت این عدم قطعیت های راهبردی، فضا و فرصت بیشتری برای کنشگری مناسب در افزایش انطباق پذیری و تاب آوری ورزش تربیتی با نیروهای کلان محیطی دارند.Identifying the key drivers of educational sports in Iraq in the horizon of 2033
Background and Purpose Educational sports are a cornerstone of sports development, playing a critical role in fostering healthy habits and physical activity among youth (Fernández-Martínez et al., 2020). In Iraq, however, educational sports face significant challenges due to a combination of factors, including war, economic crises, international sanctions, and security issues. These challenges have hindered the proper development of educational sports, making it essential to identify key drivers that can shape its future.Educational sports involve activities organized by educational institutions to promote physical fitness, teamwork, and healthy lifestyles. These activities are not only vital for physical health but also contribute to mental well-being and social development (Shahvali Kohshouri et al., 2021). Despite their importance, educational sports in Iraq have been neglected due to the country’s turbulent political and economic environment. To address these issues, this study aims to identify the key drivers influencing the future of educational sports in Iraq by 2033.The study adopts a comprehensive approach, examining Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal (PESTLE) factors that could impact the development of educational sports. By understanding these drivers, policymakers and stakeholders can develop strategies to overcome existing challenges and ensure the sustainable growth of educational sports in Iraq. MethodologyThis study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative techniques to achieve its objectives. From a foundational perspective, the study is interpretive; from a level perspective, it is country-wide; and from a research approach perspective, it is inductive. The study is normative-observatory in nature and was conducted in three steps. ParticipantsThe participants included stakeholders in Iraqi educational sports, such as university professors, teachers, students, and pupils. A purposive sampling method was used to select 20 individuals based on their expertise. In the second and third steps of the study, 14 participants with systematic and strategic insights were selected for further analysis.Data CollectionData were collected through structured interviews and questionnaires. The interview questions were designed to align with the research objectives, while the questionnaire was developed based on qualitative information gathered during the interviews. The questionnaire used a 4-point scoring system (0 = no impact, 1 = low impact, 2 = moderate impact, 3 = high impact) to assess the influence of various factors.Data AnalysisThematic analysis was used to identify PESTLE factors, while structural analysis using MicMac software was employed to determine the importance and uncertainty of these factors. The study also used Lincoln and Guba’s (1985) criteria for evaluating qualitative research, including credibility, transferability, dependability, and confirmability. ResultsThe study identified 71 influential factors shaping the future of educational sports in Iraq by 2033. These factors were categorized into six PESTLE dimensions:Political Factors:Political stability in the countryInternational communications and sanctionsGovernment-private sector cooperationInfluence of national sports organizations in international forumsEconomic Factors:Government sports budgetInvestment in student sportsInfrastructure developmentGDP per capitaSocial Factors:Urbanization and metropolitan livingSocietal attitudes toward sportsMedia coverage of student sportsFamily and social support for sportsTechnological Factors:Technology penetration rate in IraqUse of artificial intelligence and virtual reality in sportsDigitization and online educationEnvironmental Factors:Environmental changes and global warmingHealth levels and environmental discourse in IraqThreats to environmental sportsLegal Factors:Government support for educational sportsAnti-corruption lawsAlignment with international laws and programsThe uncertainty and importance of each factor were assessed using a scoring system, with respondents rating each factor from 0 to 10. Sixteen factors with high importance and uncertainty were selected for further analysis. These included political stability, international sanctions, urbanization, and Iraq’s economic growth rate.Using MicMac software, the study conducted an interaction effects analysis to determine the relationships between these factors. The results revealed that political stability, international sanctions, and urbanization are critical drivers of educational sports in Iraq. Additionally, variables such as Iraq’s economic growth rate, technology penetration, and environmental discourse status were identified as two-way risk and objective variables. DiscussionThe findings highlight the complexity of developing educational sports in Iraq and underscore the need for strategic planning to address the identified drivers. Political stability and international sanctions emerged as the most influential factors, indicating that a stable political environment and positive international relations are essential for the growth of educational sports.Economic factors, such as investment in student sports and infrastructure development, also play a crucial role. Without adequate financial resources, it will be challenging to improve the quality of educational sports programs. Similarly, technological advancements, such as the use of artificial intelligence and virtual reality, can enhance the delivery of sports education and make it more accessible to students.Social factors, including urbanization and societal attitudes toward sports, further complicate the landscape. Urbanization can lead to increased participation in sports, but it also poses challenges related to resource allocation and infrastructure development. Societal attitudes, particularly toward female sports, must also be addressed to ensure inclusivity and equality in educational sports.Environmental and legal factors, while less prominent, cannot be ignored. Environmental changes and global warming may impact the availability of sports facilities, while supportive legal frameworks are necessary to ensure the sustainability of educational sports programs.ConclusionThis study provides a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers influencing the future of educational sports in Iraq. By addressing these drivers, policymakers and stakeholders can develop effective strategies to overcome existing challenges and ensure the sustainable growth of educational sports by 2033. The findings emphasize the need for political stability, economic investment, technological advancements, and social inclusivity to achieve this goal.Article MessageThis study provides a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers affecting the future of scholastic sports in Iraq. By addressing these drivers, policymakers and stakeholders can develop effective strategies to overcome existing challenges and ensure the sustainable growth of scholastic sports by 2033. The findings emphasize the need for political stability, increased economic growth, technological advancements, and a focus on lifestyle and the state of environmental discourse in the country of Iraq to achieve this goal.
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