حسن دلیری

This paper develops a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model with imperfect banking competition and fiscal constraints to evaluate the welfare effects of different Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) designs. The model compares five monetary regimes: a conventional baseline, retail account-based CBDC, retail token-based CBDC, wholesale CBDC, and a hybrid CBDC. Results show that a retail, interest-bearing, account-based CBDC delivers the highest welfare gain, equivalent to a permanent 11.13% increase in consumption, driven by lower transaction costs, greater banking sector competition, and reduced labor tax distortions. A hybrid CBDC generates a moderate welfare gain of 6.04%, while the token-based and wholesale designs offer only marginal improvements. The analysis reveals that the welfare impact of CBDC adoption is highly sensitive to its design features, particularly the utility it provides, the interest rate spread, and the degree of competition it induces in the banking sector. These findings underscore the complexity of CBDC policymaking, where trade-offs between efficiency, inclusion, and financial sector dynamics must be carefully balanced. Policy recommendations emphasize prioritizing user-friendly, account-based CBDC frameworks, enhancing interoperability with existing systems, and adopting a gradual, flexible approach that aligns with country-specific fiscal and financial structures.