تحلیل عوامل کلیدی اجتماعی مؤثر بر تاب آوری شهر زنجان در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی و محیطی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مخاطرات طبیعی و محیطی به دلیل شدت و زمان کوتاه اثر گذاری بر اجتماعات و محلات شهری تبدیل به یکی از دغدغه های اصلی برنامه ریزان و مدیران شهری در سال های اخیر شده است به همین دلیل تقویت اجتماعی شهروندان در یک محیط، نقشی تاثیر گذار در کاهش خطرات دارد. بدین منظور هدف از پژوهش حاضر شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی اجتماعی مؤثر بر تاب آوری شهر زنجان در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی و محیطی می باشد. در این راستا پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، توصیفی-تحلیلی می باشد. جهت گردآوری اطلاعات مورد نیاز نیز از دو روش کتابخانه ای و میدانی بهره گرفته شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر 35 نفر از خبرگان، اساتید دانشگاهی، متخصصان و مجریان حوزه های مدیریت بحران، برنامه ریزی شهری، شهرسازی می باشد برای انتخاب آنها روش نمونه گیری هدفمند استفاده شده است. جهت تجزیه وتحلیل داده ها نیز از نرم افزار Micmac بهره گرفته شده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد براساس نتایج دلفی 87 متغیر در 14 بعد «سلامت، اجتماعی-اقتصادی، انسجام و پیوستگی اجتماعی، حمایت اجتماعی، شبکه اجتماعی، دانش و آگاهی اجتماعی، آموزش و مهارت، اهداف جامعه و اثربخشی، اطلاعات و ارتباطات، قابلیت و دسترسی به خدمات ضروری، باورهای اجتماعی، فرهنگ و ایمان، جرم و امنیت اجتماعی، فرایندها و برنامه های جامعه، اعتماد اجتماعی و نهادی» شناسایی شده است؛ و در نهایت براساس نتایج نرم افزار میک مک نشان می دهد که از مجموع این 87 عامل مؤثر تاب آوری اجتماعی شهر زنجان در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی و محیطی 20 عامل و 2 دو بعد دانش و آگاهی اجتماعی، آموزش و مهارت بیشترین امتیاز را از مجموع امتیازها و به دست آورده اند.Analysis of Key Social Factors Influencing the Resilience of Zanjan City Against Natural and Environmental Hazards
Introduction Although social aspects may not be more important than physical and infrastructural components in crisis management, they are equally significant. In places where crime, homelessness, unemployment, poor nutrition, and inadequate education are prevalent, the emphasis on resilience and disaster prevention cannot be sufficiently emphasized. Thus, the concept of resilience has evolved from an initial ecological meaning to a socio-ecological concept and subsequently to a social one. The city of Zanjan experienced two earthquakes in 2004 and 2005, the most severe of which measured 6 on the Richter scale in 2005, causing significant damage to residential homes. Therefore, this study aims to address the following question: Which aspect of social resilience is effective in empowering citizens against natural and environmental hazards? Methodology This research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in nature. To collect the necessary information, two methods were used: library research and field study. The library research method involved an environmental scanning approach to review theoretical foundations and literature and gather existing dimensions and indicators related to social resilience and empowerment against natural and environmental hazards in the city of Zanjan. The field study method employed the Delphi technique and various questionnaires to complete the required information. The statistical population of this research consisted of 35 experts, university professors, specialists, and practitioners in the fields of crisis management, urban planning, and urban development. A purposive sampling method was used to select individuals. The data analysis was conducted using Micmac software. Results This research examines the social resilience of Zanjan against natural and environmental hazards by identifying and analyzing 87 influential factors. These factors are categorized into five groups: 1. Influential Variables: These have the highest impact, including employment status, economic living standards, and awareness of crisis management.2. Dual Variables: These variables have high influence and susceptibility, such as health insurance coverage and the effectiveness of officials’ actions.3 Independent Variables: These variables have low influence and susceptibility, such as health status and education level.4. Susceptible Variables: These variables have low influence but high susceptibility, such as access to medical centers and adherence to health guidelines.5. Regulatory Variables: These are near the center of gravity on the chart and can be elevated to other categories, such as reducing unemployment and addressing common community issues. This analysis helps improve planning and social resilience. Discussion The initial factors influencing the social resilience of the city of Zanjan against environmental and natural hazards were extracted using the environmental scanning technique and the Delphi method. By reviewing the questionnaires received from experts, a total of 87 factors across 14 different domains were identified as primary variables. These variables were then placed into a cross-impact matrix to assess their influence on each other and on future trends by the experts. Subsequently, these data were entered into the Micmac software for analysis. From the analysis conducted with Micmac, 20 key drivers were identified from the initial 87 factors as the main influencers of the future social resilience of Zanjan against environmental and natural hazards. These key drivers, identified as the primary actors and contributors in planning for Zanjan's social resilience, received the highest scores in the graph of direct and indirect impacts. Conclusion Natural and environmental disasters pose significant challenges to sustainable human societies. Understanding ways to reduce vulnerability and appropriate disaster management planning is of special importance in national policymaking. Social resilience, particularly by maintaining and strengthening the cultural, social, and economic dimensions of a community, is closely linked. The city of Zanjan faces various natural hazards, so it is essential to examine the factors that influence its social resilience. Research in this area has identified 87 primary factors using environmental scanning and Delphi techniques, ultimately pinpointing 20 key influential factors on Zanjan’s social resilience. These factors include public awareness and education, access to emergency services, economic status, government support, and community institutions, all of which play crucial roles in enhancing the city's resilience against natural disasters. Acknowledgments Urban Resilience, Hazards, Social Factors; Futures Studies, Zanjan City.
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