آینده پژوهی استراتژی های مدیریتی اثرگذار بر الگوی اسکان و توسعه پایدار شهر ارومیه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش آینده پژوهی استراتژی های مدیریتی اثرگذار بر الگوی اسکان و اثرات آن بر توسعه پایدار شهر ارومیه است. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. به منظور رتبه بندی و استخراج ماتریس تأثیرگذاری (تحلیل ساختاری و متقاطع) از نرم افزار میک مک، سناریو ویزارد و تفکیک سناریوها و طیف سه گان با رویکرد آینده نگاری استفاده شد. به منظور شناسایی پیشران های کلیدی با استفاده از تحلیل پستل و مشارکت هدفمند 31 نفر نخبه و کارشناس اداری اجرایی، 57 پیشران کلیدی در 6 بعد اجتماعی و فرهنگی (S&C)، قانونی (L)، تکنولوژیک (T)، سیاسی (P)، بوم شناختی و محیطی (E&E) و اقتصادی (E) گروه بندی شدند. مطابق نتایج ماتریس اثرگذاری و وابستگی بالقوه مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، ۳ پیشران وجود خلاء و تعارضات قانونی متعدد، تمرکز جغرافیایی فعالیت ها و عدم انسجام و فقدان نظم حقوقی در قوانین و مقررات مربوط به کنترل و هدایت توسعه شهری در رتبه نخست تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و 3 پیشران فقدان تلاش برای ایجاد مدل های توسعه اقتصادی، مهاجرپذیری و فشارهای شهرنشینی و پایداری زیست محیطی در رتبه نخست اثرپذیری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم قرار گرفته اند. باتوجه به وضعیت های گوناگون، احتمال وقوع 5 سناریو از میان 11 سناریو کلی نشان دهنده وضعیت تقریبا ایستا پیش روی توسعه پایدار کلان شهر ارومیه است. طبق نتایج، اجرای طرح ها و پروژه های مکمل جریان توسعه پایدار در زمینه های طبیعی، جغرافیایی، تاریخی، فضایی کالبدی، مذهبی، فرهنگی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی، علمی و.. با سیاست گذاری توسعه منطقه ای و موازی با جهت گیری های آمایش در ارتباط زنجیره ای سکونتگاه ها و ایجاد عدالت فضایی از مهمترین راهکارهای مقابله با جریان ناپایداری الگوی اسکان در شهر ارومیه است.Future Studies of Management Strategies Affecting on Settlement Pattern and Sustainable Development of Urmia City
Introduction: According studies about Urmia City, it raises the necessity of understanding the future and planning for the three fundamental challenges of risk management and uncertainties, sustainable development issues and issues of reviewing management strategies affecting the settlement pattern and its effects on the sustainable development structure of urban areas, which requires new tools and methods for thinking about the future in a very complex and uncertain environment. Methodology: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical and exploratory in terms of methodology. In the first part, in order to identify key drivers using PESTLE analysis, 57 key drivers were grouped according to the type and importance of the issue into 6 dimensions: social and cultural (S&C), legal (L), technological (T), political (P), ecological and environmental (E&E) and economic (E). In order to identify the factors, key factors were grouped by studying the opinions of experts in the field, and sub-components of key factors were identified using the Delphi technique and obtaining the votes of 31 experts. In the second part, using a systemic approach and environmental analysis, influential trends and macro-trends were examined, and after extracting key drivers, foresight was conducted, and then possible scenarios were presented, and by testing these scenarios, the best scenarios were selected. Discussion and Findings: According to studies the centralization of population and services, in the service area of the large cities of the province, and especially the large city of Urmia, the imbalance and disruption in spatial connections between residential areas and spatial structure are clearly evident. If the horizontal development of this metropolis continues for the next 10 years, more than the existing area of the city will inevitably be allocated to urban uses, which will result in the conversion of surrounding farms, gardens and biological centers into residential, service, industrial and other places. Sustainability assessment and evaluation is one of the issues that experts and planners have addressed, and less than two decades after the idea of sustainable development was proposed and used in political and scientific meetings, and methods and indicators - according to specialized fields. A review of the results shows that 13 factors in the impact section had the largest share in direct impact, of which 8 factors were also repeated in indirect impact with slight changes in the ranking. Only two factors, "migration and urbanization pressures" and "environmental sustainability", have changed in the ranking. Also, in the indirect impact section, the factors "the impact of sanctions and international policies" and "the challenge of sustainable regional security" have been moved in the ranking. In the impact section, the first 13 factors in direct impact are the same factors in indirect impact with some changes in the ranking. Conclusion: According to the research findings, the key factors of sustainable urban development can be classified in terms of impact and impact. In this regard, 57 factors have been examined and classified into two categories of impact and impact based on their relative importance. Based on the analysis of the data from the questionnaire, 9 strong or probable scenarios and 11 scenarios with high or acceptable compatibility were identified. Also, 4032 weak scenarios were evaluated. In general, it can be concluded that the main influencing and affected factors in direct and indirect impacts are almost the same.
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