سناریوهای روابط ایران و چین در افق 2030 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در دوره ظهور چین، افول نسبی ایالات متحده آمریکا و روند تمایل کشورهای آسیایی به چین، انعقاد تفاهم نامه میان ایران و چین و آینده آن، اهمیت فزاینده ای یافته است. این مقاله، با نظر به عدم قطعیت های موجود در روابط دو کشور، همچون تأثیرات ژئوپلیتیکی و سیاسی در منطقه و جهان، تحریم ها، تغییرات سیاسی در منطقه و رقابت های سیاسی-اقتصادی آن و تحولات سیاسی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی در دو کشور، سناریوهای احتمالی روابط سیاسی ایران و چین را در افق 2030 بررسی می کند. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف از نوع تحقیقات توسعه ای-کاربردی و از نظر روش جزو تحقیقات هنجاری آینده پژوهانه بوده که با استفاده از روش پژوهش تحلیل اسناد، مصاحبه های نیمه ساختاریافته با نخبگان و خبرگان و نیز روش سناریوپردازی (عدم قطعیت های بحرانی) برای تحقق اهداف استفاده کرده است. نتایج بررسی ها حاکی از آن است که آینده جهان قابل پیش بینی نیست اما اینکه آینده روابط ایران با چین به سمت همکاری های راهبردی خواهد رفت یا نه، به عوامل زیادی بستگی دارد از جمله سیاست هایی که چین، ایران، ایالات متحده و سایر کشورهای منطقه غرب آسیا از هم اکنون تا سال 2030 دنبال می کنند. با وجود همه این عدم قطعیت ها تا سال 2030، محتمل ترین سناریوها، «اژدها با احتیاط می راند»، «اژدها در اقلیم امپراتور تنها» و «اژدها در خانه امپراتور» خواهند بود.Scenarios of Iran-China Relations in the Horizon of 2030
Introduction: Political relations between different countries, including Iran and China, is one of the youngest and most dynamic areas of study in political science. Considering the geopolitical and economic developments in the world in recent decades, analyzing bilateral relations between Iran and China in the 2030 horizon is of great importance. Because the relations between the two countries have a significant impact on the West Asian region and the world, these relations have had widespread effects in the political, economic, security, and cultural spheres. They are considered one of the effective factors in determining the establishment of new power systems and the regional and global balance of power. It is in this context that this article examines the future of international relations between Iran and China in the 2030 horizon.Our research indicates that no studies have been conducted on the future of certain aspects of the relations between the two countries. Therefore, an attempt was made to provide a model for Iran-China relations through a comparative perspective inspired by studies conducted on the relations of other countries with China.Relations between Iran and China, although having a significant impact and importance in the regional and global balance of power, continue to face uncertainties and challenges such as the influence of external factors, geopolitical and political influences in the region and the world, cultural and religious differences, and even developments specific to both countries. Only by understanding and managing these uncertainties can we take a step forward to improve relations between the two countries. Now, given the chaos and high uncertainties of the environment, the best thing to do is to properly observe the international scene, especially the political relations between Iran and China, to achieve logical and compatible alternative futures and build the future on that basis. This future construction can serve as a bridge to achieve cooperation priorities between the two countries and ultimately, design a roadmap for relations between the two countries in the medium and long term time horizon.Research Question: The main question is why, despite the signing of the 25-year agreement between Iran and China, alternative futures have not been identified in the future relations between the two countries. Accordingly, the present study focuses on the main question: What are the scenarios affecting the political relations between Iran and China in the horizon of 2030?Methodology: The present study is an applied developmental research in terms of purpose and one of the normative futuristic researches in terms of method, which has been used to achieve the goals by using the research method of document analysis, semi-structured interviews with elites and experts, as well as the scenario planning method (critical uncertainties) to achieve the goals.Results and discussion: Scenarios are constructed, and this construction cannot be detached from reality; it is a systematic process that utilizes events and trends to create a plausible and possible outcome. Accordingly, based on documentary studies and reference to experts and elites in the field of Iran-China relations, three main axes were identified: 1. Fixed and specific elements, 2. Driving forces, and 3. Key uncertainties in Iran-China relations in the 2030 horizon.In the first axis, fixed and specific elements, Iran's geoeconomic position, civilizational background, and historical and political similarities were mentioned. In the driving forces axis, tools for enhancing China's position, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the establishment of a multilateral financial institution for infrastructure development in Asia, were highlighted as the primary driving force. The second driving force was the role of the United States in Iran-China relations, and the third driving force referred to Iran's foreign policy and its relationship with the Islamic world in the security domain.In the third axis, key uncertainties were explained, indicating that uncertainties are the intersection of fears and hopes, possibilities and impossibilities, and doubts. Accordingly, the key uncertainties were identified and selected based on the experts' opinions, considering two indicators: the high level of uncertainty and the degree of importance of that uncertainty. 1. Uncertainty regarding the level of cooperation or confrontation between China and the United States, and 2. Uncertainty regarding the extent of China's entry into a strategic alliance with Iran.After analyzing each of the three axes, three scenarios were presented in order of priority and probability of occurrence:The first scenario, titled “The Dragon Rides Cautiously,” envisioned an alternative future in which China and the United States are in a balanced confrontation, neither reaching a full agreement nor escalating confrontation. The Sunni bloc has also been able to maintain a balanced cooperation with China. On the other hand, due to the high level of conflicts in the region and Iran's proximity to this geography, Iran and China have only been able to establish limited cooperation in some areas and do not yet have strong strategic relations. Both countries are trying to protect their interests while at the same time avoiding regional and international competition.In the second scenario, titled "Dragon in the Land of the Lonely Emperor," China and the United States reach an agreement that reduces their tensions and improves trade and economic relations between them. Also, the relationship between China and the Sunni bloc is increasing. This situation causes Iran to be geopolitically isolated.The third scenario, titled "Dragon in the Emperor's House," sees weak governance in West Asia with scattered states as the main features shaping China-West Asia relations in 2030; the foreign policies of China and the United States are at the peak of distrust, competition, and an inability to engage responsibly with each other.China's need for imported energy to fuel its economic development has led to greater coordination between China and Iran and allows them to play an active and responsible role in West Asia. As Chinese investments in regional trade grow year-on-year, and West Asian countries become increasingly aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative, tensions affected by the presence of Western security agencies in the region have flared up again, and China, which is concerned about the recruitment of Chinese Muslims for terrorist groups in the region, is launching joint initiatives with Iran to fight terrorism.Conclusion: The future of the world is unpredictable, but whether the future of Iran's relations with China will move toward strategic cooperation or not depends on many factors, including the policies pursued by China, Iran, the United States, and other countries in the West Asian region between now and 2030. Despite all these uncertainties, by 2030, the most likely scenarios will be "Dragon in the Emperor's Lonely Climate", "The Dragon Drives Cautiously" and "The Dragon in the Emperor's House".
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