Political Movements

Apparently, the most common debate in post-revolutionary Iran is the debate between "Tradition" and "Modernity," which ultimately has manifested in the two fronts of "Traditionalism or Fundamentalism" and "Reformism or Moderation." These two fundamental dichotomies have shown themselves in every crisis and transformation, and political parties and movements in Iran have grown and been able to attract public opinion and create a social base on the basis of this general rift in Iranian society. The present study aims to answer the main question of ‘How the future structuring and configuration of political movements in the Islamic Republic of Iran will be?’ And ‘What scenarios can be envisioned in this regard?’ To this aim, a qualitative document analysis method was used and data collected using the tool of fishing from various sources. Additionally, by employing the scenario-writing method, it delves into examining the future structuring and configuration of political movements in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hence, three scenarios or configurations in the arrangement of political forces in Iran are conceivable: Continuation of the arrangement and structuring of political movements in the form of fundamentalism and moderation, reinterpretation and reconstruction of the principles and discursive elements of political movements known as fundamentalist and reformist and formation of a new arrangement and configuration.

The examination of the political, analytical, and operational capacity of Iran's political movements at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels forms the theoretical foundation of this re-search. The relationship between the different levels of each of these capacities is also of great sig-nificance. The present study, with a foundational research approach, provides a conceptual frame-work for analyzing and explaining political, analytical, and operational capacities. Here, political capacity refers to qualifications, abilities, and capabilities. Analytical capacity addresses technical, scientific knowledge and analytical techniques at different levels, and finally, operational capacity emphasizes the ability to execute policies and the coordination between them. Accordingly, politi-cal, analytical, and operational capacities at individual, organizational, and systemic levels form a 9-base model in which the relationships between them are taken into account. Political movement analysis is, in fact, the identification of ideological waves inspired by political schools of thought, which have become the source of political opinion and action, creating movement and change in society. However, this is not merely an intellectual study but a sociological analysis. The research findings show that the challenge facing the Principlists movement, due to its adherence to ideologi-cal principles, lies in its analytical capacity at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels, which has affected all of its capacities. However, reformist movements, despite having a high ana-lytical capacity, are unsuccessful in their political and operational performance due to a lack of control over the main centers of power at various levels.