رابطۀ شاخص های کلان اقتصادی و جرائم مواد مخدر: تحلیل ثانویۀ آمارهای استان های ایران در دهۀ 1390 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
جرائم مواد مخدر به مصرف، توزیع و خریدوفروش داروهای غیرقانونی و غیرمجاز اطلاق می شود که ازنظر دولت و طبق قوانین رسمی، دارای مجازات است. مطابق داده های رسمی کشور، نرخ جرائم مرتبط با مواد مخدر در طی دههٔ اخیر روندی افزایشی داشته و همراه با تغییرات اقتصادی، این پدیده نیز افزایش یافته است. این مسئله در استان های کشور، طی بازهٔ زمانی ۱۳۹۰ تا ۱۳۹۸، روندی افزایشی را تجربه نموده است. بر این اساس، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی تأثیر شاخص های کلان اقتصادی (۱۳۹۰–۱۳۹۸) بر افزایش جرائم مرتبط با مواد مخدر است. روش اجرای پژوهش، از نوع اسنادی با تکیه بر تحلیل ثانویهٔ داده های مرکز آمار ایران و سازمان ثبت احوال کشور بود. واحد تحلیل، استان های کشور و ابزار تحلیل داده، نرم افزار SPSS بوده است. جامعهٔ آماری پژوهش شامل ۳۱ استان کشور بود که به صورت تمام شماری در بازهٔ زمانی ۱۳۹۰ الی ۱۳۹۸ مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. نتایج مدل رگرسیونی حاکی از آن است که متغیرهای اقتصادی شامل نرخ تورم و نرخ بیکاری، تأثیر مستقیم و همچنین نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی، تأثیر معکوس بر روند نرخ جرائم مرتبط با مواد مخدر در استان های ایران داشته است. به طورکلی، شاخص های کلان اقتصادی در بازهٔ زمانی ۱۳۹۰ الی ۱۳۹۸ توانسته اند ۴۶٪ از تغییرات متغیر وابسته را تبیین کنند. متناسب با نتایج تحقیق، با افزایش بی سازمانی و بحران اقتصادی و ورود فشارهای روانی-اجتماعی در اثر رکود مالی، کاهش منابع توسعه ای-شغلی، از بین رفتن امید و چشم اندازهای مثبت تأمین نیازهای اقتصادی (کاهش مشارکت اقتصادی در بازار، حجیم شدن نرخ بیکاری و پایداری آن و شدید شدن نرخ تورم بر اقتصاد خانوار)، جرائم مرتبط با مواد مخدر دچار نوسانات و تغییرات شدیدی شده و افزایش می یابد.The Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Drug-Related Crimes: A Secondary Analysis of Provincial Statistics in Iran, 2011s
Drug crimes refer to the use, distribution, and sale of illegal and unauthorized drugs, which are punishable by the government and according to official laws. According to the country's official data, the rate of drug-related crimes has been increasing during the last decade, and this phenomenon has also increased along with the economic changes. This problem has experienced an increasing trend in the provinces of the country during the period 1390 to 1398, based on this, the main goal of the current research is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic indicators (1390-1398) on the increase in drug-related crimes during the decade of 1390. Research implementation method; It is a type of document based on the secondary analysis of the data of the Iranian Statistics Center and the country's status registration organization. analysis unit; provinces of the country and data analysis tools; The software was SPSS. The statistical population of the research is 31 provinces of the country, which were surveyed in the period of 2010-2018. The results of the regression model indicate that economic variables including inflation rate B=0.345, unemployment rate B=0.423 have a significant and direct effect on the trend of drug-related crimes, as well as economic participation rate B=0.338 It has had an inverse and significant effect on the rate of drug-related crimes. In general, macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain and predict 0.460 B=0.460 of dependent variable changes in the period from 1390 to 1398.
Extended Abstract
1. Introduction
Addiction, fundamentally, is the state of becoming accustomed to and habituated to something. It is widely recognized as a shared societal issue across all communities. Addiction, as a psycho-social anomaly stemming from dependence on substances such as alcohol, opium, hashish, and heroin, presents as an undesirable and terrifying phenomenon. It evokes images of unusual and emaciated appearances, hunched postures, downcast heads, sunken eyes, and utterly ruined dignity. It also conjures the specter of ruthless and dangerous smugglers and traffickers, whose activities are sometimes influenced by overarching macroeconomic indicators and protracted cycles of economic challenges. The illicit use and trafficking of narcotics represent a significant problem with profound implications for society, the economy, culture, and public health.
Alongside the nuclear crisis, demographic shifts, and environmental degradation, it is identified as one of the four major global challenges of the 21st century. The consumption, distribution, and illicit trade of narcotics constitute criminal behaviors that impede development, health, social welfare, and the attainment of sustainable development goals at individual, societal, and global levels. Furthermore, the harmful consumption of narcotics extends its impact beyond the individual, affecting the health and social well-being of families, friends, neighbors, civil society, and the broader community. The use of these substances and their prevalence are deeply interconnected with social deprivation, lower educational attainment, and increased difficulty in securing employment, financial instability, and poverty. For instance, in Iran, during the period from 2011 to 2019 (the years 1390-1398 in the Iranian calendar), official statistics indicate a significant rise in the rate of commission of these offenses across the country’s provinces.
Historical studies and official statistics from Iran’s Statistical Center during the period reveal an upward trend in drug-related offenses, encompassing both consumption and trafficking. The average annual number of individuals arrested in connection with this issue stands at 350,357. However, a particularly noteworthy observation is the simultaneous increase in drug crime rates with shifts in economic indicators. Economic changes in components such as unemployment, inflation, the Gini coefficient, poverty, unfavorable business environments, and increasing marginalization have been correlated with a rise in the incidence and rates of drug offenses in Iranian provinces. The primary argument of this paper is that sudden shifts in the economic structure (macroeconomic indicators) have exacerbated the conditions for an increase in drug crime rates (deviant behavior). Accordingly, this paper, drawing upon the cyclical nature of economic crises (theoretical model), analyzes the interconnectedness of macroeconomic indicators (independent variables) with drug crime rates across the 31 provinces of Iran. Ultimately, the primary objective of this research is to examine the status of drug crime rates in the country’s provinces and to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic indicators on these rates within the 1390-1398 timeframe.
2. Methodology
This study adopts a documentary and secondary data analysis approach. Two sets of data were utilized: first, crime statistics related to drug offenses, including arrests for addiction and trafficking; and second, economic indicators obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran. The economic variables include GDP, Gini coefficient, unemployment rate, economic participation rate, and inflation rate. All data span a 10-year period from 2011 to 2021. The unit of analysis is the provincial level, encompassing all 31 provinces of Iran. The study includes a comparative analysis of these indicators across provinces, focusing on both the average values and their trends over time. SPSS software was used for statistical analysis.
It is also important to note that statistics for all indicators used in this study, including economic indicators and drug crimes, are presented annually at both the national and provincial levels and are available in the archives of the National Statistics Center. In this study, provincial statistics were considered over a 9-year period (2011 to 2019), meaning that 9 annual rates were calculated for each indicator for each province. The average of these 9 numbers was used as the average index rate, and the average of their year-to-year changes was used as the average index rate changes.
3. Findings
Descriptive findings indicate that the rate of drug-related arrests followed a consistently upward trend between 2011 and 2019. Specifically, the rate increased from 3,712 arrests per million people in 2011 to 5,077 per million in 2018. Notably, this increase coincided with rising rates of unemployment, inflation, and income inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient).
Inferential analysis revealed statistically significant correlations between drug-related crime rates and key economic variables, including unemployment, inflation, and economic participation rates. Another part of the results showed that changes in the unemployment rate and inflation rate show a significant correlation with the rate of drug-related crimes. The observed correlation between changes in the aforementioned economic indicators and the rate of drug crimes between provinces was positive and indicates that during the period under study, an increase in the unemployment rate was accompanied by an increase in the rate of arrests related to drug crimes in the provinces.
Regression analysis further confirmed a significant relationship between macroeconomic indicators and drug-related crime rates across provinces. The selected economic variables accounted for approximately 46% of the variance in drug-related crime rates. Based on these results, it can be argued that fluctuations in economic structures-such as the marginalization of market workers, the decline in active labor force participation, and the growing trend toward unemployment-are associated with an increased tendency to engage in drug-related offenses. This relationship (42%) was statistically significant in the regression model.
4. Conclusion
The results indicate that inflation alone explains approximately 34% of the variance in drug-related crime rates. Furthermore, the study supports the view that in times of economic recession, rising unemployment creates psychological and social pressures that contribute to higher levels of drug consumption. Economic inequality is also identified as a major driver pushing individuals toward high-risk behaviors. Additionally, abrupt and severe economic disruptions-such as political and economic crises-lead to increased unemployment and poverty.
This anomic environment, characterized by growing social and economic divides, erodes future prospects and fuels higher rates of drug use. The negative and inverse impact of economic participation on drug-related crimes (33%) underscores the importance of labor market engagement in curbing illegal and unregulated income-generating activities. Drawing upon the theoretical framework of the study, it can be asserted that individuals assess both legal and illegal options and choose the combination that maximizes their expected income. According to this opportunity-based perspective, the state of the economy determines the expected returns from illegal activities. Economic crises, by diminishing the viability of legal employment, enhance the appeal and perceived benefits of illegal endeavors.
Therefore, the findings suggest that, like many other societal challenges in contemporary Iran, effective strategies to prevent drug-related crimes must involve comprehensive economic and policy reforms. Unless such structural changes are implemented, conventional measures-including crackdown initiatives, harsher punishments, public awareness campaigns, and educational programs-are unlikely to yield significant reductions in drug-related crime rates. As past experience demonstrates, individuals make decisions based on the tangible realities of their lives, not on abstract messages or policy interventions.
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