بررسی تأثیر اقتصاد سایه بر عملکرد بازار مالی و بخش بانکی کشورهای عضو BRICS (رویکرد Panel SUR) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
عملکرد بخش مالی و بانکی کشورها نقش تعیین کننده برای اهداف رشد و توسعه اقتصادی دارد. اندازه اقتصاد غیررسمی می تواند تأثیر مهمی بر عملکرد بازار و مؤسسات مالی داشته باشد؛ ولی بااین حال مطالعات قبلی به این موضوع کمتر توجه کرده اند. مطالعه حاضر تأثیر اندازه اقتصاد سایه یا غیررسمی را بر عملکرد بازارهای مالی و بانک ها در کشورهای عضو بریکس طی دوره 2000-2020 بررسی کرده است. باتوجه به ارتباط بازارهای مالی و بخش بانکی و برای بررسی هم زمان اثر اقتصاد سایه بر این دو بخش، از سیستم معادلات هم زمان بهره گرفته شده است. برای این منظور از تکنیک معادلات هم زمان رگرسیون به ظاهر نامرتبط به صورت پانل استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که اندازه اقتصاد سایه تأثیر منفی هم بر عملکرد بازارهای مالی و هم بر عملکرد بانک ها داشته است؛ بنابراین، می توان گفت اقتصاد سایه از مهم ترین تعیین کننده های عملکرد بازارها و نهادهای مالی است. سایر نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که ثبات سیاسی، رشد درآمد سرانه و توسعه انسانی تأثیر مثبت، ولی تورم و رانت منابع طبیعی تأثیر منفی بر عملکرد بازارهای مالی و بانک ها دارد. تأثیر جهانی شدن با اینکه بر عملکرد بازار مالی مثبت بوده است، ولی بر عملکرد بخش بانکی منفی بوده است؛ بنابراین، برنامه ریزی در جهت کاهش حجم اقتصاد غیررسمی، شفافیت و ثبات سیاسی، بهبود شاخص توسعه انسانی و کنترل تورم می تواند عملکرد بازارها و مؤسسات مالی را تقویت کند.Examining the Influence of the Shadow Economy on the Performance of Financial Markets and the Banking Sector in BRICS Countries: A Panel SUR Approach
The performance of the financial and banking sectors in countries is vital for achieving economic growth and development objectives. The size of the informal economy can significantly influence the effectiveness of financial markets and institutions; however, this issue has received relatively limited attention in prior research. This study investigates the impact of the shadow economy's size on the performance of financial markets and banks in BRICS countries from 2000 to 2020. Given the interconnectedness of financial markets and the banking sector, a simultaneous equation system was employed to evaluate the effects of the shadow economy on both sectors concurrently. The Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique was utilized for this analysis. The results indicate that the size of the shadow economy negatively affects the performance of both financial markets and banks. Therefore, it can be concluded that the shadow economy serves as a significant determinant of financial market and institutional performance. Additional findings of the study reveal that political stability, per capita income growth, and human development positively influence the performance of financial markets and banks, while inflation and natural resource rents have a detrimental effect. Furthermore, globalization enhances financial market performance but exerts a negative influence on the banking sector. In light of these findings, strategies aimed at reducing the size of the informal economy, promoting transparency, enhancing political stability, improving human development indices, and controlling inflation could considerably strengthen the performance of financial markets and institutions.Keywords: Informal Economy, Financial Market Performance, Banking Sector Performance, SUR Panel.JEL Classification: G32، G21، O17IntroductionThe performance of a country's financial and banking systems is heavily dependent on the overall health of its economic sectors. Efficient financial intermediation requires the mobilization of sufficient and effective resources, which are essential for both the private and public sectors. In the private sector, informal and clandestine activities absorb a significant share of these resources, potentially disrupting the financial intermediation process. In the public sector, an increase in hidden activities results in diminished government tax revenues, thereby depleting available financial resources. Consequently, government-backed policies designed to support financial intermediation encounter challenges, as a portion of the economy's financial resources becomes redirected toward government financing, constraining the funds available for private sector lending. Furthermore, the financial and banking sector can only make a substantial contribution to investment financing when resources are allocated to transparent, formal activities that engage with the economic system’s taxation and statistical processes. The diversion of financial and banking resources to shadow economic activities impairs the allocation of these resources to productive and formal endeavors, potentially undermining the efficiency of financial and banking operations. This study examines the impact of the shadow economy on the performance of the financial market and banking sector, focusing particularly on emerging economies and the evolving economic and trade relationships between Iran and the BRICS nations, which serve as case studies. Materials & MethodsThis study investigates the impact of the size of the shadow economy on the performance of the financial and banking sectors in BRICS countries from 2002 to 2020. The countries included in this analysis are Brazil, Russia, India, China, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Egypt. Given the characteristics of the data, a panel data approach is employed to estimate the models. To address both financial market development and banking sector performance simultaneously, a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system within a panel data framework is utilized, representing a novel approach in this area of research. The use of panel SUR helps to mitigate the risk of obtaining misleading results due to sample heterogeneity. The models to be estimated for financial market development and banking sector performance are specified as follows: Model 1: Model 2: In these equations, FMI represents the financial market development index, FII denotes the performance index of financial institutions or the banking sector, and Shadow refers to the size of the shadow or hidden economy. HDI stands for the Human Development Index, GDPP indicates the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product, Inf represents the inflation rate, RR denotes natural resource rents, Kofgi is the globalization index, and Political signifies political stability. The subscript i refers to the country, while t indicates the time period. FindingsEmpirical analysis demonstrates that in BRICS countries, political stability exerts a positive influence on the composite indices of financial market and banking sector performance. Political stability creates an environment of economic certainty and predictability, thereby providing a long-term outlook for economic actors and investors. The impact on financial markets is notably stronger than its influence on banking sector performance. In resource-rich nations, however, these resources have not enhanced financial and banking efficiencies; instead, they have generated economic rents, fostered corruption, and weakened government functions. Growth in per capita income and the Human Development Index significantly and positively affects the performance of both financial markets and banking sectors. Economic growth provides a macroeconomic backdrop that stimulates demand for banks’ financial resources, as investors seek to channel these funds into profitable economic ventures. Moreover, globalization has a positive and statistically significant effect on financial market performance, while simultaneously posing a significant challenge for banks in the BRICS countries, revealing a negative and statistically significant impact on their performance. Additionally, inflation, which reflects the depreciating value of national currencies, considerably undermines the performance of both financial markets and the banking sector. Discussion and ConclusionThe findings highlight the detrimental impact of the shadow economy on the performance of financial markets and the efficiency of the banking sector. Controlling and reducing the size of informal economic sectors can enhance the functioning of financial markets and improve banks’ operational status. It is critical to monitor the allocation of financial and banking resources toward productive, formal economic activities while preventing their diversion into shadow sectors. Effective tax systems and regulations are essential for guiding financial resources toward the formal economy. The study also emphasizes the positive influence of institutional quality and political stability, advocating for policy frameworks aimed at enhancing transparency, ensuring economic predictability, stabilizing legislative environments, and prioritizing political stability to substantially improve the performance of the financial and banking sectors. Furthermore, policies that address inflation control and promote the transparent management of natural resource revenues are crucial. While globalization positively supports financial market development, it presents challenges for banking sector performance, necessitating a focus on banking conditions, structures, and regulatory frameworks within a global context as integral components of international cooperation efforts.
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