عوامل مؤثر بر ایدئال های فرزندآوری جوانان گروه های قومی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
قومیت به عنوان یکی از زمینه های فرهنگی که رفتار فرزندآوری در آن شکل می گیرد، جایگاه اساسی در مطالعات باروری در جوامع چند قومیتی نظیر ایران دارد. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی نگرش جوانان گروه های قومی ایران به فرزندآوری در سال 1398 و با تحلیل ثانوییه داده های پیمایش ملی نگرش جوانان به ازدواج و تشکیل خانواده به تبیین موضوع پرداخته است. جامعیه آماری شامل جوانان 18 تا 34 سال مجرد کشور در سال 1398 بوده و با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری خوشه ای چندمرحله ای، با نمونه ای با حجم 3021 نفر مصاحبه شده است. بیشتر جوانان ایرانی 18 تا 34ساله تمایل زیادی به ایدئال دوفرزندی (1/47درصد) دارند. در میان گروه های قومی مختلف در ایران، جوانان بلوچی با میانگین تعداد ایدئال 45/2 فرزند، بیشترین تمایل به فرزندآوری و جوانان ترک با میانگین تعداد ایدئال 77/1 فرزند کمترین تمایل به فرزندآوری را داشته اند. تفاوت معناداری در ایدئال های فرزندآوری جوانان فارس با جوانان ترک و بلوچ دیده می شود و وضعیت شغلی و میزان دینداری از متغیرهای مهمی هستند که بر ایدئال های فرزندآوری جوانان اثرگذار هستند؛ بنابراین، قومیت به عنوان سازه ای اجتماعی و فرهنگی نقش تعیین کننده ای در شکل گیری رفتارهای فرزندآوری در سیاست های جوانی جمعیت در کشور خواهد داشت.Factors Affecting the Ideals of Childbearing among Young People within Iranian Ethnic Groups
Introduction
Ethnicity significantly influences childbearing behavior and is a key focus in fertility studies within multiethnic societies. Given Iran's diverse ethnic composition, it is crucial to explore the relationship between ethnicity and fertility. One important indicator for predicting future trends in childbearing is the ideal number of children, which can be assessed through surveys that examine individual attitudes. To understand changes in the family sphere, particularly regarding childbearing, it is essential to investigate the attitudes of younger age groups, who represent the primary demographic for future fertility trends. The values and beliefs of young people about childbearing and family formation are critical indicators of the current desire to establish families and have children in Iranian society. Additionally, shifts in the values and attitudes of the youth may evolve into the prevailing social norms surrounding childbearing in the future. Therefore, understanding the perspectives of young age groups on this issue is of utmost importance.
Materials & Methods
This study employed secondary analysis of data from the second wave of the National Survey of Youth Attitudes toward Marriage and Family Formation, which was conducted in 2019 by using questionnaires and face-to-face interviews. The target population for this project included single youth aged 18 to 34 years across the country during that year. A multi-stage cluster sampling method was utilized to survey a sample of 3,021 individuals. The sampling plan was designed to categorize the provinces into 7 clusters based on the variable of "ethnicity". The sample was then distributed among 13 provinces in proportion to the population size of each cluster relative to the total statistical population of the country. In addition to the provincial capitals, two cities and two villages were selected for sampling within each province. The distribution of the sample among cities and villages was proportionate to the overall sample size for each province, as well as the respective sizes of the cities and villages. Data collection occurred in key streets and squares of both cities and villages. Descriptive statistics and Poisson regression analysis were employed to analyze the data, which were processed using SPSS software.
Discussion of Results & Conclusion
The research findings indicated that, in 2019, the desire to remain childless among single individuals aged 18 to 34 years in the Fars ethnic group was 2.4% higher than in other ethnic groups. The preference for having two children was the most common, with approximately 47% of young people expressing this desire. Around 4% wished to be childless, 26% preferred having one child, and 23% desired three or more children. The Baluch ethnic group reported the highest average ideal number of children at 2.45 followed by the Lor ethnic group at 2.08 and the Kurdish ethnic group at 2.01, with all averages indicating a preference for more than two children. A bivariate statistical test comparing the ideal number of children across ethnicities at a significance level of 0.0005 revealed significant differences among the groups. Furthermore, employment status and religiosity emerged as important factors influencing young people's ideals regarding children. Ethnicity, as a social and cultural construct, plays a crucial role in shaping childbearing behaviors. Thus, acknowledging the influence of ethnicity is vital for developing effective youth policies in the country. To address the evolving values and attitudes of those of childbearing age, it is recommended that policies be implemented to foster a culture that values children within the family. Suggested initiatives include family-oriented education in schools and universities, cultural promotion through mass media, providing counseling services for young couples, reinforcing religious values related to family, and introducing indicators of an ideal family that can serve as a model for youth.
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