هویت اقلیمی سرزمینی و سیاست گزاری های مدیریت منابع آبی از دیدگاه ژئومرفولوژی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سیاست گزاری ها در حوزه مدیریت منابع آبی معمولاً به اتکا داده های اقلیمی و در چارچوب تحلیل های آماری صورت می گیرد، غافل از آنکه این شیوه ها، غالباً بدون پشتوانه های فلسفه محیطی راهگشا نخواهند بود. درک مفهوم هویت اقلیمی در حوزه مدیریت منابع آبی می تواند نگاه سیاست گزاران را دگرگون سازد. اگرچه مفهوم هویت بیشتر در مطالعات اجتماعی بکار می رود ولی بررسی های اخیر ژئومرفولوژیست ها بر این نکته تأکید دارد که سرزمین ها نیز دارای هویت خاصی هستند که همانند جوامع بشری عملکردی براساس این ویژگی ها از خود بروز می دهند و عدم شناخت و بی توجهی به آن، اجرای بسیاری از سیاست ها را با ناکامی روبرو می سازد. بررسی های اخیر مطالعات جغرافیایی نشان می دهد، اگرچه تحلیل داده های یکسان، می تواند با روش های آماری متعددی صورت گیرد ولی همیشه نتایج بدست آمده یکسان نیست و این موضوع می تواند در فهم هویت اقلیمی ما را یاری دهد. این مقاله که حاصل بررسی های داده های بارش ایران در یک دوره زمانی (30 ساله) و براساس تحلیل همسازها و به اتکا تکنیک های شاخص ناهنجاری ، تحلیل خوشه ای ، آزمون ران تست ، آزمون ران چارت و آزمون من – کندال برای سه مؤلفه میانگین بارش، بیشینه بارش 24 ساعته و شدت بارش ایستگاه های منتخب صورت گرفته، حاکی از آن است که: هویت اقلیمی ایران از مبانی فلسفی رخدادهای بی قاعده پیروی کرده که در ژئومرفولوژی تحت عنوان حوادث کاتاستروف از آن یاد می شود و شرط کامیابی در سیاست گزاری های آبی به رسمیت شناختن چنین هویت اقلیمی در ایران است. ذخیره سازی و ایجاد نظام شبکه سراسری که بتواند توانایی وزارت نیرو را در جابجایی آب ناشی از بارش های تصادفی، میسر سازد به عنوان اَبَر سیاست نظام مدیریت آبی می تواند کارساز باشد.Territorial climatic identity and water resource management policies from the perspective of geomorphology
IntroductionPolicy-making in the field of water resources management is usually based on climatic data and in the framework of statistical analysis, not knowing that these methods, Unaware that They will not be helpful without the support of environmental philosophy. Understanding the concept of climate identity in the field of water resources management can transform the view of policymakers. Although the concept of identity is mostly used in social studies, the recent studies of geomorphologists emphasize the point that territories also have a special identity that, like human societies, function based on these characteristics, and the lack of recognition and disregard for it to be the implementation of many policies fail. Recent reviews of geographic studies show that although the analysis of the same data can be done with several statistical methods, the results obtained are not always the same, and this issue can help us understand climatic identity.This article, which is the result of analyzing Iran's rainfall data over a period of time (30 years)And based on Harmonic Analysis And depending on the techniques Anomaly index, Cluster analysis, Run Test, Run Chart, and Maan-Kendal Trend Test for three components of average precipitation, Maximum rainfall in 24 hours and rainfall intensity of selected stations happened, suggests that: Iran's climatic identity from philosophical foundations Stochastic Thinking followed, which is referred to as catastrophic events in geomorphology And the condition of success in water policies is the recognition of such climate identity in Iran.MethodologyThe main component of the climate of any place is precipitation, therefore, in order to achieve the goals of the research and the course of changes in the precipitation characteristics of the geomorphological zone of Iran, based on the analysis of statistical data and considering the importance of land use, based on the quantitative-phenomenological method It is mostly focused on the precipitation component. For this purpose, the research process is prepared as follows (Figure 2).Results and Discussionthis research is presented in several steps. In the first step, 16 rainfall stations of Iran were selected and the type of climatic systems governing them was determined. In the second step, the average annual rainfall, maximum 24-hour rainfall and annual rainfall intensity of selected stations (1367-1396) were calculated in MATLAB software. In the third step (six steps), to review and analyze the rainfall data of 16 selected stations, in Excel, Minitab, SPSS and MATLAB software, Anomaly tests, cluster analysis, run test, run chart, Mann-Kendall and harmonic analysis have been performed. In the fourth step, the phenomenological method was used to infer and extract policy making propositions. The interesting point that can be obtained from these investigations is that the rainfall patterns of Iran exhibit two types of behavior: single-pulse and double-pulse or multi-pulse. For example, the stations of Rasht, Babolsar, Bandar Anzali, Gorgan, etc. have one pulse with a long mode, and the stations of Ramsar, Fasa, Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, etc. have two pulses or multiple pulses. Therefore, the following propositions can be extracted:- Iran’s rainfall events are dominated by three climatic systems that do not follow a specific order and each of them has irregularity and unpredictable chaos.- Rainfall behavior has been different in each part of the country over many years.- Almost all the heaviest 24-hour rains occurred in selected stations randomly and do not follow any particular order.- And finally, Iran's rainfall patterns are mostly catastrophic in nature.Therefore, in the management of Iran's water resources, this feature of being random should be considered as the identity of our territorial climate and based on such identity, program policies should be formulated.ConclusionAlthough the measurement and study of precipitation data is considered as the main and most important element or input data to hydrological systems but many Iranian researchers have ignored the ruling spirit of these data and they have done their research on atmospheric data by resorting to averages, statistical medians, etc.; while the spirit governing statistical data in Iran, which has dry and semi-arid climates, triple climate systems, unique geomorphological forms, etc.; introduced the land of Iran as an exception and expresses the fact that the type of attitude, method of study, planning, type of management, etc. in the field of atmospheric precipitation, water resources and resource management must be changed. By considering the results of statistical analysis of rainfall data of selected stations, it can be concluded that Iran's rainfall events are catastrophic and do not follow a specific trend. As a result, the climatic identity of Iran is under the title of the proposition that climatic events are catastrophic as an inherent territorial principle and characteristic that defines Iran's climatic identity. Undoubtedly in a land where climatic events are random the way of making policies about water resources is different from other countries and it is not possible to adopt a specific policy for water resources management. The catastrophic nature of rainfall makes this principle clear to us that, firstly, we are faced with different periods of humidity and secondly, periods of decreasing humidity; Therefore, the following strategic propositions can be expressed in the field of water resources policy making:1- Water storage should be accepted and recognized as a principle;2- Due to the fact that sometimes some areas of Iran may receive more than their water needs and some areas may receive less than their needs therefore, it is necessary and mandatory to create a structure in the field of water resources management that is capable of territorial water maneuver in emergency situations.3- According to the country's development plans, it is certain to use new water sources in the long term (50 years).4- It seems necessary to create a nationwide water network in the country where the share of produced water (artificial, underground, surface water, floods, etc.) is known.
تبلیغات
