کیومرث آریا

Abstract This study rigorously investigates the intricate relationship between the Central Bank of Iran’s (CBI) foreign exchange (FX) policies and key macroeconomic variables amidst a complex interplay of economic volatility, international sanctions, and substantial oil dependence. Employing a mixed-methods approach, we integrate advanced econometric analysis with detailed historical policy tracing and comparative case studies of nations such as China, Turkey, Brazil, and Venezuela. Our analysis scrutinizes the impact of Iran's evolving exchange rate regimes, encompassing fixed, managed float, and multiple-rate systems, on critical macroeconomic indicators, including inflation dynamics, trade balance fluctuations, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The empirical findings underscore the significant role of persistent oil revenue reliance and a fragmented FX system in contributing to enduring fiscal deficits and elevated inflation levels. By drawing parallels with international experiences, our framework elucidates the critical need for diversifying FX resources, strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, and implementing fundamental institutional reforms to foster a more resilient and adaptable FX regime. This research contributes to the literature by bridging theoretical frameworks with empirical realities specific to Iran's context, offering a robust roadmap for enhancing the effectiveness of its FX policies.