اعظم حاجی پور

This study investigates how oil revenues and the exchange rate influence investment in Iran’s stock market, drawing on seasonal data for the period 2000-2024. To capture these dynamics, the analysis applies a Markov-switching model that incorporates oil revenues, exchange rate, and inflation as explanatory variables. The results highlight that the impact of these factors varies across regimes, reflecting different market conditions. The first regime, associated with high variance and a strong average level (boom), shows that oil revenues and the exchange rate contribute positively to stock market investment, while inflation exerts a negative effect. In contrast, the second regime, characterized by high variance and a weak average level (recession), reveals a continued positive role for oil revenues, but negative influences from both the exchange rate and inflation.