احسان رسولی نژاد

Economic sanctions, involving trade restrictions imposed by one country or a group of countries against another, come in various forms, such as tariffs, trade barriers, and import/export restrictions. In recent times, Iran and Russia have become targets of diverse economic sanctions imposed by the Western Bloc. Given that both countries heavily rely on their energy sectors as the bedrock of their economies, this study focuses on assessing the impact of Western sanctions on Iran and Russia's energy industries. Employing the Futurology method (Scenario planning), the research examines the effects of Western sanctions on the energy sectors of Iran and Russia, and explores their respective responses to mitigate these adverse consequences. The findings highlight four potential scenarios for the future of the Iranian and Russian energy sectors, based on two megatrends of sanctions and geopolitical tensions. Among these scenarios, the "Ideal scenario" emerges as the most favorable outcome, while the "Austerity scenario" poses the greatest challenges. Despite the short-term efficacy of these strategies, the study underscores heightened long-term investment risks in both nations. Consequently, foreign investors' participation in the oil and gas sectors of Iran and Russia is expected to decline.

It is generally accepted that COVID-19 is one of the most serious challenges the countries have faced since the end of World War II. The coronavirus, as an external shock has reshaped economic structures and lowered integration among countries. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the globalization level of countries, which were classified into five Asian regions based on the United Nations geoscheme. To this end, an econometric method of estimation is employed based on the quarterly data pertaining to the study’s variables from 2010 to 2020. Results indicate that the pandemic has had a more severe negative impact on the globalization level of more developed countries in Asia, whereas it has had a smaller negative impact on less developed regions, such as those located in Central Asia. In this regard, Japan and China can be named as two economies in which the Coronavirus has had a greater negative impact on the level of globalization. It can be highlighted that the pandemic and its related consequences, such as protectionism (trade and capital de-liberalism) and travel restrictions are not considered as potential threats for all Asian countries. What constitutes a threat for various countries depends on the country’s economic nature, political stability, economic size, and globalization nature. Therefore, for globalization recovery, no unique pattern could be applied to all Asian countries, each having to determine useful practical policies based on its  economic mechanism and interactions with respect to both regional and global variables. 

This research seeks to answer the question “what factors affect Iranian people’s adaptation to the changes in their social welfare under the imposed sanctions?” To this end, a survey methodology based on two theories of Sanctions Acceptance Model (SAM) and Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society is employed to analyze the opinions of 135 respondents who are experts in the fields of economic sciences, economic resistance, economic development, and sociology of development. The results reveal that government organizations and institutions play a major role in assisting people in their adaptation to the conditions resultant from the sanctions. In the next step, the context of the sanctions was addressed in relation to the characteristics of the imposed sanctions. These characteristics, namely the target of the sanctions, the duration of the sanctions, the depth of the impact of the sanctions, threat or imposition of sanctions, and the unilateral or multilateral nature of sanctions play a major role in Iranian people’s level of acceptance regarding the changes in their social welfare. Individuals are another important group whose mentalities and perceptions are affected by the imposed sanctions.

The oil price fluctuations are a debatable issue among scholars. Understanding the appropriate utilization of underground resources is paramount, considering their abundance and historical significance as a crucial source of financial income for Iran. However, oil shocks pose challenges to petroleum exporting nations due to fluctuating oil prices and their reliance on the global economy. This study employs Econometrics models and auto-regression analysis to investigate whether oil shocks significantly affect sustainable development in OPEC countries during 2000-2019. Findings reveal a 'resource curse' affecting the analyzed nations, with rising oil prices having no substantial impact on their gross domestic product. Furthermore, increased oil revenues drive inflation, impeding urbanization and exacerbating inequality (Gini coefficient), indicative of the 'Dutch disease phenomenon. In conclusion, policymakers should prioritize the economy's size and reduce investment risks by formulating attainable long-term plans concentrated on sustainable development indicators, aiming for more stable progress. Oil shocks notably influence the sustainable development of petroleum-exporting countries.