Strategic Patience or Strategic Shift? Analyzing Iran's Regional Diplomacy in the Post-Abraham Accords Era (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

چکیده

This article investigates the evolving trajectory of Iran’s regional diplomacy in the aftermath of the Abraham Accords (2020), which marked a major shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics by initiating normalization between Israel and several Arab states. The central inquiry of this study is whether the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to uphold its long-standing doctrine of "strategic patience" or is transitioning toward a new, more adaptive diplomatic doctrine in response to emerging regional alignments. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of official policy statements, regional diplomatic developments, and doctrinal texts in Persian and Arabic, this study examines Iran’s evolving strategy through the dual lenses of geopolitical realism and Islamic theological frameworks—especially the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist). The article argues that Iran’s foreign policy posture reflects a hybrid model: while ideological commitments to anti-Zionism and Islamic solidarity remain strong, there are growing signs of pragmatic engagement, particularly in Iran’s overtures toward Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. This pragmatic turn is framed within Shiite concepts such as maslahat (public interest) and hikmah (strategic wisdom), allowing Tehran to recalibrate without abandoning core ideological principles. The findings reveal a nuanced shift toward a dual-track strategy that combines deterrence with diplomacy, resistance with regional dialogue. This approach enables Iran to navigate its theological commitments while responding to shifting regional dynamics. The article contributes to the broader discourse on the intersection of religion and foreign policy in the Middle East and offers insights into how revolutionary states adapt in a transforming international environment.