ارزیابی تاب آوری محلات شهری در برابر حملات تروریستی (مورد مطالعه: محله باغ فیض شهر تهران) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
امروزه تحلیل و ارزیابی تاب آوری محلات شهری در برابر تهدیدات تروریستی به یکی از ضرورت های اصلی در مدیریت شهری تبدیل شده است. محله باغ فیض تهران، به دلیل وجود مراکز تجاری و مذهبی مهم، یکی از مناطقی است که در برابر تهدیدات امنیتی و تروریستی تاب آوری پایینی دارد. هدف این پژوهش، ارزیابی شاخص های تاب آوری شهرها در برابر حملات تروریستی و ارزیابی تاب آوری محله باغ فیض در برابر تهدیدات تروریستی است. در گام نخست، با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه ای، معیارها و شاخص های مؤثر بر تاب آوری شهری در برابر حملات تروریستی شناسایی و سپس با استفاده از مدل IHWP میزان اثرگذاری شاخص ها ارزیابی شد. در بخش دوم، با استفاده از نرم افزار GIS، میزان تاب آوری محله باغ فیض در برابر تهدیدات تروریستی محاسبه شد. نتایج پژوهش در بخش اول نشان می دهد به ترتیب شاخص های توزیع و تراکم جمعیتی با 5.33 درصد، اهمیت کاربری ها با 4.8، بُعد خانوار با 4.66، میزان وابستگی و اندرکنش زیرساخت ها با 4.26، رشد جمعیت و مکان یابی درست با 4 درصد بیشترین اثرگذاری را دارند. در بخش دوم نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد 4.63 درصد مساحت محله در تاب آوری خیلی کم، 24.32 درصد محله از میزان تاب آوری کم، 29.34 درصد محله در میزان تاب آوری متوسط، 30.88 درصد محله در محدوده تاب آوری زیاد و 10.81 درصد محله در محدوده تاب آوری خیلی زیاد است. در پایان نیز راهکارهایی برای ارتقای تاب آوری ارائه شده است.Assessing Urban Resiliency Against Terrorist Attacks (Case study: Bagh-e-Fayz neighborhood in Tehran)
Terrorist attacks in cities and urban neighborhoods, as one of the significant security threats, have widespread impacts on citizens' daily lives, social stability, and economic development. Cities are prime targets for these attacks due to their population density, financial and political centers, and critical infrastructure. These types of attacks can cause irreparable damage to individuals and structures of society, from an explosion in a metro station to a shooting in a local market. For example, the Paris terrorist attacks in 2015 and the Mumbai bombings in 2008 demonstrated how such incidents not only cause loss of life but also have profound psychological and economic impacts. Terrorism in urban areas is usually designed to create fear and panic among the general public and undermine trust in government institutions. These attacks can completely disrupt public spaces due to the close connection between urban neighborhoods and people's daily lives. They also pose new challenges for security forces and urban planners, requiring more comprehensive strategies to protect urban communities (Hoffman, 2017; Wilkinson, 2016; UNODC, 2020). Between 1970 and 2017, nearly 170,000 terrorist attacks targeting civilians in cities resulted in the deaths or injuries of more than 500,000 people. (Crenshaw, Robison, 2022) These events are often referred to as large-scale disasters (Jat, Rafique, 2020). While natural and artificial hazards share similarities in their destructive potential and management challenges, terrorism stands out as the least recognized risk. This is partly due to the diverse definitions of terrorism, which complicates its understanding compared to other natural hazards (Shreve et al, 2016). This study seeks to examine the following questions: 1) What are the urban management resilience criteria for combating terrorism? 2) What is the importance of each urban management resilience criterion in decision-making and assessment of the region in question? 3) What are the new policies for increasing urban resilience? Therefore, this study, using multi-criteria decision-making models with GIS, seeks to measure and evaluate important urban management criteria for combating terrorist attacks and implement the developed conceptual model in a significant case study. In this study, to address the questions raised, the research method is first presented. Subsequently, using library resources, indicators for assessing the resilience of cities against terrorist attacks were identified, and their weights were calculated using the Delphi technique and decision-making methods. Also, using spatial data from the Bagh-e-Fayz neighborhood in Tehran, the resilience of building parcels in this area against terrorist threats was calculated. Methodology The present study is considered an applied research in terms of research type and a descriptive-analytical research in terms of research nature. In this study, urban resilience criteria and indicators were extracted using library studies in the form of a content analysis method, and the effectiveness of the criteria and indicators was evaluated using the IHWP model (Inverse Hierarchy Analysis) in the form of a questionnaire completed by the elite community. The statistical population of the study consisted of 30 experts in the field of passive defense, urban development, and crisis management from the National Passive Defense Organization, the National Passive Defense Scientific Association, the Crisis Management Research Institute of Malek Ashtar University of Technology, and Tehran Municipality, who were selected through expert judgment and the statistical sample of the study was 28 people using the Cochran formula. Result and discussion It is worth noting that, according to the scores obtained from the indicators, 10 indicators were selected to examine the study area's resilience against terrorist attacks. The selection of these indicators was based on the limited information available in the area regarding existing GIS layers in the Bagh-e-Faiz neighborhood. The indicators of the second part are; the degree of importance of the use (key asset), access to multi-purpose centers, distance from high-voltage electricity pylons, population density, access to medical centers, access to open and green spaces, access to fire centers, access to law enforcement centers, distance from gas stations, and communication network hierarchy. In the following, the status of the Bagh-e-Faiz neighborhood is examined according to the 10 aforementioned indicators, and the final map was produced according to Figure (1) by classifying the data into five distinct classes including (very low, low, medium, high, and very high) in terms of resilience against terrorist attacks. The results show that 63.4% of the neighborhood area is in very low resilience, which is in the northern part of the neighborhood and around key assets. 24.32% of the neighborhood is in low resilience, which includes the northeastern and southwestern parts of the neighborhood. 29.34% of the neighborhood is in medium resilience, which is in the central and southern parts of the neighborhood, concentrated in the area of Bahonar Street. 30.88% of the neighborhood is in the high-resilience area, which includes the northern parts of the neighborhood. 10.81% of the neighborhood is in the very high resilience area, which includes the eastern part of the neighborhood. Conclusion Urban resilience is of great importance in the face of terrorist attacks, as these attacks can have devastating effects on the security, economy, and social psychology of cities. Urban resilience helps maintain public safety, as resilient cities have a better ability to restore order and reduce chaos after an attack. In addition, by strengthening critical infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and emergency services, resilience can minimize physical damage and maintain the city's essential functions. In the present study, criteria and indicators of resilience of cities against terrorist attacks were identified through library studies and the opinions of various researchers. Data analysis was carried out in two separate sections. In the first section; The impact of indicators on the resilience of cities was evaluated using the IHWP model, and the results show that the following indicators, respectively, are population distribution and density with 33.5 percent, the importance of land uses with 4.8 percent, household size with 4.66 percent, the level of dependence and interaction of infrastructure with 4.26 percent, population growth and correct location with 4 percent, the level of city readability with 3.73 percent, road access with 3.73 percent, indigenous population with 3.33 percent, the proximity and compatibility of land uses with 3.2 percent. The texture and pattern of the city, with 3.2 percent, has the most significant impact on the resilience of cities against terrorist attacks. In the second part of the study, the results of the index scores in the first part were used, and by selecting ten indicators, the resilience of a case study was evaluated in GIS software. The results show that 63.4 percent of the neighborhood area is in very low resilience, which is in the northern part of the neighborhood and around key assets. 24.32 percent of the neighborhood is in the low resilience range, which includes the northeastern and southwestern parts of the neighborhood. 29.34 percent of the neighborhood is in the medium resilience range, which includes the central and southern parts of the neighborhood, concentrated in the area of Bahonar Street. 30.88 percent of the neighborhood is in the high resilience range, which includes the northern parts of the neighborhood. 10.81 percent of the neighborhood is in the very high resilience range, which includes the eastern part of the neighborhood. Comparing the results of the present study with previous research shows that so far, no model has been presented to assess the resilience of cities against terrorist threats that is capable of presenting a resilience map in parcel form, and most of the previous research has focused on the tendencies of terrorists or their tools.
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