تأثیرات خروج آمریکا از افغانستان بر امنیت ملی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در پی حادثه 11 سپتامبر، آمریکا ذیل عنوان مبارزه علیه تروریسم وارد خاک افغانستان شد. اما بعد از گذشت 20 سال از آغاز حمله به این کشور، با امضای توافقنامه با طالبان در 29 فوریه 2020 متعهد به خروج از افغانستان شد. از طرفی به دلیل اهمیت تحولات افغانستان برای ایران، هرگونه اقدام آمریکا در این کشور، متوجه امنیت ملی ایران است. هدف این مقاله، بررسی پیامدهای خروج آمریکا از افغانستان و شکل گیری خلاء قدرت فرامنطقه ای در این کشور است. پرسش این است که با خروج آمریکا از افغانستان و حاکمیت مجدد حکومت طالبان چه پیامدهایی برای امنیت ملی ایران به عنوان همسایه استراتژیکی افغانستان ایجاد شده است؟ فرضیه مقاله این است که فرایند خروج آمریکا از اول مِی 2021 از سرزمین های همجوار ایران پیامد مثبت اما چالش ایجاد یک افغانستان بی ثبات تحت حاکمیت طالبان؛ تصادم قرائت های مختلف از اندیشه های سیاسی اسلام و افزایش فعالیت اندیشه های قومی و تکفیری، ناامنی در مناطق شرقی کشور و کاهش امنیت ملی ایران به عنوان پیامد منفی باقی بماند. این پژوهش با چارچوب رئالیستی با روش تبیینی و بر اساس منابع اینترنتی و کتابخانه ای نگاشته شده است.The Impact of the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan on Iran’s National Security
IntroductionThe events of September 11 brought the issue of the U.S. fight against terrorism in Afghanistan to the forefront. Despite the significant expenditure aimed at advancing the U.S. nation-building project in Afghanistan, the Taliban managed to recapture Kabul on August 15, 2021. This rapid takeover had profound consequences. For Iran, both the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s victory hold significant importance. However, the rise of the Taliban has raised doubts about Iran’s political and economic influence in Afghanistan. In this respect, the current study tried to answer the following research question: What conditions and consequences can be anticipated for Iran’s foreign policy following the U.S. military withdrawal? The beginning of the U.S. withdrawal from Iran’s neighboring territories on May 1, 2021, presents an opportunity to enhance Iran’s regional role; however, it also poses significant challenges. These include the emergence of an unstable Afghanistan under Taliban rule, the intensification of regional rivalries, the clash of different interpretations of political ideas of Islam, and a decline in Iran’s national security and influence in Afghanistan. Additionally, the proliferation of ethnic and Takfiri ideologies and increased insecurity in Iran’s eastern regions remain critical negative consequences.Literature ReviewThere have been studies examining the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and its implications for Iran’s national security. However, given the relatively short time since the recent developments in Afghanistan, the literature on the topic is limited. For instance, Verma (2022) in the article “Afghanistan, Regional Powers, and Non-Traditional Security Threats and Challenges,” argues that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan leads to instability that extends beyond Afghanistan’s borders. This instability is expected to result in non-traditional threats and challenges such as transnational Islamic fundamentalist terrorism, drug trafficking, migration, and a prolonged increase in violence within Afghanistan itself. In the relevant literature, there is a noticeable lack of analysis from the perspective of realism, particularly regarding Iran’s strategic options following the U.S. withdrawal and the consequences for its national security. The present study sought to address this gap by presenting a novel approach to the topic.Materials and MethodsThe present research aimed to identify the security threats posed to Iran’s national security by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Following an explanatory methodology, the study relied on a realist framework to analyze the data collected from online and library resources.Results and DiscussionThe U.S. military presence in Afghanistan since 2001, sustained at great costs over two decades, alongside persistent threats from the Taliban, eventually placed the prospect of withdrawing from Afghanistan on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Following the withdrawal, the Taliban—a movement deeply rooted in Afghan ethnic and cultural dynamics and known for its resistance against foreign occupiers—regained power with significant support from the Pashtun population in a favorable environment created by the U.S. withdrawal. Concerning Iran, one positive consequence of the Taliban’s return to power is the shared hostility of both sides toward the U.S. However, the Taliban’s declaration of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan introduces the possibility of ideological rivalry with Iran. Moreover, the expected terrorist threats in Iran’s surrounding regions is likely to impact domestic security, thus prompting increased migration of Afghans into Iran. Concerning its external consequences, the re-establishment of Taliban rule can expand the influence of countries such as Pakistan, Qatar, and Turkey in Afghanistan’s political landscape. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will intensify the competition among regional powers aiming to shape the country’s future, with Iran playing a key role. However, Iran may face additional challenges due to the Taliban’s ethnic-based approach—rooted in a 42% Pashtun population—and their monopolization of power. The insecurity stemming from the U.S. withdrawal is likely to trigger an increased wave of Afghan refugees heading toward Iran. Furthermore, the agreement between Afghanistan and the U.S. undermines Afghanistan’s traditional neutrality in Central and South Asian politics. This shift could lead to antagonistic actions against Iran within Afghan domestic politics and among its political factions, such as Tajiks and Pashtuns, as they navigate their future relationship with the United States. This dynamic intensifies regional competition, particularly between Iran and Pakistan. The emergence of a new Taliban government also threatens to weaken Iran’s regional position. Tehran’s rivals, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, maintain better relations with the Taliban group. In fact, the Taliban refers to the Turks as brotherly people while addressing Iran merely as a neighbor. In addition, there is currently no viable anti-Taliban coalition, and major powers—Russia, China, the E.U., and the U.S.—are engaging in dialogue with the Taliban. Another pressing issue for Iran’s national security is the water-sharing dispute with the Taliban. Iranian officials have recently accused the Taliban of violating Iran’s water rights by refusing to release water from the new Kamal Khan Dam on the Helmand River, which flows into Lake Hamoon in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province (Tookhy, 2022). If the Taliban were to rely on groups like ISIS or al-Qaeda to provide security in Afghanistan or carry out cross-border programs, Iran’s national security and its eastern borders would face serious challenges. Therefore, as Afghanistan’s close neighbor, Iran could encounter a new wave of emerging terrorism originating from Afghanistan.ConclusionThe withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan has created an opportunity for Iran to play a more prominent role in the region, albeit with significant negative implications for its national security. The Iranian government views the Taliban’s dominance in Afghanistan as a potential opportunity to expand its economic influence, which, in turn, can bolster Iran’s national security. However, the most critical consequence of the Taliban’s resurgence for Iran is the exacerbation of ethnic and religious divides, leading to increased insecurity and a heightened sense of relative deprivation in the country’s eastern regions. From this perspective, even if the Taliban succeeds in forming a government, their lack of popular support will likely prevent them from effectively controlling the threatening and destabilizing processes within Afghanistan’s borders. This domestic insecurity is expected to spill over into the broader region, including Iran, thereby posing additional threats to Iran’s national security.
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