مولفه های ساختاری تاثیرگذار بر مدل روابط ایران و روسیه (2023-2015) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
روابط ایران و روسیه در طول یک دهه اخیر به طور محسوسی توسعه یافته است. این توسعه مناسبات به نحوی محسوس بوده که حتی مدل شکل گیری آن را می توان مبتنی بر مشارکت راهبردی در نظر گرفت. این توسعه در برخی از حوزه ها نظیر همکاری های سیاسی و یا مشارکت امنیتی-دفاعی بروندادهای بیشتری داشته و در سطوح اقتصادی و ژئواکونومیک بروز و ظهور کمتری داشته است. در این چارچوب به نظر می رسد مولفه های ساختاری نقش تاثیرگذارتری بر این مدل توسعه روابط داشته اند. مقاله حاضر با مفروض قراردادن این شرایط درپی پاسخ به این سوال کلیدی است که چه مولفه های ساختاری برمدل توسعه روابط ایران و روسیه در بازه سال های 2015 تا 2023 تاثیرگذار بوده اند؟ در پاسخ فرضیه ای که مطرح می شود مبتنی براین گزاره است که امضای برجام بین ایران و کشورهای 1+5 به عنوان عامل ساختاری تاثیرگذار بر سیاست خارجی ایران و جنگ اوکراین 2022 به عنوان عامل ساختاری تاثیرگذار بر سیاست خارجی روسیه در این فرایند تاثیرگذار بوده اند. در این چارچوب نوع مواجهه دو کشور با مولفه ساختاری تاثیرگذار بر بازیگر دیگر منجر به بازتولید این مناسبات شده است. مقاله حاضر با استفاده از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی با اتکاء به چارچوب تئوریک نوواقع گرایی ساختاری در پی اثبات فرضیه است.Structural Components Influencing the Model of Iran–Russia Relations (2015–2023)
IntroductionDuring the years 2015–2023, Iran–Russia relations experienced a consistent growth and stability. Structural components played varying roles during this period, sometimes acting as limiting and controlling factors, while at other times serving as catalysts that facilitated and accelerated the development of bilateral relations. Two key structural components in the foreign policies of both countries have significantly influenced the dynamics of their relations. The first is the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in which Russia played a pivotal role. The second is the 2022 Ukraine crisis, where Iran’s involvement drew considerable attention from analysts. These two factors have shaped the developmental trajectory of Iran–Russia relations since 2015. The present study aimed to address the following question: Which structural components influenced the model of Iran–Russia relations during 2015–2023? The study is based on the hypothesis that the JCPOA was a structural factor shaping Iran’s foreign policy, while the Ukraine crisis of 2022 served as a structural factor influencing Russia’s foreign policy. The two countries’ responses to these structural factors played a crucial role in expanding their bilateral relations.Literature ReviewThere are many studies about Iran–Russia relations. Among the most notable works are the Persian-language book titled Relations Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation: The New Era of Cooperation by Jahangir Karami (2009), and the article “The Prospect of Strategic Convergence Between Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran” by Alhoei (2022). However, only a limited number of these studies deal with the structural components of Iran–Russia relations. Furthermore, few academic publications explored these relations from a structural perspective, particularly in light of recent developments, such as the aftermath of the Ukraine war.Materials and MethodsThe current study used a descriptive–analytical method within the theoretical framework of structural neo-realism.Results and DiscussionKenneth Waltz views the structure of the international system as the fundamental factor shaping state behavior, asserting that this structure influences the relations between the states around the world. According to Waltz, states are interminably trying to increase their power due to the inherent chaos of the international system. In the meantime, international structures—especially the condition of anarchy—intensify states’ motivations to pursue common interests and participate in temporary coalitions. Therefore, the relationship between Iran and Russia can be analyzed through the lens of the balance of power. From the perspective of structural neo-realism, state behavior is shaped by the international system’s structure. Regardless of internal developments, the trajectory of state relations can be assessed through the analysis of the international system. In this model, countries exhibit similar behavior patterns influenced by their interaction with the international structure. Thus, setting aside regional and historical differences, the relationship between Iran and Russia can be examined in terms of their responses to international dynamics.The cornerstone of Iran–Russia cooperation lies in their critical and revisionist approach aimed at transitioning toward a multipolar world order, driven by the perceived decline of American hegemony. This shared perspective provides a foundation for cooperation, exemplified by their opposition to the U.S. unilateral actions in the JCPOA and the Ukraine crisis. One significant indicator of political cooperation is the frequency of state visits. Officials from both countries have engaged in numerous summits, discussing a wide range of issues. This unprecedented level of official meetings, unseen since the collapse of the USSR, signals the beginning of a new era in Iran–Russia relations. Another dimension of Iran–Russia relations is their evolving collaboration within international organizations. Although the two countries have cooperated in some areas, disagreements have persisted in others. Russia has supported Iran on various occasions, almost in line with its own strategic purposes. In the security–military domain, Iran and Russia have deepened their cooperation at critical junctures. During the Holy Defense, Moscow was Iran’s sole option for military support. More recently, their collaboration in Syria has strengthened their military and security ties. Russia’s involvement in Syria stems from a combination of strategic and tactical objectives, including countering Western dominance, protecting its interests, and preventing the collapse of allied states. The central theme of their security–military cooperation has been their shared opposition to U.S. policies and their commitment to protecting their respective interests. The Ukraine crisis has further reshaped the dynamics of their security–military relationship. Economic relations proved to be a critical component of Iran–Russia interactions over the past decade. These relations, increasingly elevated to a geo-economic level, spurred collaboration on major infrastructure projects, such as the North–South Corridor—which has received limited attention so far. Iran’s geographic location is a valuable asset frequently highlighted by both Iranian and international perspectives. Iran’s approach, blending reformist and traditional revisionist elements, reflects its structural interests in a more realistic way. Meanwhile, Russia, in response to escalating tensions with the West, has shifted away from its previously conservative stance, adopting a more proactive role in reforming the international system and shaping a new global order.ConclusionIran–Russia relations can be divided into two key phases: the first spanning from 2015 to 2019 (centered around the signing of the JCPOA) and the second beginning in 2022 (marked by the onset of the Ukraine war). In the first phase, Russia played a pivotal role in the nuclear negotiations. Although the JCPOA was essentially a legal document, it has significantly influenced Iran’s global image and position. It has also enhanced Iran’s diplomatic relations and its active role on the international stage. These advantages represent critical dimensions of power in the current era, encompassing political, normative, and economic aspects. The JCPOA has also had far-reaching implications in other areas, including security. In the second phase, as tensions and sanctions from the West against Russia escalated, Iran adopted a neutral stance, while acknowledging NATO’s destructive and provocative role at the onset of the war. This approach fostered new strategic interests in Iran–Russia relations, enabling significant advancements in various domains through a structural model.
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