تحلیل پویایی سیستم تامین منابع انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی بر روند تغییرات اقلیمی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
صنعت برق که در امنیت انرژی کشورها نقش تعیین کننده ای دارد در جهان با چالش هایی نظیر افزایش تقاضا، انتشار گازهای گل خانه ای و تغییرات اقلیمی مواجه شده است. با توجه به روند افزایشی تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی و تغییرات اقلیمی، ضرورت سیاست گذاری در بهره وری انرژی و انرژی های تجدیدپذیر، با نقش یکی از اولویت های استراتژیک دراسناد بالادستی کشور مطرح است. به علت پیچیدگی های بخش انرژی، پژوهش حاضر رویکرد پویایی سیستم را در نظر گرفته و به مدل سازی و شبیه سازی پویایی های سیستم تامین انرژی الکتریکی کشور با توجه به روند پیشران های تغییرات تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم، جمعیت و رشد اقتصادی در افق 30 ساله پرداخته است. در ادامه به شناسایی و ارزیابی سیاست های تامین انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی بر سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی ایران پرداخته شده است. چهار راهبرد شامل: 1) تامین انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی بر مدیریت عرضه انرژی الکتریکی از منابع تجدیدناپذیر؛ 2) تامین انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی بر مدیریت عرضه انرژی الکتریکی از منابع تجدیدپذیر؛ 3) تامین انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی مدیریت تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی و 4) تامین انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی بر سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی شناسایی گردید. سپس با اعمال جداگانه و ترکیبی سیاست های هر یک از راهبردها؛ رفتار متغیرهای هدف مدل، مورد بررسی و مقایسه قرار گرفت. در نهایت سیاست های ترکیبی شامل: 1) کاهش تلفات عرضه از طریق بهره وری عوامل تولید نیروگاه ها؛ 2) کاهش تلفات انتقال و توزیع انرژی؛ 3) کاهش سرانه مصرف انرژی الکتریکی؛ 4) توسعه نیروگاه های خورشیدی؛ 5) مدیریت تقاضای آب در بخش غذا؛ 6) توسعه سیستم های بازیافت حرارتی، 7) توسعه نیروگاه های بادی و 8) توسعه نیروگاه های بیوگاز به مثابه بهترین سیاست های تامین انرژی الکتریکی مبتنی بر سازگاری با روند تغییر اقلیم انتخاب گردید.Dynamic analysis of electric energy supply system based on climate change trends in Iran
IntroductionThe electricity industry, which plays a decisive role in the energy security of countries, has faced many challenges in the world such as increasing demand, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, reducing fossil fuel reserves and economic conditions. Forecasts have shown that this trend will continue. Considering the continued increase in the demand for electrical energy and climate change, the necessity of policy making in energy efficiency and renewable energies is always considered as one of the strategic priorities in the country's top level documents. In this regard, this research intends to identify the dynamics of the country's electric energy supply system from a macro perspective, paying attention to the trends of drivers of changes in electric energy demand due to climate change, population and economic growth, and based on these dynamics, obtain a correct estimate of the continuation of the existing situation.Methodology Considering the complexities governing the energy sector, the dynamic system approach is very suitable for investigating the issue. Therefore, in this research, the main goal is to present a dynamic model of electric energy supply for Iran and analyze the influencing factors of this relationship. Therefore, it has been tried to study the dimensions of electric energy supply under the influence of climate change in the country. Then, with a systemic approach, the behavior of the electrical energy supply system was simulated based on the climate change trend in the 30-year horizon (1400-1430) in the country. Results and Discussion The obtained results showed that the simulated model can provide acceptable behavior and results compared to reality. With a pathological and systematic view, the effective factors have been examined in a regular and coordinated function to reveal the existing synergies and trade-offs to identify general strategies for providing electrical energy. In the following, according to the declining behavior of the security of electrical energy resources, the identification and evaluation of the policies of supplying electrical energy resources based on adaptation to the climate changes of Iran was discussed. According to the results of the sensitivity analysis of the dynamic model, four strategies include: (1) Electric energy supply based on the management of electric energy supply from non-renewable sources; (2) Electric energy supply based on the management of electric energy supply from renewable sources; (3) Electric energy supply based on electric energy demand management and (4) Electric energy supply based on adaptation to climate changes were identified. In the following, by applying separately and combined policies of each of the strategies; The behavior of target variables of the model was investigated and compared. Finally, combined policies include: (1) reducing supply losses through the productivity of power plant production factors; (2) reducing energy transmission and distribution losses; (3) Per capita reduction of electrical energy consumption; (4) Development of solar power plants and (5) Management of water demand in the food sector; (6) Development of heat recovery systems, (7) Development of wind power plants and (8) Development of biogas power plants were selected as the best policies for supplying electrical energy resources based on adaptation to the climate change process.Conclusion Finally, based on the implementation of selected combined policies in the model, in short, the following solutions will lead to the supply of electrical energy security under the influence of climate: (1) 16% development of nuclear power plants in order to manage the supply of electrical energy from non-renewable and low-carbon sources in order to reduce supply losses through the productivity of production factors. (2) 18% reduction in the ratio of production of gas power plants to the total production of non-renewable power plants and increasing the production of combined cycle power plants through conversion from gas to combined cycle in order to increase the productivity of production factors and manage the supply of non-renewable resources. (3) Consolidation of energy and development of heat recovery systems in industrial units in order to develop heat recovery power plants by 32%. (4) Development of biogas, wind and solar power plants according to the key potentials in the country in order to manage energy supply from renewable sources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (5) 5% reduction in energy transmission and distribution losses in order to manage demand and maintain electrical energy security. (6) Reducing per capita energy consumption and reaching the global average due to the increasing demand due to population growth. (7) Management of water demand in the food sector by increasing the irrigation efficiency to about 85%, increasing the area of land under the irrigation network and reducing food losses. It is worth mentioning that in this study, the simulation was based on historical trends, so in the field of research proposals for future research, it is suggested to investigate the effects of climate change under climate change scenarios and climate forecasting models. In this review, technical and economic variables are not taken into consideration. More studies are needed on the technical and cost effects of the variability of renewable sources and the effects of extreme weather events on all elements of the energy system. The impact of severe weather changes compared to gradual changes (such as weather events with higher or lower than normal values) can be significant. prolonged periods of calm winds or drought, or reduced predictability of weather patterns, which may occur under more or more severe climate change; It could be problematic for energy systems with a high share of renewable energy in the future.
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