چرخه بحران امنیت در روابط اسرائیل و جبهه مقاومت: از عملیات طوفان الاقصی تا ترور اسماعیل هنیه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
اساس سیاست خارجی اسرائیل به ویژه دربرابر کشورهای اسلامی مبتنی بر دو اصل بی اعتمادی و بدبینی نهادینه شده و تضمین بقا، ثبات و امنیت خود است. این موضوع درخصوص جبهه مقاومت به مثابه راهبردی ترین دشمن اسرائیل بسیار ملموس تر است. به همین سبب، سران صهیونیستی همواره رویکرد بازدارندگی تهاجمی و هجوم گسترده به مواضع کشورهای مذکور، ترور نخبگان نظامی و علمی و حمله به مراکز راهبردی و اقتصادی آن ها را اتخاذ می کنند. با وقوع عملیات 7 اکتبر 2023 جنبش حماس، برای نخستین بار جبهه مقاومت با تغییر پارادایم از بازدارندگی تدافعی به بازدارندگی تهاجمی، بسیاری از معادلات امنیتی- سیاسی منطقه را با تطوری عمیق مواجه کرد و سران صهیونیستی نیز ضمن تهاجمات گسترده به مناطق غیرنظامی فلسطینیان، در ادامه به سفارت ج.ا.ا در سوریه حمله و سپس به ترور اسماعیل هنیه اقدام کردند. براین اساس، پژوهش حاضر درصدد است با استفاده از روش جامعه شناسی تاریخی و بهره گیری از منابع مکتوب و مجازی به این سوال اصلی پاسخ دهد که «چگونه می توان چرخه بحران امنیتی در روابط اسرائیل و جبهه مقاومت را تجزیه و تحلیل کرد؟» یافته های مقاله با تأکید بر تئوری چرخه بحران مایلس هاگ نشان می دهد که در مرحله عقبه تاریخی بحران: موضوع مهم شکاف های ایدئولوژیکی- مذهبی با تأکید بر صهیونیسم یهودی و اسلام شیعی؛ در مرحله تکوین بحران: مجموعه رویدادهای صورت گرفته در پسابیداری اسلامی همچون تأثیر اسرائیل در ظهور و قوام گروه های تروریستی تکفیری، توافق نامه آبراهام و حملات نظامی گسترده به مردم فلسطین و بدون ضمانت اجرا و توانمندی سازمان ها و نهادهای حقوقی- سیاسی بین المللی در محکومیت و بازدارندگی اقدامات اسرائیل؛ در مرحله تصادم یا رویارویی: وقوع عملیات طوفان الاقصی، حمله به سفارت ایران در دمشق، عملیات وعده صادق و ترور اسماعیل هنیه و نهایتاً در مرحله وساطت یا میانجی گری: به اقدامات محدود قطر و برخی دیگر از کشورهای منطقه و جهان و تهدیدات ایالات متحده علیه جبهه مقاومت به حضور نظامی در منطقه اشاره داشت. پیامدهای این موضوع نیز در دو سطح خرد و کلان مورد مداقه قرار گرفت.The Cycle of Security Crisis in the Relations between Israel and The Resistance Front (TRF); From “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation to Ismail Haniyeh Assassination
On October 7, 2023, the Hamas movement changed the paradigm of resistance from a defensive to an offensive approach for the first time in a surprise operation and attacked Zionist positions in a broad and rapid operation, which had tremendous political, security and military consequences for the region. On the one hand, this issue became a pretext for the Zionists to launch extensive retaliatory operations against Palestinian civilian positions, in such a way that the widespread killing of Palestinians and the bombing of civilian areas were carried out by the Zionists on a much larger scale than before. On the other hand, terrorist acts were carried out against scientific and military elites and officers of the Resistance Front from Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Hamas on several occasions and in different places, including the assassination of 7 Iranian military officers in the country's embassy in Damascus, Syria. Such actions once again started the cycle of security-political crisis between the Resistance Front and Israel against each other with greater intensity, so that this time the Islamic Republic of Iran launched extensive missile attacks against the occupied territories from within its borders for the first time, an action that remained fruitless despite the mediation of many regional and extra-regional powers. The peak of the aforementioned crisis was Israel's subsequent action in assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas movement, in Tehran and at the inauguration ceremony of the president, Massoud Pezeshkian an action that will certainly have very wide security-political consequences.
The importance of this issue can be examined and analyzed from several aspects. First, the occurrence of any extensive battle will open the door for other countries to this issue. For example, the United States and many European countries, which are considered strategic allies of Israel, have committed themselves to supporting this regime, whether in terms of military force or logistical equipment, and on the other hand, the pragmatic unity of the Resistance Front from Ansarullah of Yemen to the Popular Mobilization Forces of Iraq, Hezbollah of Lebanon, Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially in the Islamic rearmament and the acquisition of advanced, long-range missiles and extensive military force, along with the implicit support of Russia, will openly achieve a trans-regional war. The second importance is to examine the economic security situation and energy corridors of the region. Any long-term war will result in a dramatic increase in oil and gas prices, and given the Islamic Republic's naval dominance in the Persian Gulf, this will cause a major shake-up of the world's energy economy. As the Yemeni Ansarullah movement has shown on several occasions by seizing the economic and commercial ships of the Zionists and Americans, if the widespread attacks on the Yemenis are not stopped, widespread maritime insecurity will befall them. Third, “Toofan Al-Aqsa” and Operation True Promise operations have shown that the paradigm of struggle by the resistance will no longer lead to merely deterrent, limited, and defensive measures against Israeli actions, as in the past. Rather, any action by Israel will be responded to with a similar and even more extensive action by the Resistance Front.
With these brief introductions, the present article, using the interpretive method and the theory of the crisis cycle of Miles Hogg, has devoted its efforts to the study, analysis, and examination of the main question: How can the security crisis cycle in the relations between Israel and the Resistance Front be analyzed and evaluated realistically, with an emphasis on the years 2023 to 2024, that is, from “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh? The research findings showed that the security relations between Israel and the Resistance Front were analyzed from “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and based on the security crisis. Based on Miles Hogg's theory of the crisis cycle, the present study discussed and evaluated the aforementioned security crisis in a periodic or cyclical process. The results showed that in the first stage or historical aftermath of the crisis, the ideological conflict between Zionist Jews (based on the leadership, sovereignty, and superiority of the Jewish people and that they are the heirs of the Middle East region) and Shiite Islam (the principle of resistance and struggle against enemies and the effort to establish a just regional and international government and ultimately paving the way for the emergence of the savior of the end times) is the main factor in the historical aftermath of this crisis. In the development stage of the crisis, a series of events leading to Islamic post-war revival were discussed and examined, such as Israel's influence on the emergence and strength of Takfiri terrorist groups, the Abraham Accords in the form of Arab-Israeli peace, the extensive military attacks of this regime on the Palestinian people, and the lack of guarantees for implementation and the ability of international legal-political organizations and institutions to condemn and deter Israel's actions. In the collision or confrontation stage, the authors addressed important issues such as “Toofan Al-Aqsa” Operation on October 7, 2023, the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Operation True Promise, and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Finally, in the mediation or mediation stage, the limited actions of Qatar and some other countries in the region and the world, as well as the threats of the United States against the Resistance Front to a military presence in the region, were discussed and examined. Finally, the authors explained the consequences of this issue at both the micro and macro levels and showed that at the micro level, the intensification of militarism and efforts to fully equip the Middle East region, as well as the occurrence of widespread insecurity in the energy sectors, and at the macro level, two important consequences of changing the Iranian nuclear doctrine and transforming the security crisis of Israel and the Resistance Front into a full-fledged trans-regional one, seem likely in the not-too-distant future.
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