نقش ادوار تجاری در چگونگی اثرگذاری مخارج اجتماعی و فرهنگی دولت بر رفاه اجتماعی (رهیافت NARDL) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
یکی از مهم ترین کارکردهای دولت تخصیص صحیح مخارج برای ارائه بهتر خدمات فرهنگی و اجتماعی و ایجاد زیر ساخت های مناسب در این حوزه ها برای بهبود کیفیت زندگی شهروندان است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثرگذاری مخارج دولت در امور اجتماعی و فرهنگی و زیر فصول مربوطه بر روی شاخص رفاه اجتماعی آمارتیاسن در طی ادوار تجاری در اقتصاد ایران است. این مطالعه از مدل خود توضیح غیر خطی با وقفه های گسترده (NARDL) جهت برآورد داده های سری زمانی در طی دوره زمانی سال های 1398-1352 بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان دهنده آن است که شوک های مثبت مخارج دولت در امور اجتماعی و فرهنگی، فصول آموزش، تربیت بدنی، فرهنگ و هنر، رفاه اجتماعی و سلامت در طی دوره های رکود و رونق موجب افزایش رفاه اجتماعی به طور معنادار شده اند. شوک های منفی مخارج دولت نیز در فصول فرهنگ و هنر و آموزش در طی دوره های رکود و فصل رفاه اجتماعی در طی دوره های رونق موجب افزایش رفاه اجتماعی به طور معنادار شده اند. همچنین، در شوک های منفی مخارج دولت امور اجتماعی و فرهنگی در طی ادوار تجاری و فصل سلامت در طی دوره های رونق موجب کاهش رفاه اجتماعی به طور معنادار شده اند. با در نظر گرفتن شوک های مثبت مخارج دولت، امور اجتماعی و فرهنگی، فصول آموزش، تربیت بدنی، فرهنگ و هنر، رفاه اجتماعی و سلامت در دوره های رونق دارای اثرگذاری بیشتر بر روی رفاه اجتماعی هستند. این در حالی است که نتایج شوک های منفی مخارج دولت دلالت بر آن دارند که امور اجتماعی و فرهنگی و فصل آموزش دارای اثرگذاری بیشتر در دوره های رکود و فصول تربیت بدنی، فرهنگ و هنر، رفاه اجتماعی و سلامت دارای اثرگذاری بیشتر در دوره های رونق بر رفاه اجتماعی هستند.The Role of Business Cycles in the Impact of Government Social and Cultural Expenditures on Social Welfare (NARDL Approach)
EXTENDED ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION As a multidimensional concept, social welfare includes not only economic issues such as per capita income, but also other issues such as health, housing, education, employment, environment include for assessing individual well-being in a society (Noll, 2002). Ambia & Sujarwoto (2018) stated that government policies in the proper allocation of resources are a determining factor in increasing social welfare (Ambia & Sujarwoto, 2018).Thus, the evolution of government policies shows the importance of prioritizing government expenditure in increasing welfare. Along with the process of allocating government budgets in various sectors of the economy, governments have always keep the ratio of expenditures to GDP constant. So that they increase their expenditures slowly during the boom periods and refrain from rapidly declining expenditures during the recession (Ghasemi & Mohajeri, 2015). In other words, governments have to reduce economic fluctuations and make society stability to achieve goals such as increasing social welfare. Therefore, it is important to consider the role of business cycles in the correct implementation of government policies in increasing social welfare. METHODOLOGY It should be noted that all variables were considered logarithmically in the estimation model. In order to estimate the models during the period 1973-2019, research data have been collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Ministry of Economic Sciences and Finance, the Statistics Center of Iran and the World Bank. CONCLUSION and POLICY REMARKS The results show that the positive shocks of government expenditures on social and cultural affairs, the chapters of education, physical education, culture and art, social welfare and health have caused increasing social welfare significantly. The negative shocks of government expenditures on chapters of culture and art and education during periods of recession and social welfare chapter during periods of boom have caused increasing social welfare significantly. Also, in the negative shocks of government expenditures on social and cultural affairs during business cycles and the health chapter during boom periods have reduced social welfare, significantly. Considering the positive shock of government expenditures, social and cultural affairs, the chapters of education, physical education, culture and art, social welfare and health have a greater impact on social welfare during the boom period. while the results of negative shock of government expenditures, social and cultural affairs and the education chapters have a greater impact in the recession period and the chapters of physical education, culture and art, social welfare and health have a greater impact on social welfare in boom periods. Government Expenditure on social and cultural affairs and related sub-chapters during business cycles has had asymmetric effects on social welfare. Therefore, with a positive shock of government expenditures, government social and cultural s expenditures should be spent on the social welfare, culture and arts, physical education, health and education chapters during periods of recession and boom. Also, with negative shocks, government expenditures during periods of recession should be spent on the culture and arts and education chapters, and during boom periods on social welfare, culture, and arts chapters.
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