محمدصادق توکلی ثانی

INTRODUCTION: Iran is one of the 10 most disaster-prone countries in the world and out of the 42 known types of disasters, at least 31 of them have occurred in this country. Recent disaster experiences have taught us that warnings must be taken seriously and preparedness is necessary. Family readiness is considered as one of the most important pillars of public readiness and community readiness. Achievement of this goal requires a thorough program and various packages to build the culture of preparedness and education is one of its most important parts. METHODS: The present cross-sectional descriptive study was performed on 18100 families who participated in all the stages of training of the KHADEM National Program (Disaster Preparedness Program Serving Families and Communities) in Khorasan Razavi province. These families were selected based on the regional divisions of the implementation of the project and in the first stage, 18100 families were trained throughout the province. The participating families completed the Household Disaster Preparedness Index questionnaire before and after face-to-face training. FINDINGS: Assessment of the level of family readiness after the training showed an increase in this score. However, it was clear is that the distribution of the scores is not normal, and needs analysis and interpretation. CONCLUSION: The analysis of data and statistical model revealed that the training program was more effective in cities with a population of fewer than 50,000 people compared to cities with a population of more than 50,000 people.

Sustainability and resiliency analysis of cities is not completed without considering the whole system of interacting sectors. The purpose of this study is to introduce an algorithm for assessment of overall seismic resiliency increase of urban areas due to the reduction of Intra- and Interdependencies between different sectors and retrofitting infrastructures. The proposed method is versatile, and different dimensions of resiliency, i.e., social, economic, technical, physical, institutional, and security dimensions of resiliency are considered in the study. In this research, the technical dimension, i.e., the functionality of water and power networks are modeled as an example, and some solutions to increase overall resiliency of an urban district against earthquake is investigated. The algorithm is based on the inoperability input-output model, and the interaction between water and power sectors in a metropolitan district is surveyed. Based on the results of a number of Monte Carlo simulations of different dependency scenarios, it is quantitatively shown that the decrease in interdependency has a direct and great effect on the increase in serviceability and overall resiliency indices, but the pattern of this effect is different between various earthquake scenarios. It is concluded that the reduction of interdependency has an increasing effect on the overall resiliency index. Thus, an optimum value for interdependency reduction can be obtained to increase resiliency index using the Pareto principle, and the influence of reducing of interdependency on increasing the resiliency of a region as a whole is investigated. The proposed model may be used in system analysis for other dependent sectors and for different disasters and can also be considered as a helpful measure for decision-makers in sustainability and resiliency enhancement studies.