سید صفدر حسینی

Climate change, with its gradual and complex impacts, has increasingly inflicted damages on the agricultural sector of arid and semi-arid regions in Iran, including the Zayandeh-Rud Basin. This study aims to develop strategic adaptation policies to enhance agricultural resilience in response to climate change in this basin. The research is based on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) and the resilience criteria established by the World Economic Forum (2013). A descriptive-analytical methodology was employed, combining documentary studies, field surveys, and the Delphi policy method to achieve expert consensus. Purposive sampling targeted faculties, agricultural experts of the Ministry of Agriculture, as well as producers and exporters of agricultural products with substantial expertise in Climate change issues, adaptation policies, and resilience. Data collection instruments consisted of four structured questionnaires designed to identify strengths and weaknesses, weight resilience criteria, prioritize policies, and select strategies, complemented by semi-structured interviews. Initially, to determine the strategic position of agriculture in the Zayandeh-Rud Basin, Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE), External Factor Evaluation (EFE), and Internal-External (IE) matrices were utilized. Subsequently, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the multi-criteria decision-making PROMETHEE method were employed to prioritize adaptation policies aimed at enhancing resilience to Climate Change. Suitable strategies were developed and extracted through SWOT analysis, and finally, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) was used to evaluate the relative attractiveness and feasibility of each strategy, thereby selecting the implementable final policies. Findings indicated that agriculture in the Zayandeh-Rud Basin, with a final internal factor score of 2.04 and external factor score of 2.12, is in defensive position (survival mode) and exhibits low resilience due to water transfer and scarcity, land fragmentation and subsidence, and weaknesses in modern infrastructure. The most attractive adaptation policies identified under the defensive strategy include equitable water distribution (Total Attractiveness Score (TAS=1.46), development-oriented water resource planning (TAS=1.38), optimization of water. consumption and reduction of losses (TAS=1.35), control of groundwater levels (TAS=1.23), reform of regulations related to land fragmentation (TAS=1.18), and farmer participation in water resource management (TAS=1.16(. The proposed solutions emphasize strengthening integrated and basin-based water governance, implementing participatory strategic management models, investing in modern and soft technologies, gradually revising water-related laws and regulations, and expanding research and national strategy formulation. The results of this study provide actionable, stakeholder-inclusive recommendations for policymakers to enhance sustainability and resilience in vulnerable agricultural regions.