طراحی الگوی معیارهای مؤثر بر مکانیسم مدیریت توسعه استان خراسان جنوبی با رویکرد دلفی فازی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
توسعه مفهومی کیفی، همه جانبه و فراتر از موضوع کمی رشد است بنابراین نباید تنها به جنبه اقتصادی توسعه توجه کرد. هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی و طراحی الگوی معیارهای مؤثر بر مکانیسم مدیریت توسعه استان خراسان جنوبی بر اساس روش دلفی فازی می باشد. این پژوهش با توجه به هدف بنیادی و دارای رویکرد استقرایی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل خبرگان برگزیده و متخصص در راستای چارچوب توسعه اقتصادی استان بودند که از نظرات آن ها استفاده گردید. در فرآیند استخراج الگوی مدیریت توسعه استان خراسان جنوبی از روش دلفی فازی بهره گرفته شده است. بر اساس یافته های پژوهش هر یک از مولفه ها به ترتیب میزان اهمیت در هر طبقه اولویت بندی شده و در نهایت تعداد 5 معیار اصلی (اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی، علمی-فرهنگی و توسعه انسانی) و سی مولفه استخراج و اولویت بندی گردیدند. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که نرخ تورم بالا، سرمایه گذاری پایین، فقر، نبود راه آهن، سطح پایین امنیت و برابری اجتماعی، کیفیت پایین بروکراسی، فساد اداری، سطح پایین آزادی رسانه ها، مناقشات و تنش های قومی و مذهبی، رتبه پایین علمی دانشگاه ها، بیماری ها، واکسیناسیون، مرگ و میر نوزادان و مادران، کمبود مراکز درمانی و بهداشتی از مهم ترین موانع و دغدغه های توسعه در حوزه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی، علمی-فرهنگی و توسعه انسانی در استان خراسان جنوبی می باشند. بنابراین سیاست گذاران استانی باید توجه بیشتری به این مولفه ها جهت دستیابی به توسعه داشته باشند تا موانع بر سر راه توسعه استان مرتفع و رضایت عمومی حاصل گردد.Designing a Model of Criteria Influencing the Provincial Development Management Mechanism in South Khorasan: A Fuzzy Delphi Approach
Introduction After the end of World War II, in the 1950s to 1970s, the concept of development was considered in the form of economic growth, but later development was defined as a concept that pays attention to all economic, political, social and cultural dimensions of a society. Development is a comprehensive process of economic, social, cultural and political activities that aims to continuously improve the lives of the entire population and the fair distribution of resources is one of its main pillars. Therefore, development is a qualitative, comprehensive concept that goes beyond the quantitative issue of growth, so we should not only pay attention to the economic aspect of development. The main question of the present study is what are the most important obstacles to the development of South Khorasan Province that have overshadowed the development management mechanism? The present study was conducted in the territorial territory of South Khorasan Province and designed a model of effective criteria on the development management mechanism of the province based on the fuzzy Delphi method. One of the development strategies for South Khorasan Province can be to identify the obstacles in the way of the province's development so that policymakers can overcome them and achieve public satisfaction. Materials and methods This research is based on the fundamental objective and has an inductive approach. Initially, the factors and components of the research were identified and modified based on relevant domestic and foreign research and the opinions of experts in the province. The statistical population of the research included selected and specialized experts in the framework of the economic development of the province who had characteristics such as availability, experience, appropriateness of the field of study, research background, and executive expertise in this field, totaling 54 people, whose opinions were used. In this study, the census method was used to determine the sample size, and the sample size was determined to be 54 people. In the process of extracting the development management model of South Khorasan Province, the fuzzy Delphi method was used. In this method, instead of referring to different people who may not have the necessary information for the researcher, experts are referred to; therefore, sampling occurs in a deliberate and selected manner. Referral to experts continues until the researcher reaches theoretical saturation (consensus) and concludes that nothing new will be discovered. Regarding the determination of the sample size based on Grisham's (2009) view on the number of respondents to questionnaire questions in the field of Delphi technique, what is important in selecting sample members is their unbiased response to the questions, their interest in the topic or subject under discussion, and most importantly, their sufficient knowledge or information in the field under study; therefore, in some studies, at least 15 people are considered as informed individuals (Safri et al., 2015). Therefore, in the present study, the number of 54 questionnaires that can be examined shows that in this respect, the results of this study can be relied upon. Findings The prioritization of the basic components affecting the development management of South Khorasan Province was done from the perspective of elites and experts. High inflation rate, low investment, poverty, usury, low productivity rate of production resources, high unemployment rate, class differences and corruption are the main obstacles to the province's economic development. In the social sphere, the lack of railways, low level of security and participation, and social cohesion and equality are the central problems of the province. Low quality of bureaucracy, administrative corruption, low level of media freedom, ethnic and religious conflicts and tensions are the main problems of the province's political sphere. The literacy rate, inventions and low scientific ranking of universities in the scientific sphere are the most central concerns of the province's scientific and cultural sphere. Diseases, vaccination, infant and maternal mortality, lack of medical and health centers and low level of primary education are the most important issues and concerns in the field of health, treatment and education or human development index. Discussion and Conclusion The results of the study indicate that high inflation rate, low investment, poverty, lack of railways, low level of security and social equality, low quality of bureaucracy, administrative corruption, low level of media freedom, ethnic and religious conflicts and tensions, low academic ranking of universities, diseases, vaccination, infant and maternal mortality, lack of medical and health centers are obstacles and concerns for development in the economic, social, political, scientific-cultural and human development fields in South Khorasan Province. Finally, considering the analysis of statistical results extracted from the opinions of experts, it can be said that the most effective factors or in other words the most important components that require more attention from provincial officials are inflation rate, quality of bureaucracy, fight against infectious diseases and investment. Therefore, it can be said that these four components will be among the main obstacles to the development of South Khorasan Province. If they are not paid attention to, that is, if steps are not taken by national and provincial officials to reduce the inflation rate, increase investment in the province, combat infectious diseases, and increase the quality of bureaucracy, the path to development in South Khorasan Province will not be smooth. It can also be said that in the development of South Khorasan Province, economic, political, and health criteria are more important than other criteria.
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