تحلیل اثرات دگردیسی مکانی- فضایی کاربری اراضی پیرامون کلانشهر اصفهان با تأکید بر پایداری اکولوژیکی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تغییرات کاربری اراضی پیرامون کلان شهر اصفهان از سال 1365 تا 1403 و اثرات آن بر پایداری اکولوژیکی می پردازد. داده های این مطالعه شامل تصاویر ماهواره ای لندست و تحلیل های GIS بوده که با استفاده از مدل تغییر کاربری زمین (LCM)، مدل مارکوف و الگوریتم جنگل تصادفی پردازش شده اند. نتایج نشان می دهد که طی این دوره، مساحت اراضی ساخته شده از 25,249 هکتار در سال 1365 به 43,593 هکتار در سال 1403 افزایش یافته است، درحالی که اراضی زراعی از 29,284 هکتار به 18,218 هکتار و اراضی باغی از 17,734 هکتار به 10,603 هکتار کاهش یافته اند. همچنین، منابع آبی منطقه از 231 هکتار در سال 1365 به کمتر از 60 هکتار در سال 1403 رسیده است که نشان دهنده بحران آبی در منطقه است. بررسی مدل مارکوف نشان می دهد که تا سال 1413، اراضی ساخته شده همچنان روند افزایشی خواهند داشت و 81/44٪ از اراضی زراعی و 97/39٪ از اراضی باغی به مناطق شهری تبدیل خواهند شد. این تغییرات علاوه برافزایش دمای سطحی و کاهش جذب کربن، باعث کاهش نفوذپذیری خاک و افزایش خطر سیلاب خواهد شد. یافته ها نشان می دهد که بدون مداخلات مدیریتی مؤثر، روند تخریب زیست محیطی ادامه خواهد داشت. بنابراین، این پژوهش بر ضرورت برنامه ریزی پایدار برای مدیریت کاربری اراضی و حفاظت از منابع طبیعی در کلان شهر اصفهان تأکید دارد.Analyzing the Spatio-Temporal Transformation of Land Use Around the Isfahan Metropolis with an Emphasis on Ecological Sustainability
Introduction In recent decades, the phenomenon of urban expansion has become one of the most critical challenges facing metropolitan and surrounding areas. As cities grow in both population and physical size, they exert increasing influence over adjacent rural areas, often resulting in a transformation of traditional land use patterns and socio-economic structures. Peri-urban areas—those transitional zones between urban cores and rural hinterlands—represent dynamic and complex spaces where urban and rural characteristics coexist and often conflict. These areas are particularly vulnerable to disorganized and unregulated development due to their ambiguous legal and administrative status. This study investigates the spatiotemporal transformations of land use in the periphery of Isfahan from 1986 to 2024, focusing on their ecological impacts. The primary research questions are: How has the land-use pattern changed over time? What are the ecological consequences of these changes? The research highlights the necessity of sustainable urban planning to mitigate environmental degradation. Methodology The study employs a descriptive-analytical and applied approach. Satellite images from Landsat (5, 7, 8, and 9) were obtained from the USGS database to analyze land-use changes. The images underwent preprocessing, including geometric and radiometric corrections. The study classified land use into five categories: built-up areas, agricultural lands, orchards, barren lands, and water bodies. The classification was performed using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, and change detection was carried out through the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Markov Chain modeling. The accuracy of classification was assessed using training and validation datasets, ensuring reliability in detecting temporal changes. Results and discussion Findings indicate a significant increase in built-up areas, from 25,249 hectares in 1986 to 43,593 hectares in 2024. Conversely, agricultural lands declined from 29,284 hectares to 18,218 hectares, and orchards decreased from 17,734 hectares to 10,603 hectares. Water bodies shrank dramatically from 231 hectares in 1986 to less than 60 hectares in 2024, signaling a water crisis. The results from the Markov model predict that by 2034, 44.81% of agricultural lands and 39.97% of orchards will be converted into urban areas, exacerbating ecological challenges such as rising surface temperatures, reduced soil permeability, and increased flood risk. The study underscores that without proper urban management, land degradation will persist, threatening ecological balance. Conclusion The peri-urban expansion of Isfahan illustrates a broader pattern of disorganized growth in Iranian metropolitan peripheries. The study concludes that despite the existence of multiple legal and institutional mechanisms, their fragmented implementation has failed to manage rapid and unauthorized development effectively. This has resulted in the loss of agricultural land, degradation of natural resources, and growing socio-spatial inequalities. The research calls for a rethinking of governance in peri-urban areas through integrated spatial planning, legal reform, and institutional capacity-building. Recommended actions include: (1) establishing a clear urban growth boundary for Isfahan; (2) strengthening inter-agency coordination; (3) revising land use laws to increase enforceability; and (4) promoting inclusive planning practices that involve local stakeholders. Funding There is no funding support. Authors ’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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