ارزیابی روستاهای گردشگری از لحاظ مخاطره زمین لغزش در استان اصفهان با الگوریتم های تحلیل فضایی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
طرح مسئله: برنامه ریزی مدیریت و توسعه گردشگری روستایی نیازمند شناخت مسائل مختلف آنها ازجمله مدیریت بحران و منابع طبیعی است. مخاطرات احتمالی ازجمله زمین لغزش از مهم ترین این مسائل است که روستاهای گردشگری همواره با آنها مواجهه هستند و باتوجه به تغییرات اقلیمی و محیطی انجام شده توسط بشر، درحال گسترش است. هدف: هدف پژوهش حاضر آن است که روستاهای گردشگری ازلحاظ مخاطره زمین لغزش در استان اصفهان ارزیابی و وضعیت آنها در دو سناریوی بدبینانه و خوش بینانه مشخص شود. روش پژوهش: روش پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی و مبتنی بر داده های مکانی است. تجزیه وتحلیل داده ها به روش بولین در دو سناریوی بدبینانه و خوش بینانه در نرم افزار Arc GIS انجام شد. داده ها در محیط نرم افزار استاندار دسازی و ازطریق الگوریتم های فضایی تحلیل شدند. نتیجه پژوهش: نتیجه نشان داد که در سناریوی خوش بینانه، فقط 27/1092 کیلومترمربع معادل 032/1درصد از مساحت به عنوان پهنه های با «احتمال زمین لغزش» و در سناریوی بدبینانه مساحت «احتمال زمین لغزش» 3/91521 کیلومترمربع معادل 53/86درصد افزایش پیدا می کند. همچنین نتیجه نشان داد که روستاهای گردشگری منطقه در هر دو سناریو، در معرض خطر زمین لغزش قرار دارند که می توان به روستاهای مشهد کاوه، هاردانگ، خفر، جاجا و دماب اشاره کرد. تبیین تفاوت درخور توجه میان دو سناریو نشان می دهد که مدیریت و برنامه ریزی محیطی و آمایش سرزمین برای کاهش ریسک زمین لغزش ضروری است. درصورت کنترل نکردن عوامل مؤثر بر ناپایداری زمین، بخش وسیعی از منطقه در سناریوی بدبینانه آسیب پذیر خواهد بود.Evaluating Tourism Villages in terms of Landslide Hazard in Isfahan Province Using Spatial Analysis Algorithms
Background: Effective management and development of rural tourism necessitate a comprehensive understanding of various challenges, including crisis management and sustainable use of natural resources. Among these challenges, hazards like landslides pose significant risks to tourist villages, particularly as they increasingly result from human-induced climate change and environmental degradation. Purpose: This study aimed to assess the landslide hazard in tourism villages within Isfahan Province, evaluating their vulnerability under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. Research Method : The research employed a descriptive-analytical approach grounded in spatial data analysis. Data were analyzed using the Boolean method in ArcGIS software, applying spatial algorithms after standardizing the data within the software environment. Findings: The analysis revealed that in the optimistic scenario, only 1,092.27 square kilometers (1.032% of the area) were classified as having a "probability of landslides". In contrast, the pessimistic scenario showed a substantial increase with 91,521.3 km 2 (86.53%) at risk. The findings indicated that tourist villages, including Mashhad Kaveh, Hardang, Khafar, Jaja, and Damab, were vulnerable to landslides in both scenarios. The significant difference between the two scenarios underscored the urgent need for effective environmental management and land-use planning to mitigate landslide hazards. Failure to address the factors contributing to land instability might render a large portion of the region susceptible in the pessimistic scenario. Keywords: Landslide Hazard, Tourism Village, Spatial Algorithms, GIS. Introduction Rural tourism has emerged as one of the most significant forms of tourism over the past decade, while being driven by changing human lifestyles. Effective planning for the management and development of this sector requires a thorough understanding of various challenges, including crisis management and sustainable use of natural resources. Among these challenges, hazards like landslides pose critical risks to tourist villages, particularly as their frequencies increase due to human-induced climate change and environmental degradation. Landslides represent a form of mass movement characterized by the downward and outward displacement of slope-forming materials along natural hillslopes. They result from a combination of factors, including geological conditions, slope gradient, precipitation, land cover, and human activities. The causes of landslides can be broadly categorized into two groups: natural factors—such as geology, climate, topography, and vegetation cover—and anthropogenic factors, including land-use changes, road construction, and development activities. These factors, whether acting independently or in concert, can significantly compromise slope stability and trigger landslides. Tourist villages in Isfahan Province hold a unique position in attracting both domestic and international visitors due to their distinctive natural, cultural, and historical attributes. Being situated in areas with pristine landscapes and natural springs, these villages offer numerous opportunities for sustainable tourism development. However, alongside the economic and social benefits, they face environmental threats and hazards. One of the most pressing case of these threats is the risk of landslides, which is particularly high given the specific climatic, geological, and topographic conditions present in many of these villages. This poses a serious challenge to the sustainable development of tourism in the region. The primary objective of this research was to identify potential landslide-prone areas within the tourist villages of Isfahan Province and assess the severity of this issue under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. Materials & Methods This research adopted a descriptive-analytical approach and was applied in nature. The data utilized in this study comprised spatial data from the Mapping Organization, alongside meteorological statistics. Initially, key criteria for evaluating vulnerability of the tourist villages to landslide hazards were identified. 8 significant and relevant criteria were selected for analysis: altitude, slope, land cover, rainfall, soil type, distance from watercourses, distance from faults, and distance from roads. These criteria were standardized to ensure comparability. Subsequently, the landslide phenomenon was analyzed using the Boolean model and spatial algorithms within ArcGIS software. Research Findings The results of the pessimistic scenario indicated that a significant portion of the region was classified as landslide-prone. Higher-risk areas were distributed across various directions within the province with the highest concentration found in the western and southern regions. Contributing factors included climatic conditions, soil composition, slope, altitude, land-use changes, and other environmental and human influences. Notably, the highest density of tourist villages was also situated in the western part of the province. Villages, such as Mashhad Kaveh, Hardang, Damab, Jaja, Narmeh, Khafar, and Kalhorud, were located in areas susceptible to landslides. In contrast, the final map for the optimistic scenario revealed that fewer areas were identified as being at risk for landslides. These identified zones were dispersed throughout the province; yet, the highest potential for landslides remained in the western and southern regions. Under the optimistic scenario, an area of 104,668 km 2 —equivalent to 98.96% of the total area—was categorized as "no landslide probability". This suggested that, under favorable conditions, the likelihood of landslides was confined to a very limited portion of the region, with only 27.11 km 2 (0.032%) designated as "landslide probability" zones. This scenario indicated that, in stable conditions and absent significant environmental pressures, most areas were relatively safe, minimizing the risk of landslides. Conversely, in the pessimistic scenario, the area classified as "no landslide probability" decreased to 14,238.94 km 2 (13.46%), while the area identified as "landslide probability" increased dramatically to 91,521.3 km 2 (86.53%). This scenario assumed unfavorable environmental, climatic, and geological conditions, leading to a sharp rise in the likelihood of landslides and placing a significant portion of the region at risk. The optimistic scenario reflected a stable environment with a very low probability of landslides. In contrast, the pessimistic scenario depicted an unstable situation where a significant portion of the area was at risk. This disparity highlighted the influence of environmental conditions and various pressures—such as precipitation, climate change, and human interventions—on land stability. The considerable difference between the two scenarios underscored the necessity of environmental management and land-use planning to mitigate landslide risks. Without effective control of the factors contributing to land instability, a substantial part of the area could become vulnerable in the pessimistic scenario. The results indicated that, under the optimistic scenario, the correlation between the criteria and landslide occurrence ranged from low to moderate. The strongest correlations were found with slope (0.251), distance from streams (0.246), and distance from roads (0.245). In contrast, the lowest correlations were associated with soil type (0.222) and precipitation (0.223). Under the pessimistic scenario, correlation levels increased significantly. The strongest associations with landslide occurrence were seen with distance from fault lines (0.539) and elevation (0.372). Meanwhile, slope presented the weakest correlation in this scenario with a value of 0.185. This comparison illustrated that, in a pessimistic context where the likelihood of landslides was perceived to be higher, geological factors, such as proximity to fault lines and elevation, played a more critical role. Conversely, in the optimistic scenario, topographical and hydrological variables—such as slope and distance from streams—were more significant. These differences in correlation patterns emphasized the importance of evaluating multiple scenarios when assessing landslide hazard potential and developing effective risk mitigation strategies. One of the key findings of this study was the significant impact of human activities on land instability. Factors like unauthorized construction, land-use changes, deforestation, pasture degradation, and expansion of road networks—often without adequate consideration of geological conditions—were major contributors to the increased occurrence of landslides. This issue was particularly pressing in the western regions of the province, where there was a high concentration of tourist villages. Villages, such as Mashhad Kaveh, Hardang, and Khafr, which were located in high-risk zones, had become increasingly vulnerable due to intensified construction and development activities. The comparison between the two scenarios highlighted the urgent need for precise and proactive management strategies, especially in areas with a high susceptibility to landslides. Continuous monitoring and regulatory measures could play a crucial role in preventing the shift from an optimistic to a pessimistic scenario, thereby minimizing potential hazards and enhancing environmental safety. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The analysis of various scenarios in this study revealed that landslides were among the most significant natural hazards affecting the study area and its tourist villages. Their occurrence was influenced by a range of environmental, climatic, and geological factors. By examining these factors through both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, we achieved a more accurate assessment of land stability in the region. Each scenario painted a potential future landscape, serving as a valuable foundation for planning and decision-making regarding the management of natural hazards in relation to tourist villages and the surrounding area.
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