تحلیل اثرهای خشکسالی بر جوامع روستایی شهرستان خمین (دهستان رستاق) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
درحال حاضر خشکسالی یکی از مخاطره های مهم طبیعی است که اثر های مستقیم و غیر مستقیم به ویژه در نواحی روستایی دارد. از جمله پیامدهای خشکسالی تأثیرگذاری آن بر ابعاد زندگی جوامع روستایی است؛ از این رو بررسی علمی این پدیده برای برنامه ریزی و مقابله با آن ضروری است. روش پژوهش در این مطالعه از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی بوده و برای جمع آوری داده ها از روش میدانی و اسنادی استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری شامل 1344 خانوار روستایی دهستان رستاق شهرستان خمین بوده است که از آن میان 229 خانوار با استفاده از جدول مورگان و به روش نمونه گیری تصادفی انتخاب شد. در پژوهش حاضر پرسشنامه ای بر مبنای طیف لیکرت در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیط زیستی و کالبدی برای جمع آوری اطلاعات تهیه شده و ابزار تحلیل داده ها نرم افزار SPSS، مدل FARAS و مدل Fuzzy vikor بوده است. نتایج حاصل از یافته های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که بیشترین تأثیر خشکسالی به ترتیب بر ابعاد اقتصادی با وزن (434/0)، اجتماعی (430/0)، کالبدی (419/0) و محیط زیستی (390/0) بوده است که متغیرهای کاهش درآمد، کاهش پس انداز (بُعد اقتصادی)، افزایش مهاجرت از روستا (بُعد اجتماعی)، تغییر کاربری اراضی (بُعد کالبدی) و در نهایت، فرسایش خاک (بُعد محیط زیستی) بیشترین تأثیرپذیری را از این مخاطره داشته است. همچنین، خشکسالی در روستای پشتکوه بیشترین تأثیر و در روستای حشمتیه کمترین تأثیر را داشته است.Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rural Communities in Khomein County (Case Study: Rastaq District)
Drought is currently recognized as one of the most significant natural hazards, exerting both direct and indirect effects, particularly in rural areas. One of its major consequences is the impact on various aspects of rural communities' lives. Therefore, a scientific investigation of this phenomenon is essential for effective planning and mitigation of its effects. This study employed a descriptive-analytical research method with data collected through both fieldwork and documentary sources. The statistical population consisted of 1,344 rural households in Rastaq District of Khomein County, from which 299 households were selected using Morgan's table and random sampling. A questionnaire based on the Likert scale was developed to gather information regarding economic, social, environmental, and physical dimensions. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS, the FARAS model, and the Fuzzy VIKOR model. The results indicated that the most significant impact of drought was felt in the following order: economic dimension (weight: 0.434), social dimension (weight: 0.430), physical dimension (weight: 0.419), and environmental dimension (weight: 0.390). Among the variables assessed, the most affected were reduced income and decreased savings (economic dimension), increased rural migration (social dimension), land use change (physical dimension), and soil erosion (environmental dimension). Additionally, the village of Poshtkuh experienced the greatest impact from drought, while the village of Heshmtiyeh faced the least. Keywords : Drought Effects, Rural Communities, Rastaq District, Khomein. Introduction Drought is undoubtedly one of the most significant and enduring natural disasters that humanity has faced throughout history. According to a UN report, 31 countries are projected to experience water shortages in the near future, with Iran identified as one of the most critical nations affected by this issue. Iran's diverse climate influenced by its unique geographical location and topographical features results in an average annual rainfall of only 220 to 295 mm. Given its position within a dry climatic zone and the overall scarcity of precipitation, it is clear that water crises and drought are defining characteristics of the region. The rural communities in Iran, representing one of the three main human societies, have been particularly impacted by drought-related crises, resulting in severe challenges to their livelihoods and economies. Historical strategies for drought management in these areas have proven largely ineffective, failing to address water shortages, pasture reductions, and rural migration. Khomein County, which contains over 100 villages that primarily rely on agriculture, has not been able to escape the effects of drought. According to the National Meteorological Organization, 99% of the region is experiencing drought conditions with 69% classified as severe. The lack of effective support programs and inadequate crisis management by government institutions have exacerbated the negative impacts of drought on the lives of rural residents. The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of drought on the various dimensions of rural community life and propose solutions for mitigation. This study sought to answer two key questions: Which aspects of rural community life have been most affected by drought and in which village has the impact been the greatest or least? Materials & Methods This research was practical in its purpose and employed a descriptive-analytical method, utilizing both fieldwork and documentary analysis. Drought creates a complex network of effects that impacts various economic, social, and environmental sectors. This study aimed to elucidate the economic, social, environmental, and physical effects of drought from a geographical perspective. In this context, the study examined the economic dimensions through 11 variables, social dimensions through 5 variables, environmental dimensions through 5 variables, and physical dimensions through 3 variables. Data on these variables were gathered using a library research method, which involved reviewing relevant literature and theoretical foundations. A questionnaire was then developed based on Table 2, utilizing a Likert scale to collect information across the economic, social, environmental, and physical dimensions. The statistical population consisted of 1,344 rural households in the Rastaq District of Khomein County. From this population, 299 households were selected using Morgan's table and random sampling methods. To assess the effectiveness of each indicator within the studied (economic, social, physical, and environmental) dimensions, a one-sample T-test was employed. Prior to conducting the test, the normality of the distribution of the dimensions was verified using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Subsequently, to rank each of the studied dimensions, the Aras fuzzy model was applied. Finally, the VIKOR fuzzy model was utilized for spatial analysis of each village, assessing the level of vulnerability to drought based on the examined dimensions. Research Findings The research findings indicated that the economic dimension had the highest impact rate from drought in the Rostaq District with a weight of 0.434 followed by the social dimension at 0.430, physical dimension at 0.419, and environmental dimension at 0.390, which had the lowest impact rate. In terms of village-specific impact, Pushtkoh ranked highest with a weight of 1 followed by Rihan Alia at 0.764, Rehan Sofli at 0.654, Ghazeh Mohammad Malik at 0.564, Derbandleran at 0.417, Farang at 0.388, Sakaneh at 0.315, and Heshmatieh, which had the lowest impact rate at 0. These weights reflected the varying levels of impact from drought across the economic, social, physical, and environmental dimensions within these villages. Discussion of Results & Conclusion Based on the investigations conducted in the study area and review of relevant resources, it was evident that investing in modern irrigation systems—such as pressurized irrigation, drip irrigation, and rain irrigation (a type of pressurized method)—could mitigate the negative effects of drought. However, it is important to acknowledge that these solutions might also introduce new risks. In the studied area, drought had resulted in significant vegetation loss, primarily due to water stress that caused plant mortality. Vegetation plays a crucial role in stabilizing the soil and preventing erosion. When vegetation diminishes, the soil becomes increasingly vulnerable to erosion, which heightens the risk of land subsidence. Drought contributes to land subsidence through various mechanisms, particularly by depleting groundwater resources. Overall, the consequences of drought in the study area included a decrease in employment within the agricultural sector, falling land prices, reduced agricultural transactions, increased unemployment, heightened migration from villages, rising poverty rates, soil erosion, changes in land use, and a decline in surface water availability.
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