نقش چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی بهره برداری از منابع مشترک نفت و گاز بر توسعه اقتصادی ایران (مطالعه موردی: میادین مشترک انرژی ایران و عراق) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
همواره ایران و عراق به عنوان دو بازیگر کلیدی در ژئوپلیتیک انرژی خاورمیانه، با چالش های سیاسی، نظامی و اقتصادی متعددی مواجه هستند. موقعیت استراتژیک ایران در خلیج فارس و ارتباط آن با بازارهای بزرگ مصرف انرژی، ضرورت بررسی بهره برداری بهینه از میادین مشترک نفت و گاز را افزایش می دهد. با وجود این مزیت ها، دولت مردان ایران نتوانسته اند به طور مؤثر از این ویژگی ها بهره برداری کنند و چالش های بهره برداری از میادین مشترک انرژی می تواند بر جنبه های مختلف توسعه اقتصادی تاثیرگذار باشد. در این راستا مقاله حاضر با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و کاربردی، نقش چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی بهره برداری از منابع مشترک نفت و گاز بر توسعه اقتصادی ایران را مورد مطالعه قرار می دهد. جامعه آماری پژوهش از کلیه کارشناسان و اساتید ژئوپلیتیک تشکیل شده که حجم نمونه آن تعداد 44 نفر تخمین زده شد. در راستای تحلیل یافته ها نیز از آزمون های میانگین در نرم افزارSPSS و از مدل تصمیم گیری چندشاخصه(تاپسیس) در نرم افزار MATLAB استفاده گردید. پرسش اصلی پژوهش حاضر این مساله است که چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی در راستای استفاده از منابع مشترک نفتی چه اثراتی بر توسعه اقتصادی ایران دارد؟ نتایج نشان می دهد که چالش های اقتصادی، عوامل داخلی و چالش های نفوذ قدرت های منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای در حوزه انرژی مهم ترین چالش های ژئوپلیتیکی میادین مشترک نفت و گاز ایران و عراق هستند و چالش های توسعه میادین مشترک انرژی بر مولفه ه ای حکمروایی سیاسی، کاهش رشد اشتغال، کاهش توسعه اجتماعی و مولفه های رفاه عمومی اثرگذار است.The Role of Geopolitical Challenges in the Exploitation of Joint Oil and Gas Resources in Iran's Economic Development (Case Study: Joint Energy Fields of Iran and Iraq)
Extended Abstract
Introduction
As two key players in the energy geopolitics of the Middle East, Iran and Iraq have historically faced numerous political, military, and economic challenges. Iran's strategic location in the Persian Gulf and its connection to major energy consuming markets increase the need to examine the optimal exploitation of shared oil and gas fields. Despite these advantages, Iranian government officials have not been able to effectively exploit these features, and the challenges of exploiting shared energy fields can affect various aspects of economic development. However, despite enjoying this privileged position, Iranian statesmen in the past have not been able to make optimal use of this unique feature in accordance with national interests and security. Exploitation of joint oil and gas fields on land and sea is important for Iran, so the way our neighbors exploit the joint fields and compare it with our country's exploitation of these fields should be carefully monitored. In this context, oil as the most important strategic resource of the countries of Southwest Asia has always had an increasing political and economic weight in the geopolitical structure of the two countries of Iran and Iraq. Along the common border of Iran and Iraq, there are 6 oil reservoirs: Naftshahr (formerly Naft Shah), Dehloran, Paydar Gharb, Azadegan, Azar and Yadavaran (formerly Hosseiniyeh-Koshk). Currently, the Dehloran, Paydar Gharb and Naft Shahr fields are in production and the Yadavaran and Azadegan fields are in various stages of development. The continuation of the Naft Shahr field in Iraq is known as the Naft Khaneh field. The Azadegan and Yadavaran fields are located in the vicinity of the Majnoon and Sinbad fields in Iraq, respectively, in which case the oil fields may face international challenges in the coming years. Therefore, the present study seeks to answer the question of what are the most important geopolitical challenges in the utilization of shared oil resources and what impact can geopolitical challenges have on the dimensions of Iran's economic development in line with the utilization of shared oil resources?
Methodology
The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of method and nature, and applied (practical) in terms of purpose. In order to assess the relationships between the variables of the conceptual model, data were collected quantitatively using questionnaires designed according to the research literature review and theoretical foundations. The statistical population of the present study included 50 university professors in the fields of political science, political geography, international relations, geopolitics, and strategic management, as well as experts in political-military fields and individuals affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran who are familiar with oil and energy study resources. Given the lack of accurate knowledge about the target population, a preliminary study was first conducted by distributing questionnaires to a limited number of professors and experts, and by estimating the variance of the statistical sample at the 95% confidence level, the sample size was calculated, of which 44 people were determined based on the Cochran model. The scale of the present questionnaires was designed as a 5-option Likert scale (option 1: very little, option 2: little, option 3: no opinion, option 4: a lot, and option 5: very much). In order to analyze the data and based on the results obtained from the questionnaire, the results of the present data were calculated through the mean test and the binomial test in SPSS software and compared with each index. Finally, the indices were evaluated and analyzed. Cronbach's alpha coefficient and composite reliability index (CVR2) were used to evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire statements. Also, to evaluate the validity of the questionnaire, the Lavoisier validity method based on validation (CVR) was used.
Finding
The findings show that the most important geopolitical challenges of the joint oil and gas fields of Iran and Iraq include economic challenges, external factor variables, the impact of internal factor variables, the impact of macro-management level factor variables, environmental challenges of developing oil fields in the west of the country, and the impact of regional and trans-regional powers on the development of oil fields in the west of the country.
Result
In this context, the relationship between the aforementioned challenges and economic development was analyzed based on the multi-attribute decision-making model (TOPSIS). In the field of descriptive statistics, in the field of descriptive statistics of the geopolitical challenges of the joint oil and gas fields of the two countries of Iran and Iraq, the results show that economic challenges with high scores and significant averages have been identified as one of the most important and influential factors. Also, internal variables and the influence of regional and trans-regional powers are also considered as key challenges in this area. Finally, macro-management factors also have significant effects, while environmental challenges have the least effect. Finally, in relation to measuring the effects of the geopolitical challenges of using joint oil resources with Iraq and Iran's economic development, it seems that the challenges of developing the joint oil fields of Iran and Iraq have significant effects on political governance indicators, reduced employment growth, social development, and components of public welfare. Studies show that this impact on the components of citizens' general well-being, as well as social development and employment growth, is greater than on things such as quality of life indicators and gross domestic product.
In this context, the present study employs a descriptive-analytical and applied methodology to examine the role of geopolitical challenges in the exploitation of shared oil and gas resources on Iran's economic development. The statistical population of the research comprises experts and professors in geopolitics, with a sample size estimated at 40 individuals. To analyze the findings, mean tests were conducted using SPSS software, and a multi-criteria decision-making model (TOPSIS) was utilized in MATLAB. The main research question investigates the potential effects of geopolitical challenges related to the utilization of shared oil resources on various dimensions of Iran's economic development. The results indicate that economic challenges, internal factors, and the influence of regional and extra-regional powers in the energy sector are the most significant geopolitical challenges concerning the shared oil and gas fields of Iran and Iraq. Furthermore, the challenges related to the development of shared energy fields impact political governance, employment growth, social development, and public welfare.
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