تحلیل فضایی رابطه عوامل اکولوژیکی و قیمت مسکن در شهر تهران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
انسان ها به دنبال مکان هایی هستند که کیفیت زندگی خوبی دارند. کیفیت زندگی تا حدود زیادی تابع عوامل محیطی است. از این نظر، عوامل محیطی تأثیر چشمگیری بر ارزش دارایی دارد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر پی بردن به این مفهوم است که در شهر تهران تا چه میزان تفاوت های فضایی قیمت املاک مسکونی تابع عوامل اکولوژیکی است؟ در این مطالعه داده ها از سامانه املاک، ایستگاه های سینوپتیک هواشناسی، ایستگاه کنترل کیفیت هوا، شیپ فایل کاربری اراضی و سازمان فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات شهرداری تهران به دست آمده است. با ورود داده ها به سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی برای هر کدام یک لایه اطلاعاتی ساخته شده است. ۴۰۰ نقطه با مرکزیت محله های شهر تهران ملاک محاسبات تحلیلی بوده که اطلاعات مربوط به آنها برای تمامی متغیرها حاصل شده است. برای تولید و تحلیل داده های لازم از نزم افزار ArcGIS و توابعSpatial Analyst Tools استفاده شده است. یافته ها دلالت بر این دارد که مطلوبیت عوامل اکولوژیکی از شمال به جنوب شهر کاسته می شود و به دنبال آن قیمت مسکن نیز کاهش می یابد. رقم همبستگی 71/0+ نشان می دهد که میان قیمت ملک و مطلوبیت عوامل اکولوژیکی در سطح بالایی رابطه وجود دارد. در ارزش مبادلاتی مسکن منطقه 1 به عنوان شمالی ترین منطقه و منطقه 20 به عنوان جنوبی ترین منطقه است که میانگین قیمت در آنها حدود 3 برابر متفاوت است؛ بنابراین با وجود نقش آفرینی اقتصاد سیاسی و دگرگونی های عمیقی که با ورود و تجلی مدرنیسم در کالبد شهر ایجاد شده است، هنوز هم شیب اقتصادی-اجتماعی شمال به جنوب شهر با شیب مطلوبیت اکولوژکی که با جایگزینی اقتصاد سیاسی و بازیگری سرمایه در جای مطلوبیت طبیعی محیط بازتولید می شود، انطباق دارد.Spatial Analysis of the Relationship between Ecological Factors and Housing Prices in Tehran
Humans seek locations that offer a high quality of life, which is significantly influenced by environmental factors. Consequently, these factors play a crucial role in determining real estate values. This research aimed to explore the extent to which spatial variations in residential property prices in Tehran were affected by ecological factors. Data were collected from various sources, including real estate websites, meteorological synoptic stations, air quality monitoring stations, a GIS file of Tehran's land use, and the Information and Communication Technology Organization of Tehran Municipality. The data were integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS), focusing on 400 points representing the geometric centers of neighborhoods in Tehran. These points served as the basis for analytical calculations with information gathered for all relevant variables. Using ArcGIS software and Spatial Analyst Tools, we generated the necessary data. The findings indicated a decreasing desirability of ecological factors from the north to the south of the city corresponding to a decline in housing prices. The correlation coefficient of +0.71 demonstrated a strong relationship between housing prices and desirability of ecological factors. Notably, there was approximately a threefold difference in average housing prices between District 1 (the northernmost district) and District 20 (the southernmost). In conclusion, despite the influence of political and economic factors and the profound changes brought about by modernity, the socio-economic gradient from north to south in Tehran remained aligned with the gradient of ecological desirability, suggesting a shift from natural environmental qualities to the role of capital in shaping real estate values. Keywords: Housing, Ecological Factors, Spatial Correlation, Tehran. Introduction In many cities, houses that are nearly identical can vary significantly in price based on their neighborhood or even specific locations within the same neighborhood. People seek out areas that offer a high quality of life, which is largely influenced by environmental factors. Consequently, these factors play a crucial role in determining real estate values. The spatial variations in housing prices within a geographical area profoundly affect the distribution of socio-economic classes. Wealthier individuals typically have the freedom to choose where they live, often opting for the most desirable neighborhoods that align with favorable ecological conditions. In contrast, lower-income groups often lack this choice and are frequently confined to less desirable areas, sometimes as a result of systemic pressures that limit their options. Access to housing is a fundamental human need and understanding the spatial disparities in housing prices—along with the ecological factors that influence them—can help inform urban management strategies aimed at achieving greater equity in housing distribution. This research sought to explore the extent to which the variations in residential property prices in Tehran were influenced by ecological factors. Materials & Methods This study examined 8 key components that represented ecological factors: climatic elements (precipitation and temperature), green coverage, number of clean air days, river valleys, fault lines, elevation, and slope. The climatic data were collected from 8 meteorological stations. Green coverage was calculated using the land use GIS file for Tehran. The number of clean air days was obtained from data provided by 35 air quality control stations. Information regarding the locations of river valleys, fault lines, and elevation was sourced from the Information and Communication Technology Organization of Tehran Municipality. To create maps for slope and elevation, data from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) layer were utilized. The dependent variable in this analysis was the price per square meter of residential properties (apartments) sold in March 2024 as reported by the Real Estate Website of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development. The analysis was based on 400 points representing the geometric centers of neighborhoods in Tehran, from which housing prices were extracted. To analyze the correlation among variables, each vector layer was converted into a raster layer, allowing for the generation of point layers corresponding to the 400 housing price locations. ArcGIS software was employed, utilizing Spatial Analyst, Spatial Join, and Zonal Statistics functions to create the necessary datasets. The study encompassed the urban area of Tehran, which consisted of 22 municipal districts, covering approximately 615 km² and housing a population of 8.7 million people. Research Findings The findings revealed a clear trend: as one moved from the north to the south of Tehran, the desirability of ecological factors diminished, which corresponded with a decline in housing prices. District 1 located in the northern part of the city offered the most favorable ecological conditions, while District 20 in the south presented the least desirable conditions. Consequently, housing prices increased from south to north with the highest prices found in Districts 1, 2, and 3, while Districts 18, 20, and 21 exhibited the lowest prices. Notably, there was approximately a threefold difference in the average housing price between District 1 and District 20. The correlation coefficient of +0.71 indicated a strong relationship between housing prices and desirability of ecological factors. In areas of Tehran where ecological indicators were more favorable, housing prices tended to be higher. Among the independent variables, the average annual temperature, distance from river valleys, distance from fault lines, and green coverage showed the highest correlation coefficients; however, these relationships were negative, indicating an inverse correlation. This suggested that in locations with higher housing prices, the values of these ecological indicators tended to decrease. Conversely, the indicators of elevation, average annual precipitation, slope, and number of days with clean air exhibited a positive correlation with housing prices. Generally, properties with higher exchange values were situated at greater elevations, received more annual rainfall, and had more favorable slope characteristics and a higher number of clean air days per year. Discussion of Results & Conclusion Tehran has long been characterized by a correspondence between its geographical north and its socio-economic north. This segregation of socio-economic classes—where higher-income groups reside in the northern areas and lower-income groups are pushed to the south—has historical roots linked to the city's expansion during governmental development. Despite the significant impacts of political economy and the sweeping changes brought about by modernism, the socio-economic gradient from north to south remains aligned with the gradient of ecological desirability. This alignment suggests that the socio-economic landscape continues to be influenced by both capital and the inherent ecological characteristics of the environment, reflecting a complex interplay between economic forces and natural desirability.
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