تحلیل انزوای ژئوپلیتیکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
انزوای ژئوپلیتیکی به عنوان نقطه مخالف بین المللی گرایی، جهان گرایی، منطقه گرایی، تعامل، توسعه و در کل عدم درک صحیح کارگزارن از منافع ملی است. انزوای ژئوپلیتیکی، از آنجایی اهمیت دارد، که در شمایل یک مخمصه و دام ترکیبی(خودساخته و دگرساخته)؛ به عنوان یک حالتِ نامطلوب و منفی، قادر است موجودیت کشور درگیر را در معرض خطر و حتی نابودی قرار دهد. در نخستین سال های انقلاب اسلامی، استراتژی هایی چون انزواطلبی، و بعدها بی طرفی و عدم تعهد(دست کم تا فروپاشی شوروی)، بخشی از راهبرد سیاست خارجی نظام سیاسی حاکم، به منظور کنترل آسیب پذیری ها احتمالی و در کل حراست و حفاظت از انقلاب بوده است. به تدریج با تثبیت انقلاب اسلامی، پایان جنگ تحمیلی و البته فروپاشی شوروی؛ سلسله عوامل برآمده از کنش های رفتاری ج.ا.ایران از یک سو، و از دیگر سو واکنش کشورهای رقیب و متخاصم، وضعیتی به وجود آورد، که منطبق بر انزوای ژئوپلیتیکی ج.ا.ایران در شرایط کنونی است. در این راستا سوال اصلی مقاله این است که عوامل مؤثر بر شکل گیری انزوای ژئوپلیتیکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران کدام است؟ نتایج حاصله از این پژوهش کاربردی، با تلفیق روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و روش آماری(با استفاده از پرسشنامه دلفی)، به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر انزوای ژئوپلیتیکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در قالب 6 متغیر(در قالب 31 شاخص) می پردازد. در این پژوهش، ترتیب اهمیت و رتبه بندی متغیرها به وسیله آزمون فریدمن و سطح معنی داری آنها با استفاده از آزمون T-test در بستر تحلیل نرم افزار SPSS انجام پذیرفته است.Analysis of the Geopolitical Isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Introduction Geopolitical isolation stands in stark contrast to internationalism, globalism, regionalism, interaction, and development, often reflecting a lack of understanding or alignment with national interests by external actors. It represents a complex and multifaceted challenge, combining self-imposed and externally imposed factors, which can pose significant risks to a nation’s stability and survival. In the early years following the Islamic Revolution, Iran adopted strategies such as isolationism, and later neutrality and non-alignment, particularly until the dissolution of the Soviet Union. These approaches were integral to the foreign policy of the ruling political system, aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and safeguarding the revolution. Over time, as the Islamic Revolution stabilized, the Iran-Iraq War concluded, and the Soviet Union collapsed, a combination of Iran’s behavioral actions and the responses of rival and adversarial states contributed to a geopolitical environment that has increasingly isolated Iran in the contemporary global landscape. Methodology This study is applied in its purpose and employs a descriptive-analytical approach in terms of nature and methodology. Data collection was conducted through library and documentary research, supplemented by field methods. The library and documentary research drew on authoritative books, articles, historical records, case studies, and domestic and international statistical databases, as well as searches across various digital repositories. For the field component, data collection was guided by library findings and utilized the Delphi method. A total of 144 university professors were selected to participate, with questionnaires distributed among them. Of these, 67 responses were fully completed and utilized for analysis. Discussion Historical Periods of Isolation in the Islamic Republic of Iran The first period, characterized by conceptual and self-imposed isolation, spanned from the victory of the Islamic Revolution on February 11, 1979, to the end of the Iran-Iraq War on June 10, 1987. This era was marked by efforts to consolidate the revolution and protect it from external threats. The second period saw imposed relative isolation, during which Hashemi Rafsanjani’s attempts to de-escalate tensions and normalize relations with the Western world, Europe, and the Arab world were thwarted by persistent hostility from the United States. The third period, under Mohammad Khatami, was defined by attempts to escape isolation. However, the events of September 11, 2001, which placed Iran within the "axis of evil," coupled with the revelation of Iran’s nuclear program in late 2003, led to increased international pressure and further isolation. The fourth period marked a shift toward hybrid isolation. During this time, the securitization of Iran’s nuclear program and Ahmadinejad’s confrontational policies toward international norms, the regional system, and global power structures not only intensified isolation but also damaged Iran’s international reputation. The fifth period, characterized by unwanted hybrid isolation, unfolded despite Hassan Rouhani’s de-escalation efforts. The withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA under the Trump administration, combined with Iran’s deepening involvement in regional crises such as those in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, exacerbated the country’s isolation. Factors Affecting the Geopolitical Isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran The conflict between the political ideology of the Islamic Revolution and the interests of rival powers has been a central factor shaping Iran’s geopolitical developments. The revolutionary ideals and principles have often clashed with the goals of regional and global actors, influencing Iran’s interactions within the geopolitical structure. Iran’s policy of geopolitical territorialization, rooted in its ideological framework, has further contributed to its isolation. Elements such as its explicit opposition to the United States and the international system have positioned Iran in direct conflict with dominant global powers. The country’s alignment with the Eastern Bloc, particularly its close cooperation with Russia and China, has reinforced its confrontational stance toward the United States, inviting additional challenges and pressures. The United States’ imperialist policies, which reject Iran’s role as a hegemonic actor, have consistently targeted Iran over the past four decades. This sustained pressure has posed significant challenges to Iran’s national survival and the stability of its political system. Iran’s relative weakness in national power compared to regional and global competitors has also played a role in its isolation. Statistical evidence highlights the country’s unfavorable position in this regard. Finally, the lack of knowledge and insight among government agents regarding Iran’s geographical and geopolitical context, as well as regional and global issues, has exacerbated the country’s isolation. The failure of foreign policy decision-makers to fully grasp international relations and geopolitical dynamics has trapped Iran in a complex geopolitical predicament. Conclusion This study identified six primary factors, comprising 31 components that have contributed to the geopolitical isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Among these factors, the lack of knowledge and insight among government agents about the country’s geographical and geopolitical situation holds the highest significance, with a score of 14.04. In contrast, Iran’s tendency toward the Eastern Bloc is the least significant factor, scoring 5.31. The findings underscore that the continuation of geopolitical isolation poses a serious threat to Iran’s national and territorial security, as well as its survival. .
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