تحلیل تطبیقی تحولات جمعیت روستایی ایران و جهان
آرشیو
چکیده
تحولات جمعیت روستایی نگرانی هایی را برای آینده روستاها و کارکرد آنها به ویژه از منظر تولید محصولات کشاورزی موجب شده است. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی این تحولات در ایران و جهان با استفاده از تحلیل داده های ثانویه بود. داده ها و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از پایگاه داده های مرکز آمار ایران، سازمان ملل متحد، سازمان همکاری و توسعه اقتصادی (OECD)، سازمان آمار اتحادیه اروپا (Eurostat) و گزارش های داخلی و بین المللی استخراج شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که ساختار جمعیت روستایی به سمت پیری، وابستگی بیشتر و زنانه شدن می گراید؛ همچنین، در بسیاری از کشورهای جهان از جمله ایران، ساختار توزیع سنی جمعیت دیگر شبیه یک هرم نیست و به دیگر سخن، قاعده هرم پهن ترین بخش هرم نیست و به سنین بالاتر منتقل شده و شکل آن به سمت مستطیل گراییده است؛ یعنی، سهم گروه سنی جوان تر در حال کاهش است. برای مدیریت پیامدهای این تحولات و ترمیم شکاف و کمبود نیروی کار کارامد در روستاها، توسعه یکپارچه و ایجاد ارتباط مناسب بین شهر و روستا یکی از مهم ترین رهیافت ها به شمار می رود. در این چارچوب، برای هدایت جریان استعدادها، خدمات، فناوری، کالا و سرمایه به نفع توسعه مناطق روستایی، سرمایه گذاری در زیرساخت ها و جذاب کردن محیط روستا لازم است. همچنین، به منظور حفظ و ارتقای کارکرد تولیدی ساکنان روستا، لازم است تدابیری اندیشیده شود تا افراد مسن روستایی بعد از ورود به دوران پیری همچنان مدت ها کارآ و مولد باشند؛ بدین منظور، باید آنها در دوران سالمندی از لحاظ جسمی و روانی سالم باشند و از طرف دیگر، تا حدودی به دانش روز نیز مجهز باشند. بنابراین، باید در بهداشت، سلامت و کیفیت زندگی سالمندان، قبل از ورود به دوره سالمندی (یعنی، در جوانی و میان سالی) و نیز تجهیز آنها به مهارت ها و دانش معاصر سرمایه گذاری شود.Comparative Analysis of Population Changes in Rural Settlements in Iran and the World
Introduction: Population is a fundamental factor and has a positive role in planning. The trend indicates a decrease in rural population and then, changes in demographic status as well. These changes have been affecting village functions in terms of food security and livelihood. Therefore, this study aimed at explaining rural changes by looking at the demographic change at rural regions in the world and Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in 2024; the data were extracted from national and international databases including Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), United Nations Population Division, Organization for Economic and Co-operation Development (OECD), Eurostat as well as some other reports. Excel was used for data analysis. Results and Discussion: Rural and urban areas in Iran, in line with the world, have undergone transformation due to the modernization policies, land reforms, and development measures. Iran has been experiencing one of the fastest urbanization processes in the world, faster than the global average. Urban and rural population became equal in 1979, and reached to 77 percent in 2024. So, Iran stands alongside Russia, Turkey, Malaysia, the European average and the Central American average. In addition, in the developed countries, the shape of the population age distribution no longer resembles a pyramid. This means that the base of the pyramid is no longer the widest part of the pyramid, but the shape has shifted to rectangular age structure. In Iran, the age structure is also moving towards a rectangular structure. Based on the dependency ratio, Iran is similar to China, Mexico, Turkey, and India. Furthermore, as a result of demographic changes, the feminization of rural society is expected, because women live longer than men, and young men migrate more, which can lead to the feminization of rural society. Based on this indicator, Iran is currently ranked alongside Mexico, Australia, India, and China. Conclusion and Suggestions: The rural regions are being formed with a new population structure in which the share of young people will be less and the elderly and women will be more, reducing the opportunity to promote techniques and skills in these regions. To address such challenges, enhancing the rural-urban partnership is an important approach which interconnects rural-urban areas through different types of linkages including talent, technology, goods, capital and services. If the linkages are well managed, the rural-urban interactions can benefit the rural areas and address the challenges posed by demographic changes and the decline in the youth population. For gaining better achievements and making more benefits to the rural areas from the rural-urban partnership, it is necessary for the government to invest in infrastructure and make the rural environment more attractive. On the other side, the demographic changes may be an opportunity for rural women to participate more in economic activities. Also, in order to maintain and improve the productive function of rural residents, it is necessary to devise measures to ensure that rural elderly people remain efficient and productive for a long time after entering old age; for this purpose, they must be physically and mentally healthy in the old age and, on the other hand, be equipped with up-to-date knowledge to some extent. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in their health, well-being, and life quality before entering the old age (i.e. in youth and middle age). It is also necessary to equip them with contemporary skills and knowledge before entering the old age.
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