بررسی شاخص های جذب گردشگران خارجی به ایران با استفاده از تحلیل پانل و مدل جاذبه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
گردشگری بین المللی به عنوان یکی از ارکان مهم اقتصادی، نقش کلیدی در توسعه کشورها ایفا می کند و با توجه به روند رو به رشد جریان های گردشگری به سمت کشورهای تازه صنعتی شده، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای گردشگری برای برنامه ریزی دقیق تر ضروری است. پژوهش حاضر به شناسایی این عوامل در ایران پرداخته و داده های موردبررسی در این تحقیق برای سال های 1990 تا 2021 در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که درآمد سرانه کشور مبدأ دارای رابطه مثبت و معناداری با تعداد گردشگران ورودی است، درحالی که فاصله جغرافیایی رابطه معکوسی با تقاضای گردشگری دارد. همچنین نرخ تبادل نسبی و شناخت دیدگاه کشور مبدأ نیز به افزایش جذب گردشگران کمک می کند. بر این اساس، پیشنهاد می شود تمرکز بر بازارهای منطقه ای بافاصله کمتر، تسهیل شرایط مالی برای کشورهای با درآمد بالاتر و توسعه زیرساخت ها و تبلیغات بین المللی برای جذب بیشتر گردشگران مد نظر قرار گیرد.Investigating the Indicators of Attracting Foreign Tourists to Iran Using Panel Analysis and the Gravity Model
International tourism plays a significant role in the economic development of countries, particularly in newly industrialized economies. The present study aimed to identify and assess the determinants influencing the demand for foreign tourism to Iran during the period 1990–2021. A quantitative and explanatory research design was employed using a gravity model combined with a panel data approach. The statistical population included countries with considerable tourist flows to Iran. Variables such as per capita income of the origin country, geographical distance, relative exchange rate, relative prices, household debt, and money supply were analyzed. The data were subjected to panel unit root tests, fixed-effects modeling, and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation to handle heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The findings revealed that per capita income, relative exchange rate, and money supply had a positive effect on tourist arrivals, while geographical distance, relative prices, and household debt had negative impacts. It is concluded that a policy focus on regional markets, financial facilitation, competitive pricing, and enhanced infrastructure and promotion strategies can boost Iran’s tourism sector. Introduction Tourism has emerged as a dynamic driver of economic growth, income generation, and cultural exchange. In the global context, international tourism not only contributes significantly to GDP and employment but also plays a central role in enhancing cross-cultural communication and national image. In recent decades, the tourism industry has experienced a shift of flows towards newly industrialized countries, thereby necessitating precise modeling and forecasting of tourism demand for effective planning. Iran, with its cultural heritage, historical attractions, and diverse landscapes, holds strong potential for attracting international tourists. However, identifying and understanding the influencing factors behind tourism demand is crucial for capitalizing on this potential. Research Questions What are the most significant determinants influencing the demand for international tourism to Iran? How do economic and geographical variables such as income, distance, exchange rate, and prices affect inbound tourist arrivals? How can the gravity model and panel data analysis help in evaluating and forecasting tourism flows? Methods and Materials This research adopted an applied and explanatory approach using panel data methodology covering the years 1990 to 2021. The gravity model was employed as the core theoretical framework, which posits that tourist flows between countries are directly related to their economic size and inversely related to the geographical distance. The study analyzed variables such as per capita income of the origin country, geographical distance (in kilometers between capitals), relative exchange rate, relative prices, household debt, and money supply. Data were obtained from reliable international databases, and statistical analysis included unit root testing, F-Limer and Hausman tests for model selection, and final estimation using Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) to control for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Results and Discussion The empirical results indicated that all selected variables were statistically significant. The analysis confirmed: Positive effects: Per capita income of the origin country increased tourism demand. A favorable relative exchange rate enhanced tourists’ purchasing power. An increase in the money supply supported outbound travel. Negative effects: Greater geographical distance reduced tourist arrivals. Higher relative prices in Iran discouraged travel. Higher household debt in origin countries limited travel capacity. These findings are consistent with theoretical expectations from the gravity model and consumer behavior theories. The high explanatory power of the model underscores the reliability of the results for policy formulation. Conclusion The study emphasizes the crucial role of economic and geographical factors in shaping international tourist flows to Iran. It is recommended that policymakers: Focus on attracting tourists from neighboring and geographically closer countries. Facilitate travel conditions and financial processes for tourists from high-income countries. Improve tourism infrastructure and promote competitive pricing. Enhance Iran's international image through targeted advertising campaigns. Implementing these strategies may strengthen Iran’s position in the global tourism market and support the goal of sustainable tourism development.
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