تحلیل اقتصادی تفاوت های استانی در قیمت ها، حاشیه بازاریابی و تولید تخم مرغ در ایران و کاربرد آن برای سیاست های منطقه ای (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تخم مرغ از مهم ترین مواد غذایی ارزان بوده و دارای پروتئین باکیفیت بالا و پایدار است. با وجود امکان انتقال قیمت بین مناطق مختلف و حلقه های مختلف زنجیره عرضه، به دلیل متفاوت بودن قابلیت های منطقه ای و ساختار بازار، تفاوت هایی در مقادیر قیمت ها، حاشیه بازاریابی و تولید در استان های کشور ملاحظه می شود. در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از روش های خوشه بندی سلسله مراتبی و میانگین-کی، به خوشه بندی استان های مختلف کشور بر اساس میانگین قیمت تخم مرغ در سطوح عمده فروشی و خرده فروشی، حاشیه بازاریابی خرده فروشی و تولید در دوره مورد بررسی (از فروردین 1395 تا آذر 1400) پرداخته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که استان های کشور بر اساس قیمت عمده فروشی در چهار خوشه و بر اساس قیمت های خرده فروشی، حاشیه بازاریابی خرده فروشی و میزان تولید در سه خوشه قرار گرفته اند؛ میانگین قیمت عمده فروشی خوشه ها در دامنه 149111 ریال برای خوشه یک تا 193789/33 ریال برای خوشه چهار به ازای هر کیلوگرم متغیر است؛ همچنین، میانگین قیمت خرده فروشی خوشه ها در دامنه 175140/7 ریال برای خوشه یک تا 218120/24 ریال برای خوشه سه به ازای هر کیلوگرم متغیر است. از این رو، با توجه به دامنه زیاد تفاوت های منطقه ای قیمت ها، مشخص کردن قیمت واحد برای تنظیم بازار تخم مرغ در سطح کشور درست به نظر نمی رسد. افزون بر این، هیچ کدام از استان های تولیدکننده عمده تخم مرغ از نظر قیمت عمده فروشی یا خرده فروشی در خوشه یک (کمترین قیمت) قرار نگرفته اند. بنابراین، برای انتقال قیمت بین استان های مختلف و کمتر شدن تفاوت ها و نوسان های قیمتی، نقش عوامل بازاریابی و ساختار بازار مهم تر از میزان تولید و عرضه بوده و لازم است که در تصمیم گیری ها، به ویژه بدین عوامل توجه شود.An Economic Analysis of Provincial Differences in Egg Prices, Marketing Margins and Production in Iran and Its Applications for Regional Policies
Introduction: Eggs are among the most important, affordable, and sustainable food items, offering a rich source of high-quality protein. However, fluctuations in egg prices and production input costs present significant challenges to Iran's poultry industry, leading to annual market imbalances. Despite the potential for price transmission across regions and links in the supply chain, differences in regional capacities and market structures contribute to disparities in prices, marketing margins, and production volumes. As the 14th largest global egg producer, Iran holds considerable influence in Western and Middle Eastern Asia. Nevertheless, price volatility and input variability continue to disrupt the poultry sector, challenging market stability. Understanding regional price disparities within Iranian provinces is crucial for developing effective policies to stabilize egg prices. Despite its importance, this issue has been insufficiently studied. Therefore, this research aimed at clustering the provinces based on average egg prices at wholesale and retail levels, production volumes, and retail marketing margins. Materials and Methods: In this study, clustering was performed using hierarchical and K-means methods, and a comparison of cluster means was conducted using SPSS software. The data required for the analysis included average monthly nominal prices for eggs at both wholesale and retail levels as well as average egg production across all provinces in Iran. The period of investigation spaned from April 2015 to December 2019. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that the provinces of Iran were divided into four clusters based on wholesale prices and three clusters based on retail prices, retail marketing margins, and production volumes. The lowest wholesale and retail prices were found in Cluster 1, including the provinces of Semnan, Qom, and Kermanshah. The highest wholesale prices were in Cluster 4, comprising the provinces of Khuzestan, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Jiroft and Kahnuj, and Kurdistan. The highest retail prices were in Cluster 3, including the provinces of East Azarbaijan, West Azarbaijan, Ardabil, Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Jiroft and Kahnuj, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Khuzestan, Zanjan, Fars, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Guilan, and Hormozgan. The average wholesale prices across clusters ranged from 149,111 IRI rials/kg in Cluster 1 to 193,789.33 IRI rials/kg in Cluster 4, while average retail prices ranged from 175,140.7 IRI rials/kg in Cluster 1 to 218,120.24 IRI rials/kg in Cluster 3. Therefore, there was a wide range of regional differences in egg prices across the country. Both hierarchical and K-means clustering methods indicated that the provinces of Ilam, Fars, and Tehran had the largest retail marketing margins, placing them in Cluster 3. The ten main egg-producing provinces including Tehran, Isfahan, Razavi Khorasan, East Azerbaijan, Qazvin, Alborz, Mazandaran, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Fars, and Sistan and Baluchistan were distributed across Clusters 2 and 3. Cluster 1, representing the provinces with the lowest production and prices (Semnan, Qom, and Kermanshah), did not include any of the major egg-producing provinces. Conclusion and Suggestions: Considering the wide range of regional price differences across clusters, setting a single price to regulate the egg market at the national level does not appear appropriate. To facilitate the price transmission between the provinces and reduce the price disparities and fluctuations, the roles of marketing agents and market structure are more critical than production volume and supply. Therefore, it is essential to take these factors into account when making regulatory decisions.
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