تبیین الگوی چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی و نأثیر آن بر امنیت اقتصادی، مطالعه موردی: استان بوشهر (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کمبود منابع آب واژه ای است که با ورود به قرن بیست ویک بیشتر با آن مواجه هستیم. ایران به ویژه استان بوشهر به دلایل مختلف از جمله رشد جمعیت، فرایند صنعتی شدن، کمبود بارش، خشک سالی های پیاپی، برداشت بی رویه از منابع آب با چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی روبرو است. پژوهش حاضر در صدد تبیین و ارزیابی چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی استان بوشهر و تأثیر آن بر امنیت اقتصادی استان بوده است. روش این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی، از نظر ماهیت اکتشافی و از نظر داده ترکیبی است، به این ترتیب که داده های کیفی پژوهش از طریق واکاوی متون و رجوع به خبرگان به وسیله ابزار مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته گردآوری گردید. در فاز کمی پژوهش، داده ها با استفاده از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته به کمک 165 نفر از کارشناسان حوزه آب و با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری خوشه ای چندمرحله ای جمع آوری گردید. تجزیه وتحلیل این پژوهش در دو بخش کیفی و کمی صورت گرفته است. در بخش کیفی از تحلیل مضامین از طریق فرایند کدگذاری نظری در سه مرحله کدگذاری باز، محوری و گزینشی انجام شده است. در بخش کمی با استفاده از نرم افزارهای SPSS و Smart-PLS به تحلیل داده ها در دو بخش توصیفی و استنباطی پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می دهد که دو نوع چالش هیدروپلیتیکی برون استانی و درون استانی تأثیرگذار بر امنیت اقتصادی استان، قابل تبیین است، با توجه به یافته های به دست آمده از ارزیابی کلی مدل تحقیق، فرضیه کلی پژوهش مبنی بر اینکه چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی استان بوشهر بر امنیت اقتصادی استان تأثیرگذار است، مورد تأیید واقع شده است.Explaining the pattern of hydropolitic challenges and its impact on economic security (case study: Bushehr province)
Extended IntroductionBased on the arid and semi-arid region of the south of the country, Bushehr province receives a large part of its water needs from the water resources of the neighboring provinces of Fars, Kohgiluyeh, and Boyer Ahmad, with successive droughts and little and irregular rainfall; thus it is facing a water challenge. Due to the existing conditions and the reduction of water resources in the neighboring provinces, there is a possibility of water cuts, conflicts, and hydropolitical tensions. Lack of water, in addition to its effect on economic security and creating local and regional tensions, the development process of this province faces a problem. It is expected that if this trend continues, the province will face more hydropolitical challenges in the future. The current research aims to explain and evaluate the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and its effect on the economic security of the province. This research seeks to answer the following question:-What are the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and what is its effect on the economic security of the province? MethodologyIn terms of the purpose, the present research is applied in terms of exploratory nature and in terms of mixed data, which means that in the qualitative phase of the research, semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, as well as indirect observation (reading of texts), were used. In the quantitative phase of the research, a survey study was used to collect data. Then, based on the organized themes of the qualitative phase, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed in the form of a five-point Likert scale, and after validation and reliability, 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method. Completed Finally, after coding, extracting and using SPSS26 and Smart-PLS statistical software, the research data were tested and interpreted in two sections: descriptive and inferential. Result and discussionThe research findings have been made in two parts as qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part, after reviewing the texts and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, they have been analyzed. After discovering and enumerating, the conceptual model of Bushehr province's hydropolitical challenges and economic security of Bushehr province has been drawn. In the quantitative section, after coding, the data obtained from the questionnaire were extracted and transferred to SPSS26 and Smart-PLS software and were analyzed and interpreted in two parts: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. The independent variable of hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province is above the average level with 45.466 (with a test average or cut-off line of 36), and the dependent variable of economic security with 80.392 (with a test average or cut-off line of 63). Therefore, it indicates that the amount of hydropolitical challenges in Bushehr province is relatively high because this rate is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions. The second and third hypotheses of the research have been confirmed at the error level of 0.01. However, the first hypothesis has not been confirmed, considering that the T test value is below 1.96. ConclusionThe descriptive findings of the research show that the independent variable of Bushehr province's hydropolitical challenges with an average of 45.466, and its dimensions include extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 6.406 and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 39.060 and the dependent variable of economic security with an average of 80.3925 in the statistical population under investigation is above the test average or the cut-off line. Therefore, they are not in a favorable situation because their level is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions measured by the variables. The inferential findings of the research also show the first hypothesis of the research, "There is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and the economic security of the province," according to the T value of 0.848 is less than 1.96 and its significance level is more significant than 0.05. As a result, this hypothesis is rejected. The second hypothesis of the research, "there is a significant effect between intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and economic security of the province," its T value is 3.220, which is greater than 2.58. Therefore, its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis of the research, "there is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges," its T value is equal to 3.04, which shows that its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the third hypothesis is also confirmed. According to the findings obtained from the evaluation of the research model, the research's general hypothesis that Bushehr's hydropolitical challenges affect the economic security of the province is confirmed. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ ContributionAuthors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of InterestAuthors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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