سنجش مزیت نسبی فعالیت های اقتصادی در استان گیلان: رهیافت مدل اقتصاد پایه و مدل تغییر سهم (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در مبحث اقتصاد منطقه ای، با توجه به محدودیت منابع موجود، شناخت ویژگی ها و مزیت های اقتصادی هر منطقه، امکان برنامه ریزی بهتر را در جهت تحقق اهداف توسعه فراهم می نماید. از این رو، هدف مطالعه حاضر تحلیل وضعیت مزیت نسبی بخش های مختلف اقتصادی استان گیلان در سال های 1393، 1395 و 1397، تحلیل مزیت رقابتی بخش ها و تعیین وضعیت ارزش ا فز وده بخش ها در استان گیلان نسبت به کشور طی سال های 1397-1393 است. برای این منظور از مدل اقتصاد پایه و شاخص ضریب مکانی و مدل تغییر سهم استفاده می شود. نتایج مطالعه نشان می دهد که استان گیلان در سال های 1395 و 1397 در بخش کشاورزی دارای مزیت نسبی بوده و در حوزه فعالیت برنده اقتصادی قرار داشته و دارای مزیت بالقوه برای رشد اقتصادی است. بخش های مربوط به کشاورزی، ساختمان، عمده فروشی، خرده فروشی، تعمیر وسایل نقلیه و کالاها، فعالیت های خدماتی مربوط به تأمین جا و غذا، فعالیت های اداری و خدمات پشتیبانی، اداره امور عمومی و خدمات شهری و آموزش دارای مزیت رقابتی بوده و روند رو به اعتلا را در سال های مورد مطالعه طی کرده اند. نتایج مدل تغییر سهم نشان می دهد که در بخش مربوط به کشاورزی و فعالیت های خدماتی مربوط به فعالیت های مالی و بیمه استان گیلان نسبت به کشور عملکرد بهتری داشته اما در بخش مربوط به فعالیت های حرفه ای و علمی کشور نسبت به استان گیلان عملکرد بهتری را طی کرده است.Measuring the Comparative Advantage of Economic Activities in Guilān Province: The Approach of the Basic Economy Model and the Shift Share Model
Considering the limited available resources, in the field of regional economy, knowing the characteristics and economic advantages of each region provides the possibility of better planning in order to achieve development goals. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the comparative advantage of different economic sectors in Guilān province in 2014, 2016 and 2018, analyze the competitive advantage of sectors and determine the value added of sectors in Guilān province compared to the country during 2014-2016. For this purpose, the basic economy model and spatial coefficient index and shift share model were used. The results of the study showed that Guilān province in 2016 and 2018 has a relarive advantage in the agricultural sector and is in the field of economic activity and has a potential advantage for economic growth. Sectors related to agriculture, construction, wholesale, retail, vehicle and goods repair, food and shelter service activities, administrative and support services, public affairs and municipal services, and education have a competitive advantage and have undergone an upward trend in the years under study. The results of the share change model show that in the sector related to agriculture and service activities related to financial and insurance activities, Guilan province has the best performance in the country, but in the sector related to professional and scientific activities, the country has a better performance than Guilān province. Extended Abstract Introduction The study of regional economic structure is useful for explaining changes in regional economics, predicting the consequences of economic decisions, and future planning. The economy of a region mainly depends on the strength and weakness of various economic sectors in it, the dynamics of the industrial structure, and the unique regional factors. Although paying attention to macro policies in regional policies is accepted as a general principle, this does not mean that what is appropriate at the national level will be profitable for all regions. Therefore, ignoring the facilities, capabilities and comparative advantages of the region in the field of economic activities has caused investments not to be equivalent with the capacities of the regions. In this regard, the use of analytical models of spatial coefficients, shift share, data-output techniques, regional coefficients of the basic economy and ranking prioritization, provides the basis for examining the effect of different economic activities and their comparative evaluation to determine the opportunity and improving the performance of the regional economy structure. Guilān province is one of the northern provinces of Iran; despite having rich natural resources, climate diversity, abundant water, vast plains, young workforce, abundant tourism capabilities, in recent years, it has not been able to gain a proper share of the national economy in proportion to their capabilities and opportunities. Therefore, in the present study, we first sought to evaluate the comparative advantages in different economic sectors in Guilān province based on the LQ index (spatial coefficient); because recognizing the comparative advantage of a province in the field of economic activities is the most important link in the development process that provides the possibility of job creation. Then, through the shift share method, the value added situation of major sectors and groups of economic activities in Guilān province was analyzed compared to the country during the years 2014-2018. Methodology The present study was an applied research in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive research in terms of information analysis. The required statistical data was collected from the statistical yearbooks section of the Statistics Center of Iran using the library method. The statistical population of this study was Guilān province in 2014, 2016 and 2018. The measurement tools of the present study were the basic economy model and spatial coefficient index and the shift share model. Results and discussion In the studied years, except for the mining sectors, industry, electricity supply, steam and air conditioning, information and communication, service activities related to financial and insurance activities, professional and scientific activities, administrative activities and Support services, other departments are evaluated as basic. It is noteworthy that in the three years under study, there was no change in the basic or non-basic part of the department, so that if a part was evaluated as a non-basic part in 2014, the non-basic part was evaluated in 2018. The sectors of mining, industry, electricity supply, steam and air conditioning, information and communication, service activities related to financial and insurance activities and professional and scientific activities due to being non-basic in 2013 and 2017 have been evaluated as sectors without competitive advantage. Transportation, warehousing and post sectors and activities related to human health and social work have been evaluated as sectors with a fixed competitive advantage over time; because the value of spatial coefficient has been almost constant during the studied period. The results of the shift share model showed that the growth rate of the country's economy as a whole (A) is 1.04. The structure of the country's economic sectors (B) in different sectors of activity showed the rise of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing sectors, industry, mining, electricity supply, service activities related to financial and insurance activities and professional and scientific activities. In the meantime, the sector related to electricity supply and financial and insurance activities has performed better. Also, in the analysis of the performance element of each sector in the province (C), service activities related to financial and insurance activities have the highest positive coefficient and real estate has the highest negative coefficient. It should be noted that in the sector related to agriculture and service activities related to financial and insurance activities, Guilān province performed better than the country, but in the sector related to professional and scientific activities, the country performed better than Guilān province. Conclusion Therefore, it is necessary for the provincial authorities to emphasize the spatial organization and geographical distribution of population and activities in accordance with the development plans, according to the relative advantages of each region. They should adopt their strategies and policies by identifying the basic sectors and activities that have a relative advantage in such a way that the priority is to invest in the basic and main activities. So that the support policies are directed towards these activities in order to achieve the economic growth of the regions. Considering that Guilan province has a relative advantage in the sector related to agriculture, it is necessary for provincial officials to pay attention to this sector. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the persons for scientific consulting in this paper.
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