تبیین تأثیر طرح ابتکار کمربند-جاده چین بر ژئواکونومی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
چین با احیای جاده ابریشم باستانی، در قالب طرح ابتکار کمربند- جاده، که یکی از بزرگ ترین پروژه های قرن است، در نظر دارد با حضور در عرصه اقتصاد جهانی، به مقابله با نظام اقتصادی تک قطبی آمریکا برود. رویکرد صرفاً اقتصادی چین، بسیاری از کشورهای مسیر طرح ابتکار کمربند- جاده را به حضور در این پروژه تشویق کرده است. این طرح تأثیرات زیادی بر کشورهای مسیر طرح از جمله ایران خواهد داشت. این پژوهش در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که جایگاه ایران در طرح کمربند- جاده چیست و این طرح چه پیامدهایی بر ژئواکونومی ایران خواهد داشت. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش تحقیق، توصیفی - تحلیلی است و از نظر گردآوری اطلاعات کتابخانه ای و استفاده از منابع کتابخانه ای، اینترنت و مصاحبه با صاحبنظران می باشد که در مرحله اول با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS و در مرحله دوم با استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک ارزیابی شده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان می دهد اجرای موفق طرح ابتکار کمربند –جاده، موجب افزایش همکاری های اقتصادی در منطقه، احیای موقعیت ژئواکونومیک ایران و حضور فعال تر ایران در همکاری های غیر غربی می گردد. دیدگاه های ضد و نقیض برخی رقیبان این طرح اقتصادی موجب شده است تا نتوانند برتری و ابتکار عمل چین در ایجاد آن را بپذیرند؛ بنابراین با نگاه جنگ اقتصادی به مقابله با این طرح پرداخته اند. نتایج به دست آمده از واکاوی و تبیین طرح ابتکار کمربند- جاده و شفاف سازی روابط اقتصادی- تجاری میان ایران و چین نشان می دهد علیرغم اینکه ایران در این طرح موقعیت مرکزی دارد و در مرکز جغرافیایی طرح قرار گرفته اما به خوبی از مزایای این پروژه بهره نبرده است.Explanation of the "China Belt & Road Initiative" Effect on Iran's Geoeconomics
1- INTRODUCTION
By reviving the ancient Silk Road as part of the Belt & Road Initiative, one of the largest projects of the century, China intends to challenge the US unipolar international economic system by participation in the global economy. China's purely economic approach has encouraged many countries along the route of the Belt & Road Initiative to participate in this project. This plan will have a great impact on the countries along the plan, including Iran. Since Iran is geographically in the middle of the Belt and Road Initiative map, it can actively participate in this project to restore its former position on the Ancient Silk Road and improve its geographical position toward a geopolitical position. The present study seeks to answer the question of what is the position of Iran in the belt and road initiative project and what consequences this project will have on Iran's geoeconomics.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Within the paradigm framework of global marine-based and land-based strategies competitions, today two large geostrategic faults have formed on a spherical scale in western and eastern Eurasia, which seems to be the source of current world policies. In fact, the level of global geostrategic confrontation is wide-spreading on both sides of the Eurasian land so that on the one hand in the east (on the surface of the land fault of Eurasia with the Pacific) and on the other hand in the west (on the surface of the fault of the Eurasian continents with Europe and Africa).
These collisions have spread on the one hand in the east (on the surface of the land fault of Eurasia with the Pacific) and on the other hand in the west (on the surface of the fault of the Eurasian continents with Europe and Africa). On either side of each of these faults are major global power actors. On one side of this strategic fault lies China, which claims to be a world power. Although Chinese leaders have repeatedly stated that they have no motive to be the world most power, the China's Road & Belt initiative project shows that China is seeking to expand its spatial influence and the plan will bring many countries under its control.
In the introduction of the plan document, the One Belt-One Road project is introduced as a system project based on consultation and collective interest between China and the countries involved in the project, which integrates the development plans of the participating countries and creates a new kind of mutually beneficial cooperation between the countries of the three continents (Asia, Europe and Africa), and the spirit of the project is "open regional cooperation" that does not seek to limit any country.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The data collection has been done using library resources, internet, researcher-made questionnaire, and interviews with experts. This research uses the Active Geostrategic Faults in the World theory in order to review the Belt & Road Initiative. Academic experts were consulted about the accuracy of the findings and the effectiveness of each of the variables, and after receiving their comments, the questionnaire items validity was confirmed. The statistical population in this study is foreign affairs experts and specialists in various fields such as political geography, international relations, political economy and so on. The questionnaire was completed by 70 experts from the different fields. Data analysis was evaluated in the first stage using SPSS software and in the second stage using MICMAC software.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The Belt & Road Initiative is an opportunity for development for Iran as it encourages further cooperation and development with China and other members of this plan. Iran is at the heart of the Belt & Road Initiative, and the path to achieving the goals of the plan will be difficult without Iran's cooperation. Since the Belt & Road Initiative is not just an economic project but also has broader dimensions, it is assumed that China's proposal, given its potential to strengthen regionalism, will be effective shaping the new arrangements of the Eurasian region including Iran and its surrounding region.
This multilateral plan will bring good achievements for Iran, which, in addition to these achievements, will face many threats and harms to Iran. As the most important strategy of this plan, it can be pointed to definition and stabilization Iran's position in the plan, which is the most important and basic strategy for Iran. The issue of proper management for the implementation of this plan is the second most important strategic issue for Iran to prevent the harms of Iran being excluded from the plan and being deprived of the benefits of the plan, and on the other hand, the cost and inconsistency of internal organizations should be prevented and the confusion and damages caused by it should be avoided.
The most important opportunities: expanding the regional both cooperation and convergence and reducing Iran country's geoeconomic isolation, attracting foreign investment and entry of plan involved companies into Iran, establishing infrastructure links between Iran and key Eurasian countries, increasing Iran's geopolitical weight, and using Iran's transit position etc.
Major threats: China's loans-debts trap, sanctions and pressure from plan rivals, economic dependence, concerns of major powers (US, Russia, India, Japan, EU, etc.), Chinese military (incompatibility with Iran's interests), and increasing regional competition etc.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Iran must define and consolidate its special geopolitical and geostrategic position and economic advantages for China and the world in such a way that it can play a pivotal role in the road & belt initiative. If the plan is successful, it will increase economic cooperation in the region, revive Iran's geoeconomic position and make Iran more active in non-Western cooperation. And if the one belt & one road initiative in Iran fails, it will cause serious damage to the environment, create double pressure from China on Iran, impair Iran's stability due to increased debts arising from the plan, make rates competitive in Iran, and lack of Iran government control on the rates, the excessive import of cheap Chinese goods and the inability of Iranian goods to compete, the surplus of Chinese economic output toward Iran and unemployment and factory closures.
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